063
FXUS61 KBTV 181137
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
737 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged stretch of beautiful weather will continue into early
next week as high pressure settles over the region. Ample sunshine,
light winds, and warmer than normal temperatures can be expected
each day. Patchy frost will be possible again tonight, but overnight
temperatures should gradually warm over the next few days
thereafter. Our next chance of rain doesn`t arrive until the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 734 AM EDT Friday...Only change with this update was to
expire the Frost Advisory. Temperatures are currently near
freezing in the Champlain Valley away from Lake Champlain, but
they should rise as the sunshine continues to strengthen. Valley
fog will dissipate over the next hour or two, as well, leaving
clear skies behind. The forecast has this covered and remains in
good shape, so no other changes were needed.

Previous discussion...Another cool and frosty start out there
this morning with temperatures mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
The Frost Advisory remains in effect for the Champlain Valley until
8 am, which is still quite reasonable. Like yesterday, we also have
patchy fog in the favored river valleys this morning. This will
dissipate as the sun rises, giving way to another sunny day. Full
sunshine and the dry airmass will allow temperatures to warm into
the 60s pretty much areawide this afternoon. Saturday will be a near
carbon copy of today, but highs will be a few degrees warmer,
low/mid 60s to around 70F. Patchy frost is expected again tonight
into early Saturday morning, though lows will be a little warmer
than this morning. Hence expect temperatures/frost potential to be a
little more marginal in the Champlain Valley, so additional Frost
Advisories are uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 343 AM EDT Friday...A large region of high pressure at the
surface and aloft will remain the controlling weather feature across
the North Country for the short term period. Air mass will continue
to moderate. So, despite mostly clear skies Saturday night,
anticipate lows in the lower 40s across the Champlain and St.
Lawrence Valleys, and generally in the mid-upper 30s elsewhere. Some
patchy AM frost and fog remains possible in the northern Adirondack
region and across ern/nern VT. Sunday will continue mostly sunny and
quiet. However, southwesterly gradient flow does strengthen somewhat
Sunday afternoon. Looking at winds 10-20 mph in the Champlain and
St. Lawrence Valleys with some aftn gusts locally in the 20-30 mph
range. Also appears model consensus is too high on dewpoints given
deterministic model sounding profiles. With better low-level mixing
expected, have adjusted afternoon dewpoints downward into the upper
30s/lower 40s and closer to 10th percentile of NBM system.
Otherwise, PoPs NIL thru the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 343 AM EDT Friday...Large-scale, deep layer ridge will remain
our controlling weather feature thru Tuesday night/early Wednesday.
Continued moderation of the prevailing air mass is anticipated, with
afternoon valley highs on Monday into the low-mid 70s, and likely
remaining in the low-mid 70s Tue/Wed. May see temperatures near
record highs in a few spots.

As the deep-layer ridge breaks down, a strong northern stream
shortwave trough and attendant cold front is expected to approach
from the northern Great Lakes region. However, limited moisture
availability and a somewhat weaker frontal structure in the 00Z NWP
guidance suite suggests precipitation will be light to moderate as
sfc cold front sweeps thru the region Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. At this point, have indicated a brief period of 50-60% PoPs
for Wednesday night. A post-frontal northerly wind shift will result
in much cooler/more seasonable temperatures for Thursday, with highs
expected in the low-mid 50s (about 20 deg cooler than expected
conditions on Wednesday). Strong low-level CAA over Lake Champlain
may yield a period of northerly 20-30kt winds Wednesday night into
Thursday. Otherwise, no hazardous weather expected during the
extended fcst period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Relatively quiet weather is expected for
this TAF period with prevailing VFR conditions coupled with
light and variable winds. Only caveat is possible IFR/LIFR
visibility and ceilings at KSLK and KMPV, and possibly KMSS.
Best chances for fog would be 08z to 12z Sat, but like this
morning, would expect it to be fairly intermittent, precluding
the need to add it into the TAFs at this time.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Hastings