882
FXUS61 KBTV 251144
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
744 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring scattered showers as it moves
southeastward through the region today; in southern areas there
will be a threat of thunderstorms during the midday hours. Drier
and cooler conditions briefly return tonight, then a warming
trend develops through Monday with limited chances for rain.
More unsettled weather is anticipated through Wednesday,
followed by dry and cooler conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Friday...Bottom line up front: potential for
hazardous weather today has continued to diminish.

A well-defined frontal zone is over the region this morning
with weak low pressure over southeastern Canada attached to a
cold front oriented from northeast to southwest. It will
continue sliding towards the southeast throughout the day, and
increasing low level convergence ahead of the boundary along
ample moisture will support scattered to numerous showers. The
cloud cover out ahead of the boundary and early day timing of
the front will greatly limit low-level lapse rates, resulting in
poor instability to have low probabilities of thunder, let
alone severe thunderstorms, today. With favorable effective
shear for some storm organization, if there is sufficient
instability in southern portions of Vermont, such as in Orange,
Rutland, and Windsor counties, these areas could still see an
isolated stronger thunderstorm. This potential is limited based
on the early frontal timing, with maybe the noon to 2 PM
timeframe being most favorable. Some widely scattered additional
showers are possible with a secondary cold front moving through
during the afternoon, but the thunderstorm threat will be
diminishing with introduction of a plethora of dry air aloft.

Otherwise, we`re still looking at quiet weather tonight into
Saturday. Have added patchy fog wording to the climatologically
favored areas and lowered temperatures accordingly with
expectation of good radiational cooling, especially over the
Adirondacks given the latest model guidance showing high
pressure moving right over the region by daybreak. Aside from
some cirrus, skies should largely be sunny. With good mixing
depths associated with dry low level air, temperatures should
still warm up quite nicely into the low to mid 80s, making for
an arguably perfect summer day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 308 AM EDT Friday...Saturday night will begin with some
high clouds streaming eastward across the region with otherwise
quiet weather. Somewhat warmer and more humid air will return
for Sunday as southerly flow returns.

A shortwave trough will cross our region during the morning
hours while the associated frontal system passes to our south.
There has been a notable southward shift in the model guidance,
hence a large reduction in PoPs from the previous forecast.
Showers and thunderstorms generally look less likely, especially
as one goes northeastward. Relatedly, high temperatures for
Sunday are tricky. Where precipitation chances are low across
northern areas, mostly sunny skies during most of the day will
support highs soaring into the mid and upper 80s for many
locations. Farther south, there is higher spread in possible
temperatures (from the low 80s to near 90), dependent on how
long cloud cover and rain persists.

Winds on the mountain summits may be a bit higher than
currently forecast, particularly during the morning, as
southwesterly flow increases ahead of the trough passage.
Thereafter there is greater confidence in lighter winds, as well
diminishing precipitation chances across the area. Total
rainfall on Sunday, relatedly, is rather uncertain with large
spread in 10th-90th percentile amounts, especially southern
areas again, where there is a low chance of substantially
heavier rainfall (0.5"-0.75") than what the blend of models is
showing (up to 0.1" inch). Interestingly it would appear where
this rain is more likely the environment will be relatively
stable with lower thunderstorm potential, while farther north
instability will be more likely to support isolated
thunderstorms but the forcing for convection may be too limited
to see any precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 308 AM EDT Friday...Sunday night into Monday will be warm
and dry ahead of an approaching cold front which will cross the
area Monday night. Another frontal passage will bring showers
to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. After a warm start to
the week, will have a cooling trend as we head through the week.
Models have not been very consistent with timing of showers for
next week, so would call it uncertain at best. At this time not
seeing any significant weather events, but several chances for
showers to watch.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Changeable flight categories expected
over the next 18 hours associated with a cold front and a broken
line of showers with possible embedded thunderstorms. A brief
window of MVFR ceilings/visibilities is likely at most sites,
along with some lightning possible. Breezy south/southwest winds
5 to 15 knots ahead of this boundary will shift to the
west/northwest by 15z Friday. As this occurs ceilings will lower
to MVFR at most sites with some IFR possible at SLK/MPV and MSS
through 15z, before a slow improving trend toward VFR occurs by
18z.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles