466
FXUS61 KBTV 192337
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
737 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather will remain the theme. On Friday, a
backdoor front will shift southwest across our area. It could
produce a handful of light showers, mainly over Vermont. Weather
conditions will become dry once again heading into next week,
but with more seasonable temperatures of 60s to lower 70s during
the day and lower 40s to lower 50s at night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 655 PM EDT Thursday...Main focus of this update was to
increase PoPs slightly tomorrow to account for the slight
potential of precipitation with the backdoor cold front expected
to move through the forecast area. Otherwise, forecast is on
track. Some wind just above the surface may make valley fog
tricky tonight, but continue to include the potential in the
forecast. Previous discussion below:

Previous discussion...Weather will be pretty quiet
overnight with dissipating clouds, light winds and some fog
formation in the typically fog prone spots. Models continue to
depict a back door cold front backing into our area from the
east on Friday, and some spot showers are possible with this
feature. Have mainly only mentioned a slight chance for showers
at this time, as the current environment is very dry. Any
showers that develop will die down around sunset. Cooler
northeast flow will keep daytime high temperatures around the
mid 70s to near 80. Friday night will be another quiet one with
valley fog possible once again as lows dip into the 50s areawide
with some upper 40s in the colder spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 248 PM EDT Thursday...The influence of an off-shore low
will bring the potential for some isolated to scattered showers
during the day Saturday, primarily across southern Vermont and
along the spine of the Green Mountains. Elsewhere, dry
conditions are expected to prevail. Temperatures look to trend
back towards seasonable normals, with high temperatures
generally in the 70s. Overnight lows will be cooler in
comparison to previous nights, generally in the upper 40s into
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 248 PM EDT Thursday...Dry weather will persist for the
second half of the weekend into the beginning of next week as
the region remains under the influence of upper level ridging
and surface high pressure. Temperatures will be neat seasonal
normals, and feel quite fall-like after this recent warmth, with
high temperatures generally in the 60s to lower 70s. Overnight
lows will be cooler as well, mainly in the 40s and low 50s.

Heading into the middle of next week, chances of measurable
precipitation return to the region as a upper level trough digs
into the Great Lakes region, although there is still some
uncertainty as to how quickly the upper level ridge will break
down. Given the uncertainty of these features, continued the
idea of slight chance to chances of showers from the previous
forecast. High temperatures by mid-week will continue to be
rather seasonable, mainly in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday... VFR conditions will prevail this evening
before patchy fog develops later in the night. The fog does not look
to be as widespread as the previous nights and it will likely not
last as long either. Fog still should develop at SLK, MPV and EFK
and it could briefly occur at MSS or BTV around sunrise. The fog
will lift by mid-morning and VFR conditions will prevail for the
rest of the day. Winds will go relatively calm tonight before
becoming a little stronger during the day tomorrow. They will also
mostly switch to northeasterly. LLWS is not a concern.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Storm
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Myskowski