098
FXUS61 KBTV 310813
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
313 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Snow, potentially mixed with rain across far southern Vermont,
will overspread the region this afternoon. High pressure will
quickly settle into the region on Saturday with a period of
quiet weather extending into Sunday morning. Another system will
bring a mix of rain, snow, and gusty winds to the region on
Monday before high pressure once again settles into the region
on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 302 AM EST Friday...A northern stream shortwave continues to
produce some light snow near the International Border this morning.
Based on the latest satellite and radar trends, this snow should
shift to the north and east by 5 AM with a lull in precipitation
expected through the remainder of the morning hours. In the mean
time, a 40 to 45 knot low level jet is currently moving overhead and
has helped wind gusts over-produce thus far. Wind gusts up to 35 mph
will be possible at times through daybreak before the low level jet,
just like the northern stream shortwave, exits to the north and
east. By early this afternoon, a warm front will lift through the
North Country bringing the return for snow, and possibly some rain,
to the region this afternoon and evening. Model soundings continue
to point to surface temperatures warming into the low to mid 30s
this afternoon in response to the warm air advection behind the warm
front. While temperatures are expected to warm above freezing for
many locations this afternoon, temperatures aloft will support
snowfall although a few locations in the Champlain Valley may mix or
change over to rain at times this afternoon. Snowfall totals will
likely range from 1-3 inches from Rutland and Windsor county
southward with an inch or less of snowfall expected elsewhere. The
snow today will likely be on the wet side given a deep isothermal
layer just below freezing. Snow ratios in the 6:1 to 10:1 range
(lowest south) are expected. A cold front will quickly push through
the region this evening allowing for temperatures to rapidly cool
off back to seasonal normals tonight. The cold front will also help
change any rain that falls during the day back to snow as
temperatures in the boundary layer sharply cool off.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 302 AM EST Friday...A 1036 mb surface high pressure system will
settle into the region on Saturday with the high expected to be
centered across the North Country Saturday night. A period of quiet
weather is expected on Saturday as gradient flow weakens and
moisture scours out in response to increased subsidence from the
high pressure system. Given the position of the high pressure
Saturday night, we should have a textbook radiational cooling night
with temperatures likely to plummet to some of the coldest
temperatures of the season. MOS guidance continues to come in
slightly colder compared to previous runs and has increased
confidence that below zero temperatures are expected across our
entire forecast area Saturday night. It wouldn`t be surprising to
see Saranac Lake touch 20 below zero as MOS guidance typically is
not cold enough on these radiational cooling nights. The first half
of Sunday of Sunday looks rather uneventful as the high pressure
system shifts eastward. Another warm front is slated to begin moving
through the area Sunday evening and sunday night with light snowfall
overspread the region from southwest to northeast. Several inches of
snowfall will be possible but will likely be below advisory criteria
given the lack of moisture (PWATs around 0.25").

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 302 AM EST Friday...A messy weather system will bring a
mix of rain, snow, and gusty winds to the North Country on
Monday. A warm front lifting north will allow for significant
warm air advection with temperatures near or above freezing
expected at all locations. As typical, the warmest air will
overspread the St. Lawrence, Connecticut, and Champlain Valleys
where temperatures could warm into the upper 30s. Snow will
likely transition to rain in these wider valleys while
locations above 1500 ft may stay just cool enough to avoid the
transition over to rain. Models are showing a dry slot
developing across the region Monday afternoon in response to a
45 to 55 knot southwesterly oriented low level jet. Model
soundings are showing near dry adiabatic lapse rates developing
in the lee of the higher terrain as a result which will help mix
down stronger winds as the low level jet moves overhead. The
net result will be wind gust in the 25 to 40 mph range with the
strongest winds likely in the lee of the Adirondacks and Greens.
Precipitation will quickly come to an end Monday night/Tuesday
morning as another strong but transient high pressure system
builds into the region.

Following around 36 hours of quiet weather dominated by surface
high pressure, global models and their ensemble members are
showing an increasing likelihood of a significant warm up
coupled with a nice slug of moisture. All ECMWF members and
over 50% of the GEFS members show high temperatures on Thursday
warming into the 40s or even 50s which has allowed us to warm
temperatures late week given increased confidence. Ensemble
models also show PWAT values surging towards the 99th percentile
which could allow for a period of moderate to heavy rain to
occur as we see a 1-2 punch from a warm front and cold front.
Those near rivers should pay attention to the forecast in the
coming days as it`s looks like it could see some ice movement
and the possibility for localized flooding. This late week storm
system will change over the next few days as we get more and
more upper air data for the models to ingest so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Main aviation concern will be LLWS
through 12Z progressing southwest to northeast over that time
period as a warm front lifts through the region superimposing
sw-w winds around 30-45kt over southerly sfc flow. MSS will be
the odd one out with a period of NE sfc winds with nearly 180
degrees of shear between the sfc an stronger wind layer.
Otherwise, isolated snow will accompany the front through 12Z
with most locations remaining VFR. SLK stands the highest
chances of seeing MVFR CIGs prior to 12Z with more widespread
MVFR after 12Z. The next system will begin to move into the
region after 18Z with CIGs/VIS lowering 21Z through the end of
the forecast period as snow chances spread northward with low
pressure passing south of the North Country. IFR conditions will
become more widespread from central Vermont/SLK to areas south
with lower potential for BTV/PBG/EFK with a gradient in snow
potential and heaviest amounts favored for southern Vermont.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Likely SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Boyd