683
FXUS61 KBTV 221732
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
132 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Other than a stray shower along the international border today, dry
weather will prevail through mid week as high pressure settles over
the region. We`ll see a gradual warming trend through late week.
Intervals of wet weather are possible on Thursday as a narrow swath
of rain moves through, but the bulk of higher rainfall probabilities
will be on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 117 PM EDT Tuesday...Very quiet day panning out on the
weather front with just some gusty winds continuing. As per
latest surface analysis, cold front is moving eastward through
Vermont early this afternoon. Behind the front, winds remain
gusty over northern NY, where NY State mesonet reporting gusts
25 to 36+ mph over the Saint Lawrence Valley and northern slopes
of the Adirondacks. These gusty winds will continue into the
afternoon, then weaken going into the evening. Otherwise,
seeing increasing sun as expected over much of Vermont as
shortwave exits to our north.

Previous discussion...Isolated showers are exiting into NH
early this morning as the occluded front continues to push
eastward through the region. Meanwhile, the upper trough
currently lies just to our northwest, and it too will continue
to swing eastward today and tonight. A couple of weak shortwaves
will rotate around the bottom of the trough as it moves by to
our north. While a drier airmass is spreading into the region
behind the front, a thin layer of low level moisture will linger
over the next 24 hours. So while the threat of widespread
precipitation has passed, there may be just enough moisture to
allow a few light showers/sprinkles to develop with each of
these minor disturbances. If any showers do pop up, they`d be
limited to far northern areas along the international and mainly
just in the higher terrain. Otherwise, the only real impacts
from the upper trough will be continued partly to mostly cloudy
skies in the northern half of our forecast area. Southern areas
will start out with cloud cover this morning, but it will
dissipate by this afternoon. The tightening pressure gradient
between the ridge advancing in from the west and low pressure
departing to the east will allow for gusty winds today,
generally out of the west/southwest. We`ve already seen gusts to
around 30 mph or more in the Champlain Valley and portions of
the Adirondacks, but other areas should see increasing winds
after sunrise. The highest gusts will be across northern NY
during the daylight hours, with to around 35 mph expected.
Elsewhere, gusts should be 30 mph or less. Highs today will be
somewhat variable, ranging from the upper 40s/low 50s in the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks to the upper 50s to mid 60s from
the Champlain Valley eastward. Winds will abate tonight, and
this combined with the dry airmass will make for a chilly night.
Lows will mainly be in the mid 30s to around 40F, though some
of the colder locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom
could drop below freezing. With that in mind, any showers that
are able to develop tonight with the second upper shortwave
could actually come in the form of some light snow or flurries
in the colder spots.

Wednesday will be dry as ridging continues to build into the region.
Expect ample sunshine for most areas, though northern locations will
likely start out with more cloud cover due to the proximity to the
upper trough. Even there though, clouds will wane through the day as
the trough pulls away. Winds will be lighter than today, with highs
generally in the 50s north and upper 50s to mid 60s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 351 AM EDT Tuesday...High pressure will continue through
Wednesday night as a ridge slides across the area. Under clear
skies, overnight lows will dip towards freezing across northern New
York and in the mid to upper 30s in Vermont. By Thursday, clouds
will increase with continual warming into the afternoon with daytime
highs will in the 60s. Previous forecasts took highs Thursday closer
to 70 in the Champlain Valley, however, given increased cloud cover,
not as much warm air transport from weaker overall winds, and an
approaching shortwave, temperatures may only get into the upper 60s.

By Thursday afternoon/evening probabilistic guidance has hinted at a
weak shortwave moving across the area ahead of a more developed
system in the Midwest. The uncertainty lies in the moisture
availability for the wave. NAM guidance is the highest of the models
in terms of PWATs with near three-tenths in northern New York,
however, NBM probabilities of > 0.01 inch are only 20%.
Deterministic guidance goes in the other direction, with little to
no precipitation. Ensemble guidance from the GEFS and EPS show
closer to a tenth and seems to be the more reasonable given some
increased confidence in enough moisture for shower development with
the drier air it will be working into with dew point depressions
around 20F. All in all, precipitation chances have increased
slightly from previous forecast runs. If any precipitation does
materialize Thursday evening, there looks to be an EML present with
50-150 J/kg of CAPE and 50 knot shear available across the
Adirondacks and southern St. Lawrence Valley. An isolated to
scattered thunderstorm is possible in any shower activity that does
develop in those regions. Shower activity should taper off late
Thursday night before more moisture arrives for the weekend.
Overnight lows Thursday night only fall into the mid to upper 40s
under decent cloud cover and weak northwest caa.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 351 AM EDT Tuesday...While Friday morning should remain dry for
most, moisture and precipitation chances return for the beginning of
the weekend. An upper level trough will dig in across the Great
Lakes region with showers arriving Friday afternoon as a warm front
lifts to the north. Shower chances will increase and become more
widespread Friday night into Saturday morning as a cold front
traverses the region. A few isolated rumbles of thunder could be
possible across the Adirondacks and in southern Vermont as the front
moves through. While this system does not look to cause a full
washout of the weekend, it will be a wetting rain with probabilities
of greater than 0.25 inches near 60% and greater than 0.5 inches
between 30- 40%. As the frontal system exits Saturday, cooler drier
air will filter in to end the weekend. However, southerly flow
Monday will limit any significant temperature drops behind the front
with highs still in the low 60s. High pressure will build in for a
more pleasant start to next week

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Conditions will remain predominantly VFR
through the 24 hour TAF period for most TAF sites as high
pressure approaches from the west. Ahead of the high pressure,
winds will remain gusty from the west/northwest this afternoon,
then generally weaken overnight and settle between 5 and 10
knots during the day Wednesday. The only exception to the VFR
ceilings will be KSLK and KEFK, which will see a period of MVFR
stratus clouds tonight that will lift to VFR Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Duell/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Duell