408
FXUS61 KBTV 111031
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
631 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures continue Monday and Tuesday before a front cools us
down on Wednesday. Many locations will see an official heat wave
today, with the third consecutive day reaching 90F. The hottest day
will be Tuesday, with heat indices exceeding 95F in the Champlain
and Saint Lawrence Valleys. Wednesday`s front will cool temperatures
down 5-10 degrees and bring the chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT
Monday...A near persistence forecast is on tap today. BTV
reached 95F yesterday, which matches the NBM 50th percentile for
Monday. The saving grace is the relatively low humidity
levels.RH values will fall below 40% for the warmest locations
while staying near 50% for some of the cooler locations. This
leads to a scenario where temperatures are actually warmer than
heat index values. While we held off on issuing a heat advisory
today, caution should be used for sensitive groups as well as
anyone planning on being outside for extended periods of time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM EDT
Monday...A heat advisory is in effect for Tuesday and Tuesday
night for the Saint Lawrence Valley and portions of the northern
Champlain Valley an northern Vermont. Temperatures increase
another degree or two on Tuesday under the strong high pressure
system. Even the cooler, high elevation locations will be
reaching well into the 80s Tuesday. This will mark the 4th
consecutive day of hot temperatures. As such, extra care should
be taken as heat impacts are cumulative. Take breaks when
working outside and stay hydrated.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT Monday...A front will pass through on Wednesday,
bringing temperatures back down below 90 for most locations. There
are signs the front will fall apart or retrograde as the day goes
on, so southern Vermont risks seeing a fifth straight day of hot
temperatures. The lackluster forcing with the front could produce a
few thunderstorms in the Saint Lawrence Valley and into the
Champlain Valley. The best locations will be near the International
Border. Most locations will see rain, but this won`t be a soaker.
Ensemble data indicates the 50th percentile accumulation is around a
quarter of an inch for northern areas. Southern Vermont should see
between 0.05" and 0.1". Thursday and Friday will be considerably
cooler than we`ve been seeing, but a warmup is in store once we get
to next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...A blocked pattern will lead to similar
dry and clear conditions with limited fog potential for this
evening.

Surface winds will generally light south/southwesterly, with
the exception of MSS/PBG - valley channeling and lake breeze
influences, respectively, will again produce sustained winds
above 10 knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record daily high temperatures are likely on Monday, August 11,
and Tuesday, August 12. Below are some of the records in
jeopardy of being broken:

Max Temp Records

August 11th - Forecast|Record (Year)
KBTV         KMPV        KMSS        KPBG        KSLK
             90|90(2016) 94|93(2016) 92|91(1970) 89|93(1944)

August 12th - Forecast|Record (Year)
KBTV         KMPV        KMSS        KPBG        KSLK
95|93(2002)  91|89(2021) 93|91(1988) 93|90(2007) 89|93(1944)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
     VTZ001-002-005-009-016-017.
NY...Heat Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
     NYZ026>028-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Langbauer
NEAR TERM...Langbauer
SHORT TERM...Langbauer
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Verasamy
CLIMATE...WFO BTV