085
FXUS61 KBTV 221146
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
746 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface and upper level ridges will remain over the region
through Thursday, providing the north country with dry weather
and warming temperatures. Increasing chances for showers late in
the week with potential frontal passages. Temperatures will
remain warmer than seasonal normals from Thursday through
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 306 AM EDT Tuesday...As high pressure situated to our
north drifts southeastward and across our region today and
tomorrow. Air mass in place over our region will gradually
moderate with temperatures reaching a few degrees warmer each
day. Southerly return flow will also develop on Wednesday as
high pressure slides east of our region. Dewpoints will also be
on the increase with the southerly flow and humidity begins to
increase on Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 306 AM EDT Tuesday...Thursday will be the hottest day of
the week, with increasing humidity as well. We could get close
to heat advisory conditions on Thursday afternoon for parts of
the region. Maximum temperatures will range from the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Have continued to mention potential heat advisory
conditions in our hazardous weather outlook.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 306 AM EDT Tuesday...Thursday night a well-defined cold
front will be to our northwest as very warm air (850 millibar
temperatures near 20 Celsius) continues to build over the
region. Seasonably humid conditions will be present on the warm
side of the boundary, but closer to it, moisture will pool and
greater precipitable water, near 1.8" per NAEFS mean values, or
between the 90th and 97.5th percentile, can be expected. As
such, there will be potential torrential rain in deeper,
elevated convection that will sag southward overnight. NBM PoPs
over the 12 hour period ending 8 AM look reasonable, ranging
from near 0% in south central Vermont, to 20-30% from the
Adirondack high peaks northeastward through north- central
Vermont, and 40-50% close to the International Border in
northwestern Vermont into the St. Lawrence Valley.

Friday will probably be the most interesting weather day of the
long term forecast. The cold front likely will remain to our
north (save perhaps northernmost portions of New York and
Vermont) through midday, per three of the four ensemble clusters
of the most recent global model guidance available. As such, a
severe thunderstorm threat will need to be monitored. Machine
learning approaches to convective hazard prediction from NCAR
and CSU are consistent with this idea, with greatest
probabilities in the 15-30% range of severe thunderstorms in
southern/eastern portions of our region. That being said, a
period of widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms, not
unlike what occurred this past Sunday, looks reasonable areawide
as the front moves through the region. Meanwhile, heat and
humidity will increase before the thunderstorms develop in our
southern areas. With dew points reaching into the low 70s,
temperatures only need to reach near 90 to see heat index values
exceeding 95. These probabilities are a bit higher than on
Thursday in central/southern Vermont, roughly 30-60% depending
on elevation/land cover in the valleys.

As previously discussed, the heat will only slightly back off
behind this front. Saturday will be noticeably less humid and a
bit less hot, more typical of mid-summer. Some weak ridging will
be overhead with a shortwave trough potentially riding through
the region later in the weekend, so thunderstorm chances return
on Sunday. However, predictability right now is low on any
details, especially with about half of GEFS members showing
limited instability or precipitation for that timeframe.
Otherwise, more agreement exists on northwesterly flow aloft
developing to start next week, leading to a trend towards
cooler/drier air, probably just beyond this seven day forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Dense fog that formed early this
morning at MPV will likely dissipate within the next hour.
Otherwise, SKC for much of the period is expected with high
pressure further building in over the region. Light northerly or
terrain- driven winds are expected through the TAF period. With
this pattern, lack of clouds and calm winds will support ideal
conditions for dense fog at MPV through 06-12Z, while a shorter
duration of fog occurs at SLK and possibly EFK.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff