192
FXUS61 KBTV 070227
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1027 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are lifting across the area
associated with a surface warm front. Areas of showers will
continue through early Saturday, with a decreasing chance of
rain in the afternoon. Generally seasonable weather is expected
next week, and an unsettled pattern should lead to more chances
for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1021 PM EDT Friday...While the main area of showers have
moved east, light surface flow and lingering moisture has led to
light to moderate mist and drizzle across most of the area.
Visibilities in the valleys have trended towards 1-2 miles.
Whether the air fully condenses into fog remains to be seen, but
visibility reductions from mist and at times patchy fog is
possible through most of the overnight outside of the St.
Lawrence Valley. Moisture should begin to dry out from west to
east around sunrise across northern New York and northern
Vermont with showers redeveloping across southern Vermont with
an approaching weak coastal low for tomorrow.

Previous Discussion...The wet weather, with reduced chances for
heavy rainfall, will linger overnight into Saturday morning
before the low pressure system moves to our east and drags a
weak cold front through the area. A secondary cold front will
follow Saturday afternoon. It will have limited moisture to work
with as drier air will have worked in behind the initial front.
As such, risk of additional thunderstorms, and coverage of
showers, will be low. Greatest chances of these isolated showers
and a possible thunderstorm will be in north central and
eastern Vermont. Most locations will be dry Saturday afternoon,
and temperatures should warm nicely as blue skies become common
from west to east with falling humidity levels. Ridge of surface
high pressure will build into our region from the north on
Saturday night and drier weather returns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 351 PM EDT Friday...The second half of the weekend should
be mostly dry as ridging briefly builds over the region. We
should start off with ample sunshine, but some fair weather
cumulus could bubble up in the afternoon, especially over the
higher terrain. Highs will be seasonable, in the 70s pretty much
areawide. Rain chances increase overnight Sunday night as high
pressure shifts exits to the east, making way for another
frontal system. Increasing moisture and clouds will keep lows in
the 50s in most spots, with perhaps some upper 40s in the
Northeast Kingdom.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 351 PM EDT Friday...An upper level trough will slowly
move into the region from the west during the week and it will
push a few fronts through as it progresses eastward. These
fronts will be accompanied by showers and the chance of a few
thunderstorms. However, none of the fronts look like they will
provide significant severe weather at this point, though we will
continue to watch them. The initial front on Tuesday will
provide the best chance for heavy rain. PWATs look to be in the
1.0-1.5 range and there will be relatively high warm cloud
depths. The one thing to watch is the speed of the frontal
passage. Some guidance delays it as they try to form a secondary
low to the south and train some of the rain over the same areas
for much of the day Tuesday, but most sends it through
relatively quickly. Even if the slower solutions verify, it does
not look like there would be a significant flood threat, but
the region is in a marginal ERO for this case. The subsequent
fronts will have much less moisture to work with and look to be
more progressive. Overall, it will be a relatively seasonable
stretch with regards to temperatures and there will be lots of
shower chances, though likely no full day washouts.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...A mix of VFR/MVFR conditions through 12Z
with dry wx expected. Patchy MVFR mainly due to visibility
restrictions from mist, and in the case of KMSS, HZ from
Canadian wildfire smoke. Winds light and variable overnight at
less than 5 kts. An outside chance of IFR cigs/vsbys overnight
at KRUT/KMPV but confidence modest to low at best. After 12Z
Saturday, winds gradually shift to light northwesterly over time
as a weak cold front sinks south through the area. Conds.
mainly VFR and continued dry from this point forward, the only
exception being possibly at KRUT with some passing showers and
ocnl MVFR through 16Z.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Danzig/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff/Neiles
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...JMG