783
FXUS61 KBTV 030720
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY
320 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the North Country through much
of next week, resulting in little or no rainfall. Hazy skies
will be with us through as least the weekend associated with
wildfire smoke. Temperatures will generally be around normal to
just above normal through most of the week, with good cooling
overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 218 AM EDT Saturday...The region will remain under clear
skies today with high pressure firmly in place. With the region
a few days detached from our last rain event, coupled with dry
conditions and slight flow just off the deck, fog development
will be difficult tonight. Likely will only see patchy dense fog
in the vicinity of the Connecticut River Valley overnight.
Canadian wildfire smoke from south-central Canada will continue
to overspread the region through the day today as upper-level
flow will remain from the northwest. Haze will continue through
at least midnight tonight with Air Quality Alerts for the entire
region until might tonight. For those sensitive to smoke and
poor air quality, you can monitor the guidance from the Vermont
Agency of Natural Resources and the New York Department of
Environmental Conservation. Surface flow will shift to the
southwest today allowing for warming surface temperatures across
the region. Highs will only be a few degrees warmer today than
yesterday with values in the low to mid 80s. A weak low-level
jet will situate itself on the edge of the surface high near
mountain summit level today. Winds may be breezy on the
mountains between 15-20 mph with additional breezy conditions on
Lake Champlain from southerly channeled flow. Relative humidity
values will dip towards near critical values between 25-35% in
the larger valleys further drying out the surface. Continued low
relative humidity values will need to be closely monitored for
potential fire weather concerns through the near and into the
short term forecast.

Overnight lows will dip towards the 50s to low 60s in the
valleys with subtle waa from southerly flow. Additional moisture
and added smoke may lead to better patchy dense fog tonight than
last night in the climatologically favored cold hollows and
river valleys.

A weak cold front will sag south into the region Monday causing
winds to shift to the norther by the afternoon. Strong upper-
level ridging and low-level drying will likely lead to minimal
shower coverage with largely a mostly sunny day for most. Any
showers that may form will be terrain drive and brief, though
confidence is low in shower development with PoPs below 10% at
this time. With the cold front wind shift, Canadian wildfire
smoke may once again filter into the region. Winds will be
modestly breezy with a strong pressure gradient from our
abnormally strong surface high and weak cold front setup.
Channeled flow along Lake Champlain may lead to occasional gusts
15-20 mph. Highs on Monday will be similar to today with values
in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 218 AM EDT Sunday...Behind a weak cold front, winds will
turn northerly through Monday night into Tuesday with
temperatures only a degree or two lower than the day prior.
Upper-level northerly flow will help another potential plume of
Canadian wildfire smoke filter into the region. Lightening winds
Monday night, with clearing skies and the presence of smoke,
will lead to enhanced fog conditions across the usual locations.
Scattered terrain driven clouds will develop Tuesday with some
models developing terrain-driven showers in the Adirondacks and
southern Greens under the high. With low-level drying persisting
under the high, overarching precipitation chances remain low;
under 10%. With the northerly flow, temperatures Tuesday will be
a degree or two lower than Monday with values in the upper 70s
to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 132 AM EDT Sunday...High pressure lingers with through the
week with a weak trough nosing into the ridge by Thursday.
Blended model guidance is trying to show some chances of
isolated showers and some possible isolated storms, but the
strength of the ridge will likely win out. Previous guidance
showed ridge breaking down Friday-Saturday, but as is typical
with strong ridges, the trends keep backing off on a potential
breakdown, now past Saturday into early the following week.
Highs will be running warmer than seasonal averages, but
dewpoints will be marginally low keeping conditions feeling more
pleasant. Highs are generally expected to be in the upper 70s to
mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Aside from some fog chances at
SLK/MPV/EFK, VFR conditions will prevail for most terminals
through the period. However, haze resulting from wildfire smoke
could drop VIS to 5-6SM this afternoon. Winds will be light out
of the southwest generally 5 to 10kts.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd