870
FXUS61 KBTV 190553
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
153 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonably cool conditions will continue across the region
today, with light rainfall spreading into portions of the area
tonight and Wednesday. More dry conditions and warming temperatures
are expected late in the week before additional rainfall chances
arrive over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 152 AM EDT Tuesday...Another dry and seasonably cool day is
expected across the region today as high pressure continues to shift
eastward. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday, climbing into the 70s areawide. An upper level shortwave
will approach the region later today, bringing increased chances for
precipitation tonight and Wednesday. The latest guidance continues
to support the more southerly trend of precipitation, with southern
Vermont and portions of the Adirondacks closer to the axis of higher
precipitation, although there is still some variability as to how
this will play out. In addition to the rain chances, a period of
breezy winds will be possible during the pre-dawn hours, especially
across the broad waters of Lake Champlain. With increased cloud
cover and precipitation, temperatures on Wednesday will be on the
cooler side, with high temperatures only in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 152 AM EDT Tuesday...After the shortwave and associated
precipitation exit the region, another stretch of dry conditions and
seasonably warm temperatures will return Wednesday night and
Thursday as high pressure builds. Overnight temperatures will be on
the chilly side, dropping into the 40s and mid 50s, which is about 5
degrees cooler than climatological normals this time of year. High
temperatures Thursday will climb into the mid and upper 70s across
the region, with dewpoint temperatures generally in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 128 AM EDT Tuesday...Thursday night into Friday, the flow of
cool, northeasterly flow will shut off as an expansive ridge axis
builds across the region. Hurricane Erin will slide well off to the
east into the open Atlantic, but its influence will provide broad
subsidence across the area in combination with that building ridge.
Pleasant weather is expected with a steady north wind under mostly
clear skies. Temperatures will be rise into the upper 70s to mid
80s, which is just slight above seasonal norms for this point of the
year. Comfortable humidity will keep things feeling great, though.

An expansive deep layer ridge will develop across the Atlantic over
the weekend while a large upper low currently off the Alaskan Coast
will maintain its identity and reamplify on approach towards James
Bay late Saturday evening into Sunday. This will begin to funnel
deep subtropical heat and humidity northwards. A range of model
scenarios depicts timing discrepancies whether the front will cross
Sunday night into Monday or Monday night into Tuesday. Probabilistic
data has a similar picture, with differing start times to
precipitation. However, we should at least see a solid dose of
precipitation. Deep southwesterly flow running parallel the frontal
axis will ensure this one moves a bit more slowly, giving us several
opportunities for pop up showers and thunderstorms followed by
lingering activity in northwest flow. With upper level pressure
gradients between the Atlantic ridge and James Bay upper low, about
40 knots of shear will likely be present. We`ll have to keep an eye
whether we can develop enough instability in that window for a few
potential stronger storms. The picture right now is a little muddled
with the timing, though. So confidence is low for now. Taking into
account an extra 24 hour window for probabilities for a half inch of
rain, raw ensemble guidance suggests a 10-40% chance of over a half
inch and greater than 50% chance for at least a quarter. Nothing
ground breaking, but we`ll take it. Cool conditions will return as
the upper low continues translating eastwards.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...High clouds at or above 20000 ft agl are
spreading over the region with terrain driven or light flow tonight.
The combination of low crossover temperatures and likelihood of
thickening high clouds should preclude fog. Confidence is moderate
to high. GLAMP suggests fog is possible at KMPV, but it could be
adjusting too much since we are in the climatological peak time of
year for fog. Based on trends, adjusted the forecast to remove IFR
fog in favor of a short TEMPO with 4SM and a FEW001 between 10z
and 11z and will monitor closely. After 12z, south winds around
4 to 8 knots will develop, except northeasterly at KMSS.
Ceilings will gradually lower as precipitation moves in from the
west beyond 00z Wednesday, but will still likely be at or above
5000 ft agl. Forecast confidence on the placement of precipitation
is moderate, though. So only KSLK shows prevailing rain
beginning at 03z for now.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes