474
FXUS61 KBTV 211758
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1258 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upslope snow showers will continue today and tonight. Many days
in the coming week have some precipitation chances but no
significant weather systems are expected. A warming trend is
also expected with temperatures trending towards near normal
with some above freezing temperatures likely.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1258 PM EST Friday...Coverage of snow showers and
flurries continues to wane, although they still are expected to
see a bit of a subtle resurgence this evening as some enhanced
moisture is dropping southeastward from southwestern Quebec.
Skies have become increasingly sunny across the southern half of
Vermont and adjacent northeastern New York where 850 millibar
flow is a bit stronger and drying things out with gusty winds.
No big changes needed, but did lower PoPs in the near term a bit
with lack of steady precipitation.

Previous Discussion...

Light snow has been falling over much of the north country
overnight. This snow has very low liquid content, super fluffy.
Slightly better lift and moisture has rotated into our northern
mountains. The snow is not very evident on radar, but with
saturation in the DGZ and shortwave energy rotating overhead
expect light snow to continue through at least the morning
hours. With persistent northwesterly winds and height rises,
some blue skies possible with brisk conditions areawide. High
temperatures will mainly be in the low to mid teens, with the
wide valleys milder with late afternoon temperatures peaking in
the low to mid 20s. There will still be a persistent gradient
flow in place into the overnight, which should prevent
temperatures from bottoming out. We may also have stubborn
mountain snow showers persisting. Additional snow showers are
possible Saturday late in the day as another shortwave
approaches our area from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 AM EST Friday...A weak clipper passes through Saturday
night into Sunday, and it will bring a few snow showers. These will
mostly be confined to the typical upslope areas, though a few will
be possible in the northern valleys. Moisture will be shallow again
so they should be light and not amount to much, but the moisture
looks to last into Sunday night, so a few snow showers should be
occurring in the favored areas for over 24 hours. The DGZ looks to
be around the top of the moisture, so the accumulations should be
much less efficient than what is currently ongoing. An inch or two
of snow is possible in the most favored terrain but most areas
should see well under an inch. Temperatures look to rise to around
of slightly above freezing in the broad valleys on Sunday, but not
warm enough to change over to rain. The higher terrain will stay
below freezing. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday night will be in
the teens and low 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 339 AM EST Friday...Another clipper moves through Monday into
Tuesday, bringing more light precipitation. Before it arrives,
temperatures will warm above freezing in most places on Monday.
Light warm-air advection snow looks to develop sometime during the
day, though there is model disagreement on timing. Dew points will
still be in the teens and 20s at the onset, so wet bulbing should be
enough to keep the precipitation all snow. Strong southwest flow
aloft will likely downslope the broad valleys, so the Burlington
area may not see much of anything. The dynamics do not look strong
enough to significantly overcome the topographic effects. Warm air
advection and cloud cover will keep temperatures from cooling off
Monday night, and temperatures should remain around freezing in most
places. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day as the region enters the
warm sector, with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s. By this point
dew points will be around or slightly above freezing, so any
lingering showers would likely be rain in the valleys. A weak
northern stream low develops Tuesday night and tracks over the
region, but without cold air in place, it looks to be elevation
dependent rain/snow again. Weak cold air advection looks to begin
late Tuesday night, but some of the broad valleys may remain above
freezing. A stronger surface low will develop off the coast, but
even though it will miss, it will help enhance the northwest flow
and cold advection. Temperatures will therefore finally go below
freezing region-wide Wednesday night. Another low will try to make a
run at the region for Thursday and into Friday, but there are still
a wide variety of solutions with this, regarding both storm track
and strength. The only likelihood is that behind this, a much colder
airmass will arrive.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Mix of MVFR and VFR conditions expected
to continue, with trend towards VFR. Limited to no snow shower
activity is anticipated during the period, but operationally any
light snow is probably minimally impactful with very low water
content. Flight conditions should be driven by ceilings, which
will persist in the 2000 to 3500 foot range, with the higher
ceilings currently in the Champlain Valley. Ceilings may lower
tonight before scattering. As typical with increasing subsident
flow, predictability of this timing and the degree of lowering is
challenging.

Northwest to westerly winds gusting to around 20 knots at MPV
and EFK, and lower elsewhere, will taper off towards 00Z with a
few gusts possibly lingering at MPV. Winds overnight will be
more terrain driven with a flip to southerly at BTV but remain
light. West winds, or southwesterly at MSS, elsewhere are
expected largely in the 5 to 10 knot range from 12Z onward.


Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Mount Ascutney NOAA Weather Radio transmitter, serving
portions of eastern Vermont, is currently out of service. The
earliest date of restoration is now Tuesday, February 25th
following a delay. We apologize for any inconvenience.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Kutikoff/Neiles
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV