854
FXUS61 KBTV 242351
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
751 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will become more widespread this evening
along a slow moving front, with localized strong thunderstorms
possible, especially in the Adirondacks. Lingering shower and
thunderstorm chances will be mainly in northeastern Vermont on
Monday as cooler and drier air returns. Another cold front will
swing through on Thursday with chances of showers but mainly
reinforce a dry weather pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 721 PM EDT Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms are winding
down and will continue to weaken. Have adjusted forecast to
reflect current radar trends and bumped the winds up slightly as
winds are still pretty brisk. Previous discussion follows.

Isolated showers, some of which will briefly be capable of
lightning, will trend organized through the early evening before
weakening. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a marginal (1
out of 5) risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm within the
Adirondack region from late this afternoon through early
evening, with a chance of localized damaging wind and/or hail
approaching 1" diameter. Convection Allowing Model (CAM)
guidance has been a little underdone on convection across
western/central New York early this afternoon, giving credence
to the idea of possibly the more robust line of thunderstorms
occurring with cells growing upscale/linear with time. Most of
this activity may stay just south of the region, but that would
be the best chance of both heavier rainfall and severe weather.
Otherwise, broadly increasing diurnally-driven instability from
the Adirondacks eastward into Vermont should support scattered
showers and a chance of thunder late this afternoon into the
evening before diminishing. Again, a lot of the higher PoPs are
driven by the expected line of thunderstorms materializing in
northern New York, so there is still some uncertainty. Generally
the front that is approaching from the west is expected to be
quasi- stationary/very slow moving such that forward progress of
this line of showers may be limited. The precipitation
forecast, relatedly, may trend a little lighter in
central/eastern Vermont relative to the deterministic (specific
amount) forecast as the picture of the convection becomes more
clear.

Locally gusty winds in the eastern Champlain Valley, which have
been as high as the 30 to 35 MPH range, today will persist
through around midnight, then sharply diminish as low level flow
turns more westerly and weakens as the surface front moves into
the vicinity. Less impactful weather is expected for tomorrow
as there has become good consensus on limited instability in our
region with the cold front sliding through Vermont during the
morning hours. Hence, HREF- calibrated probabilities of thunder
are mainly low, peaking at 40% in far northeastern Vermont, and
limited to eastern portions of the state and largely noon to 2
PM. The main weather story will probably be a return to drier
air as westerly flow picks up, so dew points will fall back into
the "comfortable" category after a moderately humid period.
Temperatures should be seasonably warm ranging from the mid 70s
to low 80s in the valleys and upper 60s to low 70s in mid-
slopes/higher elevation towns. The drier air mass, along with
diminishing winds, will lead to a cooler, seasonable night as
temperatures tomorrow night dip into the low 40s to low 50s for
most spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 159 PM EDT Sunday...The forecast for Tuesday has
unfortunately trended drier as low level air will be dry with
all of the upper level forcing either well north of the area or
passing to our southwest. Have kept with the National Blend of
Models for PoPs at this point, as diurnally driven pop up
showers can`t be ruled out, but any appreciable rainfall looks
unlikely. Main focus for this period will be related to the
dryness, as large scale pattern is favorable for deep mixing and
sharply lowering dew points during the day. Relative humidity
will probably drop into the 30-40% range, generally lowest in
the western Champlain Valley given modest downsloping. Top of
the mixed layer winds will tend to be strongest early in the day
and stronger farther east in eastern New England, so magnitude
of wind gusts don`t look overly strong - expect mainly peaking
near 25 MPH. High temperatures should be below normal with the
cooler air mass settling in, ranging from the mid 60s to mid
70s. Similarly, lows Tuesday night will be chillier than the
previous night, although not cold enough to have frost concerns
even in notorious cold spot Lake Clear/Adirondack Regional
Airport.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 159 PM EDT Sunday...Upper level troughing and broad
cyclonic flow will continue to produce increased cloud cover,
northwesterly flow, and cooler conditions across the forecast
area for the latter half of the week. Highs are likely to not
reach above the upper 60s and 70s and lows could fall as low as
the upper 30s and 40s. Most likely time for precipitation will
be Thursday through Friday as a cold front looks to move through
the region with chances 20-40% during this period. This cold
front may also make Thursday somewhat breezy out of the
west/southwest. Following the cold front, ridging and high
pressure are anticipated with temperatures remaining slightly
below seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Showers have winded down for the most
part with just one small area of storms remaining over St
Lawrence County in New York. Some shower redevelopment is
expected on Monday as the front continues to push eastward, but
have not mentioned any prevailing showers at this time. Winds
have remained gusty, but will settle down overnight. After 06Z,
ceilings will gradually lower as surface moisture increases,
mostly to MVFR levels, though some models are suggesting that
IFR vis and cig could develop at SLK and MPV around 08Z-14Z as
winds decrease. Confidence is low for this solution at the
moment, but it is something we`ll continue to monitor into the
evening. Have included some hint at these conditions though.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Neiles