004
FXUS61 KBTV 080105
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
905 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After the showers move out this evening, mostly dry conditions will
prevail through Monday. Temperatures will be relatively seasonable
with lowering humidity. Wildfire smoke looks to linger at the
surface through tomorrow. Widespread rain will occur Tuesday with
the possibility for a few thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 905 PM EDT Saturday...Forecast remains in great shape,
with no updates needed. Prior discussion follows. Have a great
night!

Prior discussion...
The stratiform rain has mostly exited southern Vermont and it
will leave within the next couple hours. A few showers have
developed this afternoon along a weak cold front. These will
slowly move south this afternoon and evening, and a few will
contain lightning. While 0-6 KM shear would be sufficient for
some severe storms, with values generally in the 30-40 KT range,
CAPE is weak. Cooling temperatures aloft will help create some
but weak surface heating will keep values relatively low. If BTV
remains dry, it will break the 10 Saturdays of measurable
precipitation streak. Drier air is trying to infiltrate the
region from the northwest behind the front but its progression
has been quite slow. Weak surface winds are significantly
limiting the advection. Ahead of this front, mixing has been
very poor and it has kept surface dew points higher than
forecast. While they should decline slightly this afternoon,
they will probably stay in the upper 50s and 60s for most areas
heading into tonight. This poor mixing has kept the Canadian
wildfire smoke in place at the surface, though it has also
remained a bit across parts of northern New York that have seen
the drier air and better mixing. There is no reason the smoke
will go anywhere tonight, and with light flow tomorrow, it will
probably linger a bit through the day, though mixing should be
better. Fog development is likely across parts of the region
tonight as skies clear, and it will be aided by the limited
mixing/drying this afternoon and plenty of condensation nuclei
from the smoke. It should be most widespread across the valleys
of southern and eastern Vermont. These areas have seen rain
today and they should not get into the drier air moving in from
the north. Outside the smoke, conditions tomorrow will be quite
benign. Highs will be in the 70s for most places, and the
humidity should finally be able to drop off once diurnal
heating/mixing occurs. Dew points are expected to fall into the
50s and upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 416 PM EDT Saturday...After a brief period of quieter weather,
precipitation chances will once again increase Monday ahead of a
frontal system passing through the region. Much of region should see
an increase of clouds throughout the day Monday, with the better
chances for showers arriving towards the evening. Southerly flow
will make for increasing moisture ahead of the frontal boundary,
allowing for fairly widespread precipitation to develop. Preliminary
rainfall amounts generally look to be between 0.5 to 1.0 inches,
although there is still some uncertainty as to how quickly the front
progresses and if any convective elements develop. WPC continues to
maintain a Marginal Risk in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook across
portions of the region for both Day 3 and Day 4, so trends will
continue to be monitored as we closer. Temperatures on Monday and
Tuesday look to be seasonable, with high temperatures climbing into
the 70s area wide. Overnight lows look to be on the milder side with
plenty of rain and cloud cover, with most locations in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 416 PM EDT Saturday...Unsettled and showery weather conditions
look to continue into mid- week as an upper-level trough continues to
meander across the region. Several shortwaves look to pivot around
the upper trough, bringing chances for precipitation Wednesday into
Thursday. Most of this activity looks to be more focused across the
northern portion of the forecast area, especially the higher
terrain. Some drier conditions may look to build in towards the end
of the week with more zonal flow across the region, although it will
largely depend on how quickly the upper level trough pushes
eastward, with plenty of uncertainty at this time. Temperatures
during this time frame look to be seasonable, with high temperatures
warming into the mid 70s to near 80s later this week. Overnight low
temperatures will generally be in the 50s to low 60s for much of the
week.

.CLIMATE...

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Terminals are generally VFR with the
exception of MPV where haze from Canadian wildfire smoke has
reduced visibilities to MVFR. Winds across the area will
continue to trend towards calm by sunset. By 05Z, as the
nocturnal boundary develops and sinks towards the surface,
smoke/haze should trend visibilities at all sites outside of
SLK/MSS towards 3-5SM. This thinking is also based on
persistence from last nights observations, but with slightly
higher visibilities, but reductions none the lest. Confidence is
higher in further visibility reductions at EFK/MPV, where
afternoon rain has fallen, to IFR with some guidance indicating
near 1/2SM with FG. Ceilings if fog develops would be 100-500 ft
agl. The timing of the lowest visibilities will be between 07Z
and 11Z. RUT may also see vsbys to 2SM based on current radar
trends of rain showers, but lower confidence exits there. Beyond
12Z, HZ will remain across the area with VFR conditions and
light winds through the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...93/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Danzig