557
FXUS61 KBTV 251826
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
126 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming and breezy conditions will continue tonight ahead of a
warm front that will bring widespread rainfall overnight.
Scattered showers and warm weather will precede a cold front
Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. Behind this,
blustery weather and localized lake effect snow in St. Lawrence
County into the western Adirondacks will develop over the day on
Thanksgiving. More isolated shower activity will develop over
Vermont later in the day. Snow showers will transition towards
northwestern slopes on Friday with a trend towards calmer
conditions again this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1259 PM EST Tuesday...Anomalously warm air has begun to
stream into the area from the south with mid to high clouds
blanketing the region. Southerly warm advection has allowed
temperatures in southern Vermont and the Champlain Valley to
reach 50 which is 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.
With the surging warm air, breezy southerly winds are
accompanying the warmth with channeling ongoing in the Champlain
Valley. Winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph will
continue this afternoon into tonight before weakening slightly
as lapse rates become less steep and saturate with increasing
moisture. This warming and breezy conditions are a result of an
approaching upper level low in the Great Lakes that will slide
eastward tonight. An associated warm front will bring widespread
wetting rain to majority of the area by 6-8PM tonight and
continue into Wednesday morning. Rain showers are already
pushing northeastward in the Finger Lakes Region of New York.
Warm air will keep precipitation all rain overnight despite
typical diurnal cooling. Snow levels will even rise above
5000ft agl which will lead to rain even at the summit levels of
the higher terrain. Rainfall amounts between 0.1 and 0.4" inches
are expected with additional snow melt in the higher terrain.
Given recent dryness, no flooding from the rainfall and added
snow melt is anticipated. Steadier rain will turn more scattered
by early Wednesday morning.

Low level moisture from southerly flow will keep shower chances
through the day tomorrow with periods of drizzle/mist between
showers as low clouds will sink towards the surface.
Temperatures tomorrow will remain mild and a few degrees warmer
than today into the low 50s. By tomorrow late afternoon/evening,
a strong cold front by a temperature standpoint, will pass
through the St. Lawrence Valley and northern New York. Cooling
aloft will already be ongoing as the upper low tracks closer and
occludes. This will lead in marginal 100-200J/kg of CAPE
coupled with strong synoptic ascent in the left exit region of a
defined jet streak. An isolated rumble of thunder is possible,
but left out of the forecast due to uncertainty. Overall, the
front will be fast moving with low QPF with rain lasting perhaps
only an hour or two.

Once the cold front passes through, much colder air will advect
into northern New York with surface flow turning southwesterly.
Good flow along the Lake Ontario fetch will help develop a
pronounced lake effect band into portions of southern St.
Lawrence County late Wednesday night. The band will likely start
off as rain before quickly changing over to snow. Behind the
cold front, winds will also rapidly increase with gusts to near
30 mph which could lead to some pockets of blowing snow. In
combination with gusty winds, parts of the northern New York
will have some challenging travel Wednesday night, so take the
time to be careful heading to any holiday festivities.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1259 PM EST Tuesday...

**A Winter Storm Watch for Lake Effect is in effect 1 AM
 Thursday to 1 AM Saturday in Southeastern St. Lawrence County**

The center of the low pressure will gradually be heading to the
east across Quebec Thursday and Friday, causing strong cold air
advection. Winds will be southwesterly on Thursday, gradually
changing to westerly Thursday night and northwesterly for Friday
and Friday night. The cold air aloft will cause a band of lake
effect snow to form off Lake Ontario, and while the flow is
southwesterly on Thursday, it will reach into St. Lawrence
County. It will gradually be sinking to the south so it will not
end up stalled over one area. This will prevent one area from
seeing the heavy snow for an extended period of time and
minimize the totals. However, the high rates and the relatively
slow movement will cause several inches to fall across parts of
St. Lawrence County, with the highest totals on and south of
Route 4. Upslope snow should fall across the far northern Greens
during this period as well, particularly near Jay Peak.
Combined with strong winds, there will be blowing snow,
especially across the Adirondacks where snow will be drier. The
strongest low-level jet will be positioned across northern New
York where gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range are possible.
Channeling of the southwest flow up the St. Lawrence Valley on
Thursday and some downsloping across the far northern
Adirondacks will help enhance the gusts there. The jet will
remain through Friday, and some downsloping could enhance winds
on the eastern Adirondacks and Greens on Friday into Friday
night.

The lake effect band shifts to the south Thursday night as the winds
become more westerly and northwesterly. With continued moist
cyclonic flow, it will transition into an upslope event. Several
inches are expected in the typical areas. Flow appears to be
marginally blocked, with the mixed layer looking to reach up to
around 4,000 feet, favoring snow higher up on the slopes and on the
immediate east sides. By this point, temperatures will be well below
freezing everywhere so anywhere that gets precipitation will see
snow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1259 PM EST Tuesday...High pressure located near the
DelMarVa Peninsula and drier air flowing into northern New York
and Vermont is expected to result in a quiet, dry, and cold
weather for the first half of the weekend. Clouds will be on the
decrease throughout the day Saturday, but persistent
west/northwesterly flow should keep temperatures from rising
above the mid 20s to mid 30s and could make the morning a touch
blustery or brisk. Clouds fill in again quickly Saturday night
ahead of another approaching system in the Midwest, though they
should be mostly high clouds, allowing temperatures to fall into
the teens and lower 20s overnight.

Next week, active weather returns as surface low pressure slides
northeast from the Great Lakes into Ontario and then Quebec near
James Bay. There remains little run to run consistency amongst
global deterministic models on this system, so forecast confidence
decreases overall during this time frame. As it stands, there is
indication that temperatures will be increasing towards seasonable
normals Sunday and Monday as most solutions set the forecast area in
the warm sector of the incoming system and have southerly to
southeasterly flow dominating. Most likely time frame for measurable
precipitation to fall will be Sunday, particularly Sunday afternoon
with models all placing a strong vort max near the St. Lawrence
Valley and precipitable water values peaking around 0.75".

Probability of precip will be about 40-80% Sunday afternoon with
highest chances close to the vort max. Whether precipitation starts
as snow, rain, or a mix of both will depend greatly on elevation,
timing of arrival, snow levels, and temperatures Sunday. Most models
have a touch of snow at the onset, then turning to rain in the
afternoon and evening as milder air flows in and highs reach the mid
30s to lower 40s. However, some higher elevations could keep snow
the entire time, especially if wet bulb cooling occurs and as lows
fall into the 20s and lower 30s early Monday morning.

Southerly winds could also become gusty, especially on the
mountains, on Sunday and Sunday night as models depict a low level
jet 60-70 knots at 850mb. Gusty winds may mix to the surface at
times ahead of precipitation and before atmospheric columns
saturate. A cold frontal boundary is likely to sweep through toward
the beginning of the work week, drying out Monday and Tuesday except
for the return of some lake effect showers possible from the Great
Lakes in renewed westerly flow. Temperatures also decrease into
the midweek under strong cold air advection, highs 30s to lower
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions and quiet weather prevail
this afternoon and should remain in place through 00Z as high clouds
continue to increase in coverage. An approaching storm system will
drag a warm front and light rain into the region, starting as early
as 23Z today, but more likely around 00Z-03Z Wednesday. Visibilities
may be reduced in this rain at times, around 3-6 miles, and ceilings
will also be on the decrease to 1000-3000 feet above ground level by
about 02Z-05Z. Winds will continue out of the south-southeast for
the majority of locations, though MSS is likely to hold onto a
northeasterly wind instead.

Winds gusting 20-30 knots this afternoon at BTV will be on the
decrease as the rain arrives, and LLWS is possible at RUT on and off
22Z Tuesday through 09Z Wednesday as a low level jet scrapes the
southern portion of Vermont tonight. Ceilings are expected to
continue lowering across all sites tonight, with widespread IFR cigs
likely by 06Z-12Z, potentially sooner across southern Vermont and
the St. Lawrence Valley. Steady rain is anticipated to become more
scattered and showery tomorrow, though saturated soundings indicate
we could have a low cloud and drizzle type of day with ceilings 1000
feet and lower much of the time.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Likely RA, Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Thanksgiving Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Likely SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN, Areas BS.
Friday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Likely SHSN, Areas BS.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SN,
Likely RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty winds over Lake Champlain will continue this afternoon as
a warm front approaches the region. Winds and gusts will
slightly weaken this evening, but will continue to be focused
over the broad waters to 15 to 25 knots. Waves could quickly
build towards 2 to 4 feet overnight primarily over the broad
waters.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at Colchester Reef will likely leave it
inoperable for an extended period of time. Use extra caution
when navigating the broad waters, and please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through late
     Friday night for NYZ029.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV