910
FXUS61 KBTV 201144
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
744 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Much colder and drier air has arrived with breezy, northwest
winds, and skies will become mainly clear by afternoon.
Seasonably cold and dry conditions will continue through midday
Monday, then another round of showers will move through Monday
night. Pleasant weather midweek will be followed by yet another
system possibly providing periods of showers late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 745 AM EDT Sunday...Other than adjusting cloud cover to
make it generally cloudier through the next few hours, forecast
is in good shape with no changes made.

Previous Discussion...
A notable air mass change has occurred tonight as a polar air
mass has replaced the Pacific one that we had yesterday. The
blustery northwest winds that have ushered in this change will
persist through the day, with a pressure gradient stronger as
one goes eastward such that magnitude of winds will be quite a
bit lighter west of the Green Mountains. Along and east of the
mountain spine peak gusts will continue in the 30 to 35 MPH
range for much of the day. Seasonably cold air aloft, with 850
millibar temperatures settling into the 4 to 6 degree below zero
Celsius range, will limit high temperatures to only the upper
40s to mid 50s in the valleys with typical elevational
dependence. For any late season skiers, lingering snow should
firm up nicely. As clouds diminish, the late April sun should
offset the chill somewhat.

As an expansive ridge of high pressure moves overhead tonight,
featuring very dry air aloft, temperatures should plummet
nicely. Have blended in some of the colder model output
statistics, as the national blended guidance is likely not cold
enough based on previous experience and the observations in
Michigan early this morning under this ridge. Low temperatures
should be sub-freezing areawide, with low to mid 20s common in
many locations. Some passing high clouds are expected, but
should not prevent good radiational cooling.

For Monday, the day will begin with a plethora of dry air to mix
out such that with some low level warm air advection we will
have yet another day with extremely low relative humidity
values, especially in Vermont as New York will probably see some
increased moisture already by midday ahead of the next frontal
system. The origins of the next weather maker is a strong upper
level low currently moving into West Texas. As it lifts
northeastward and matures while reaching the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan by Monday evening, its occluded front will also swing
to the northeast directly into northern New York and Vermont.
Numerous showers will start to make their way into the region,
probably in the mid to late afternoon hours, with best chances
of measurable rain remaining in our western areas through this
timeframe. Seasonable temperatures reaching into the upper 50s
to mid 60s are expected ahead of this system, and clouds will
rapidly increase from west to east during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Sunday...Scattered to numerous showers will spread
across the region from west to east Monday night as low pressure
lifts up west of the St Lawrence Valley, pushing an occluded front
northeastward as it does so. The front moves through our region by
Tuesday afternoon, followed by drier and somewhat cooler air. The
more widespread showers will come to an end once the from moves by,
but additional light precipitation will be possible in the northern
mountains as the low moves by to our north and flow turns more
toward the west. Otherwise, expect ample cloud cover for Tuesday,
though southern areas may see a bit more sunshine by afternoon.
Winds will be a little on the brisk side, but highs will be near to
above seasonal normals, generally in the low 50s to low 60s. Tuesday
night will be dry with temperatures dropping into the mid 30s to low
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 328 AM EDT Sunday...Ridging builds into the area
Wednesday into Thursday, leading to dry weather with seasonably
mild conditions, especially on Thursday. Precipitation chances
increase late in the week as yet another upper shortwave trough
swings into the Great Lakes while surface low pressure moves up
to our west. As one may expect, longer range guidance differs on
the details with the incoming systems, including strength/placement
of the upper trough and where the surface low eventually tracks,
along with timing of any frontal passages. Have therefore stayed
close to the NBM for the end of the week, with widespread chance
PoPs and temperatures near to above normal for late April.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...MVFR ceilings are lingering at SLK and EFK
this morning. Shallow stratocumulus present across the airspace
is beginning to erode at MSS, and will do so next at PBG, then
BTV, in the 13Z to 15Z period. Soon after, likely between 15
and 16Z, clouds should also scatter at SLK, EFK, RUT, and MPV.
VFR conditions will then persist through the remainder of the
period.

Wind speeds vary significantly across the airspace, with
generally stronger northwesterly winds towards the east and
lighter winds west. At sites like MPV and EFK, gusts will be in
the 25 to 35 knot range and gradually tapering through the day.
At RUT, BTV, and PBG, expect gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds
should become light and terrain driven towards 00Z, or towards
06Z at EFK and MPV.


Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Kutikoff