340
FXUS61 KBTV 292322
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
722 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another warm and muggy night anticipated across the North Country
with low temperatures between 60 and 70 degrees. A series of
boundaries will move across our region on Wednesday with scattered
showers and thunderstorms, as temperatures climb back into the 80s.
Much cooler air arrives for late week with some lingering showers
possible over southern Vermont on Thursday into Friday, before
clearing develops for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 146 PM EDT Tuesday...GOES 19 mid lvl water vapor shows westerly
flow aloft with pockets of mid lvl moisture, helping in the
development of shallow altocumulus clouds. These clouds may linger
into the overnight hours, especially northern NY and limit areal
coverage of fog. In addition, bl to 925mb wind fields increase over
northern NY after 06z at 5 to 15 knots, which should minimize fog
potential. Feel greatest potential for lighter winds and clearer
skies wl be over central/eastern VT valleys and have placed patchy
fog into the grids, including the Newport area. Lows generally in
the upper 50s to near 70F with some mugginess in the air.

On Weds several boundaries wl swing acrs our cwa helping in the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Pre-storm
environmental conditions support a marginal threat for a few
stronger/severe storms possible, with greatest potential over
central/southern and eastern VT. Sounding analysis indicates 1000 to
1500 J/kg of CAPE while 0 to 6 km shear is in the 45 to 55 knot
range, but mostly driven off 500mb winds of 50 to 60 knots acrs our
central/northern cwa. Feel the best potential for a few stronger
storms wl be associated with pre-frontal trof feature btwn 16z-21z,
when instability and shear is better, but sfc convergence is minimal
and lags the actual cold frnt which arrives near the International
Border around 22z, when instability is decreasing. Classic North
Country convection that wl require us to be watching the radar for
trends on Weds. Highs generally in the 80s, except lower 90s near
VSF. As steering flow becomes west/northwest additional wildfire
smoke from both the Canadian and fires over southern Utah/northern
Arizona.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 146 PM EDT Tuesday...Fcst challenge for the short term is
placement and movement of potential additional qpf/pops late Thurs
into Thurs night. Guidance conts to show a large spread in qpf/pop
placement from north to south acrs our region and most of New
England in general. Large scale synoptic pattern is rather messy
with multiple embedded convectively induced s/w`s and developing
northern stream mid/upper lvl trof, resulting in fast confluent flow
aloft acrs our region. These complex mid/upper lvl patterns
involving convective evolution typically have very low
predictability in the short term, so I have made very minimal
changes, to avoid flip flopping. This included keeping the highest
chc/low likely mainly along and south of Route 4 late Thurs into
Thurs night and keeping showing a tight north to south gradient with
pops and qpf. Did note the 13Z NBM indicates 50 to 60% probability
of qpf>0.50" mainly south of Route 4, while the GEFS shows mean qpf
values in the 0.10 to 0.25 acrs southern Rutland/Windsor Counties.
The latest 12z GFS is much drier with pw values 1 to 2 STD below
normal, as sfc high pres advects in much cooler and drier air from
central Canada, while the NAM is much more aggressive with pops/qpf.
Also, given the lack of a closed 7/5h circulation and fast mid lvl
flow, feel the system may become sheared apart with mostly
sprinkles/virga impacting our southern cwa, while much drier air
undercuts the deeper moisture aloft on Thurs night. Temps wl be much
cooler on Thurs with highs upper 60s to mid 70s. Lows are tricky on
Thurs night with values ranging from the upper 30s to upper 50s.
Coolest northern sections and warmest near Rutland/Springfield due
to thicker clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 152 PM EDT Tuesday...Surface high pressure continues to build
south on Friday and looks to remain centered over the region into
the middle of next week, causing an extended period of dry weather.
Through the weekend, temperatures should remain around or below
climatological normals. Lows should fall into the 40s and 50s in
most areas, though the upper 30s are increasingly likely in the
coldest hollows. A warming trend will send temperatures back
slightly above average as next week progresses, but the humidity
will remain low. No significant heat is expected in the near future.
The extended dry period combined with a series of days with low
relative humidities will increase fire weather concerns, especially
across parts of southern Vermont that already have dry soils and
some fire activity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are present at all TAF sites at this time. As
temperatures cool overnight, we will see patchy fog develop in our
favored areas. High clouds moving in from the north may prevent the
worst of the fog from developing or sticking around. The clouds will
move into the Dacks first, leading to a less persistent fog after
08z. MPV and EFK seem poised for more durable reduced visibility.
The fog burns off in the morning, returning all sites to VFR.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop tomorrow afternoon,
bringing the potential for reduced visibility along with heavy
rain.&&

.MARINE...

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Langbauer