466
FXUS61 KBTV 021126
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
726 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the North Country through the
weekend and much of next week. Seasonably dry weather and cool
temperatures will continue through today. Temperatures will
moderate for the second half of the weekend and next week with
highs in the 80s once again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Outside of morning fog chances, there will be little in the way
of sensible weather with high pressure firmly ensconced over the
North Country. Another beautiful day is ahead with highs
running a few degrees below seasonal averages mainly in the
70s. Temperatures do trend warmer for Sunday, mainly around the
low to mid 80s as dry air does little to keep highs tamped down.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 157 AM EDT Saturday...More of the same is expected Sunday
night through Monday with persistent dry conditions. RH will be
dipping into the 25-45% range each afternoon and could have some
implications on fire fuels conditions and drought as the dry
spell continues. Highs will be running mainly in the low/mid
80s for Monday; Some upper 80s are looking probable for southern
Vermont valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 157 AM EDT Saturday...Surface ridging will remain through most
of next week featuring relatively calm and quiet conditions.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm with the center of the high to
our east, however, this air mass will remain on the dry side so
dewpoints will only be in the upper 50s to near 60 keeping things
fairly comfortable. There`s still some uncertainty mid to late
week regarding how persistent the high will be and if it will
break down. Ensemble trends have been towards a longer lasting
high which will keep clear and dry skies through Friday. The
GEFS and GEPS do note some small kinks in the mid-level height
pattern Thursday, but dry air will help to limit any wetting
rains. Probabilities of greater than 0.1" of rain are only
10-20% through Friday which will likely lead be our longest dry
stretch of the year. Several locations across north and central
Vermont as well as the St. Lawrence Valley have only seen at
most a quarter to a third of an inch of rain over the last
72-hours. This dry and warm spell will lead to possible
critically dry relative humidities allowing for further drying
of fine fuels. Fire weather concerns will need to be considered
and monitored as we get into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Fog is dissipating from the usual valleys
with MPV/SLK trending towards or already at VFR. VFR conditions
at all sites is expected to persist through the daytime today
with light and variable winds at all sites. Canadian wildfire
smoke will increase into the afternoon which will trend
visibilities towards 6SM. How thick the smoke becomes remains
uncertain as to if visibilities will reduce further towards
MVFR or not. Confidence is highest at MSS/SLK in MVFR
visibilities to 5SM based on upstream observations. Smoke will
move west to east, impacting MSS/SLK/PBG/BTV in the afternoon.
Fog is expected to develop again tonight at MPV/SLK. With the
added smoke tonight, there may be additional sites impacted by
shallow fog, but confidence is low and will be monitored in
future TAF packages.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig