748
FXUS61 KBTV 121424
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1024 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and quiet weather is expected today with highs ranging from the
upper 20s to upper 30s. Warmer temperatures return for Thursday with
much above normal temperatures expected over this upcoming weekend.
These much above temperatures will cause significant snow melt,
along with sharp rises on streams and rivers across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1018 AM EDT...The current forecast remains in good shape,
with just a few minor adjustments needed to reflect recent
observations. Temperatures across the region are generally
sitting in the 20s to low 30s, although some of the colder spots
have yet to climb out of the teens. High clouds have begun to
stream into the region, with increasing clouds expected through
the afternoon.

Previous discussion below:
RAP sfc analysis places a cold 1020mb high pres just south of
Hudson Bay, where temps underneath this high are btwn -10F and
-20F, however just a glancing blow of cold air is impacting our
cwa today. Temps are tricky today with llvl caa continuing along
with intervals of mid/upper lvl clouds in the jet stream winds
aloft. Thinking clouds and progged 925mb temps btwn -6C and -10C
support highs upper 20s to upper 30s acrs most of the area.
GOES-16 water vapor imagery does indicate a weak embedded 5h
vort acrs the western/central Great Lakes region this morning,
with a pocket of cooler cloud tops, that is progged to move acrs
our central/southern cwa this aftn/evening. Have noted both the
GFS/NAM indicate light progged reflectivity returns acrs our
southern cwa, but feel northerly flow around sfc high pres wl
advect in drier bl dwpts resulting in mostly virga. However, a
few flurries are possible over the High Peaks into the mtns of
central/southern VT this aftn/evening. Tonight temps continue to
be a challenge as sfc high pres is north of our cwa and lobes
of mid lvl moisture continue to move acrs our fa. In addition,
south/southeast flow begins to develop toward sunrise with
progged 925mb temps increasing btwn -3C and -5C. Given
uncertainty in winds and clouds have stuck close to NBM, which
results in lows mid teens to mid 20s. Thursday is quiet again
with temps warming back into the mid 30s NEK to mid 40s to near
50F in some warmer valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...Temperatures will continue on an upward
climb to end out the work week as southerly flow advects in plenty
of warmer air. Temperatures at the 850mb level will soar to 7 or 8 C
by the end of Friday night. Surface lows Thursday night in the lower
20s to lower 30s will become lows Friday night in the mid 30s to
lower 40s with increasing clouds. Friday will likely see
temperatures rise into at least the 50s for most of the forecast
area with plentiful sunshine greeting the northern Champlain Valley.
These extremely mild temperatures coupled with surging dew points in
the 30s will contribute to additional snowmelt, particularly when we
begin to see above freezing temps through the entire night. While
there could be plenty of puddles and some slight rises on rivers and
streams, concern for any flooding is more likely over the
weekend/early next week. More below.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...Minor to moderate river flooding is
possible due to a prolonged period of warm conditions and moderate
to heavy rainfall this weekend.

Strong southerly flow is expected to continue to propel temperatures
into the mid to upper 60s by Sunday, with lows failing to fall below
the 40s much of the weekend. Dew points look to be mild as well,
helping to increase the speed of snowmelt, with forecast DPs as high
as the upper 40s and lower 50s on Sunday. An upper level trough and
frontal boundaries will bring increased chances of precipitation,
most likely in the form of rain due to the warm temperatures.
Rainfall is most likely to occur Saturday night through Sunday
night, contributing about 0.50-1.00" of precipitation widespread in
a given 24 hour time frame. There are still some details that need
to be ironed out as the event grows closer and models grow more
precise, but based on what we are seeing, there is the potential for
minor to moderate river flooding across the forecast area,
especially for flashy basins. Most areas below 2000 feet may very
well be saying goodbye to their snowpack altogether. The Weather
Prediction Center has placed a Marginal Risk (at least 5% risk of
exceeding flash flood guidance) over most of the forecast area for
Saturday/Saturday night. While primarily a river flooding threat, if
rainfall rates are on the heavier side, this may provide opportunity
for flash flooding to occur. Behind the system, during the first
half of next the work week, we`re looking at drier conditions and
more seasonable temperatures, though there remains a good amount of
variability in model solutions for temperatures during the Monday-
Wednesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...High confidence of VFR conditions over
the next 12 to 24 hours as sfc high pressure builds into our taf
sites. Clouds will thicken this afternoon across our taf sites
with some light snow possible over the higher terrain late today
into this evening. Thinking visibility will not be impacted at
our sites with cigs between 5000 and 10000 feet agl.
North/northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becomes light and variable
by mid afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The confidence is increasing for the potential of minor to moderate
river flooding Sunday into Monday due to the combination of
snowmelt/rainfall and or ice jams. Much above normal
temperatures are expected by the end of this week into this
upcoming weekend, which will result in significant snow melt.
This combined with several rounds of showers this weekend will
cause sharp rises on streams and rivers across the region.
Current forecasts indicate rainfall between 0.50 and 1.0 inch is
expected, with localized amounts up to 1.5" possible. A flood
watch maybe needed later this week for the upcoming weekend
flood potential. Considering persistent trends in the forecast,
it is a good idea to go over your plans concerning river
flooding.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Taber
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Taber
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV