183
FXUS61 KBTV 140452
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1252 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
With the prolonged period of hot weather now in the rear-view
mirror, a return to more season weather is expected through the
weekend before a more significant cooldown impacts the region next
week. A cold front on Sunday could bring some showers and
thunderstorms to the region but overall dryness is expected through
the next 7 days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1252 AM EDT Thursday...A few remaining showers continue across
northern New York early this morning ahead of a stalled frontal
boundary. We have seen a few flashes and cloud to ground strikes
over the past few hours but the remaining instability appears to be
elevated. Other than some beneficial rainfall, no concerns with
these showers/storms are expected before they dissipate prior to
sunrise. Models have been hinting at widespread valley fog across
the region early this morning which is currently being backed up by
observations across the region with visibilities below 2 miles. The
idea that patchy dense fog is expected overnight remains the same
with improvement occurring rapidly between 7 and 9 AM. The remainder
of the day today looks rather uneventful as a secondary cold front
catches up to the stalled frontal boundary and finally pushes east
of the area. This will allow for cooler temperatures to dewpoints to
descent across the region this afternoon. The more noticeable
impacts will be tonight as decreasing dewpoints, light winds, and
clear skies will allow for significant radiational cooling. For the
most part, temperatures will drop into the low to mid 50s but the
colder hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom could drop
into the mid 40s. With significant drying at the surface expected,
we don`t expect any fog to develop tonight or Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1252 AM EDT Thursday...Seasonal temperatures are in store for
the day on Friday with plenty of sunshine in the forecast as we see
the mid-level ridge begin to build back across the eastern US once
again. However, we will see a disconnect between the subtropical
ridge and this new ridge so we will continue to see lower dewpoints.
The only concern for Friday will be low dewpoints and subsequent low
afternoon RH values. Given the depth of the dry air and deep mixing
expected in the afternoon hours, we could see dewpoints drop into
the upper 40s Friday afternoon. This would yield RH values in the
upper 20s to lower 30s. Luckily, winds will be light and should help
limit fire danger.

As we head into Saturday, we will see a strong surge of warmer air
as the upper level ridge axis moves across the northeastern US. High
temperatures will be noticeably warmer with highs in the mid 80s to
lower 90s with the highest readings in the Champlain, Connecticut
River, and St. Lawrence Valleys. Dewpoints will likely remain in the
50s so we don`t expect excessive heat indices in the afternoon but
it`s always good to take breaks and drink plenty of water on sunny
and hot summer afternoons.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1252 AM EDT Thursday...A general cooling trend with perhaps a
more active weather pattern than we`ve had recently is expected for
much of next week. An upper level ridge will build over the north
central CONUS, which will place our region under progressive
northwesterly flow. A front drops across our area on Sunday bringing
the best chance for some widespread showers with thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon. This front will usher in a cooler air
mass. Temperatures will range from the 50s to 70s next week. There
will be other chances for showers as well, but tough to pinpoint
timing this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...A few showers linger across the region but
should come to an end by 03Z. MPV/SLK and to a lesser degree,
EFK and RUT will see some fog 08-12Z since rainfall occur at
terminals with IFR and some MVFR. Lingering cloud cover could
impede fog formation, if clouds out clear at the above
terminals, LIFR is not out of the question. Southerly flow this
evening becomes light overnight before turning northerly after
12Z.


Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Boyd/Verasamy