716
FXUS61 KBTV 210655
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
255 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 253 AM EDT Monday...

No significant changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 253 AM EDT Monday...

1. Tranquil weather conditions expected through mid week, with
patchy frost possible tonight and Tuesday night.

2. While high pressure and cool weather may continue into the
weekend, a low pressure system will approach southern New England
and potentially bring us periods of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 253 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will continue to cross the region early
this morning. In the meantime, patchy dense fog, drizzle, and dreary
skies will linger through sunrise. Conditions will then slowly
improve through the day as drier air flows in behind the frontal
boundary. While not as chilly and damp as yesterday, north winds
will be a touch brisk with highs only getting into the mid 50s to
low 60s.

The remainder of the first half of the week will feature fair
weather as high pressure settles to our north, keeping developing
low pressure and its associated precipitation shunted well to our
south. The result will be partly to mostly sunny skies and
seasonably cool temperatures each day. There will be a slight
warming trend through Thursday, with highs mainly in the 60s. Lows
will be in the upper 30s to low 40s each night, except in the
sheltered valleys of the Adirondacks, Northeast Kingdom, and eastern
VT, where temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s. This will
allow for patchy frost; subsequent shifts will need to monitor the
potential for Frost Advisories. It should be noted that, as of
today, these products will no longer be issued for the
Adirondacks/Northeast Kingdom since today is the median date of the
first autumn freeze. Thus, the growing season is considered ended in
these areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2: No significant impacts are expected, but a beneficial
rainfall is on the table for the upcoming weekend. The Friday
through Sunday period remains highly uncertain for sensible weather.
There is potential for dry weather to continue, but also a chance
for widespread rain to occur, associated with an expected deep low
pressure system that tracks northward over the western Atlantic
Ocean. The 48 hour probability of precipitation from the blend of
models suggests some rain is likely across south central Vermont and
the Upper Valley, which has trended upward compared to 12 hours ago
but similar to 24 hours ago. Otherwise, a coin flip chance across
the rest of northern Vermont and northeastern New York as far north
as near Plattsburgh continues, and a low (under 25%) chance of any
rain is indicated to the northwest towards the International Border
and St. Lawrence Valley.

There have been many runs of deterministic guidance from both the
GFS and ECMWF showing deformation bands of rain translating
northward across much of Vermont, pinwheeling westward and then
contracting back towards the south as surface low pressure stalls
out/retrogrades and weakens in the Saturday-Saturday night
timeframe. This idea is reflected in the six hour PoP trend, with
most widespread low chances of rain centered in the Saturday morning
period. Moderate rainfall amounts are possible given this type of
system, especially in our southern and eastern areas. The 90th
percentile (reasonable high end) shows near 1" totals possible in
central Vermont increasing to near 2" in our far southern areas.
Again, this type of rain would not pose any hazards but would
obviously impact weekend outdoor activities.

Additionally, the higher terrain, especially in the central/southern
Greens, may see unseasonably strong winds with 40 to 45 MPH easterly
winds at the 850 millibar level indicated by the mean of the
ensemble guidance that shows the wetter/more northward low track
amongst the possible scenarios. So potentially hazardous
recreational conditions, when combined with rain and temperatures in
the 40s, will be present this weekend. Otherwise, aside from cooler
conditions associated with any rain, consistent temperatures near
seasonable values should continue into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...A wide range in flight conditions
continues early this morning. Northwest wind and VFR conditions
are present at MSS, while winds are calm elsewhere with MVFR at
BTV/PBG/RUT and LIFR at MPV/EFK/SLK. Winds will remain light
enough off the deck to effectively scatter out the low clouds,
and the north-northwesterly blocked flow supports going more
pessimistic on prevailing LIFR, especially mountain sites and
the eastern side of the Champlain Valley.

Conditions should slowly improve with ceilings rising to MVFR
by 15z and mostly VFR by 18z Monday at all sites. After 10-12Z,
winds should be about 5 to 10 knots through much of the
remainder of the period out of the north.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 253 AM EDT Monday...Near Lake Wind Advisory criteria will be in
place early this morning as cold air advection develops with a
cold frontal passage. North winds will generally remain 15 to 20
kt, but a few gusts to 25 kt are possible, especially across
the central and southern portion of the broad lake and down
towards Diamond Island. Wave heights in this region should reach
2-4 feet between 6 am and 10 am before subsiding this
afternoon.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Hastings
AVIATION...Kutikoff
MARINE...Hastings