259
FXUS61 KBTV 221129
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
729 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 259 AM EDT Saturday...

No significant changes to the current forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 259 AM EDT Saturday...

1. A pair of systems will increase precipitation chances across
northern New York and southeastern Vermont into the latter
portion of the weekend.

2. Trending drier mid next week before showers arrive toward
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 259 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Today will mainly be dry and seasonable with
chances for precipitation increasing later Sunday. A pair of
systems will split our area bringing shower chances to portions
of the area. The first of the two systems will be a weak coastal
low along the coast of southern New England, which will track
near Cape Cod and is expected to continue moving northeast out
into the Gulf of Maine. Some showers may be possible in eastern
Windsor and Orange Counties tonight, however, recent trends have
suggested steadier precipitation associated with the coastal
system will stay east of the Connecticut River. Any showers that
do develop in southeastern Vermont will be light in nature. The
second stronger system will be an approaching long wave trough
that will track east from the Great Lakes region. The trough
moves east into the St. Lawrence Valley later today into early
Sunday, with scattered rounds of showers. The trough slowly
tracks east through the day Sunday reaching Vermont by later
Sunday into Sunday night. Some isolated thunder is possible with
these showers, though instability is limited. Precipitation
amounts will be light, generally below a half an inch. The
higher amounts around a quarter inch will be in northern New
York, primarily in the northern St. Lawrence Valley. The trough
will pull away to the northeast on Monday. As the trough
occludes and drifts northeast, the parent upper low will
continue to keep showers chances around with wrap around
cyclonic flow. Clouds and shower chances near the International
Border and northern New York will continue through the day
Monday with seasonable temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Ridging should dominate for Wednesday before it
pushes to the east for the end of the week. An upper-level
trough looks to build in Thursday and Friday and bring the
chance for some showers. A weak northern-stream low should track
from west to east out of the Great Lakes Region and into Quebec
on during this time, bringing the chance for the showers. A low
will try to develop off the Mid- Atlantic Coast and move
northward into the region, but model guidance is very split on
this. This would enhance rainfall late Friday into Saturday, but
right now the rain reaching the region is not favored among the
ensembles.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Any lingering fog will lift before 13Z.
VFR conditions will then prevail through this evening. A few
showers should develop across northern New York and southern
Vermont late tonight and a brief reduction to MVFR visibility
will be possible. Ceilings will begin to decrease late tonight,
with them possibly dropping into the MVFR range at MPV and SLK
by 12Z. Winds will generally be southerly up to around 15 KT
today, with the highest gusts at PBG and BTV. Winds lighten a
little tonight, generally staying under 10 KT. Some LLWS is
possible late tonight, especially at MSS.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Myskowski/Neiles
AVIATION...Myskowski