195
FXUS61 KBTV 081732
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1232 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds and scattered showers will develop today associated with
a cold front passage, and stronger winds are likely to develop for
most locations tonight behind the front. High pressure will provide
seasonably dry and cool conditions for Saturday and most of Sunday,
followed by a widespread, beneficial rain Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1223 PM EST Friday...Our first band of showers is slowly
sliding south of the international border at this time, and the
main front that will produce more widespread activity is just
north of Montreal now. Our winds have started picking up, and
this will continue as this frontal boundary sags south. The
forecast is in good shape, and minimal changes were needed.
Excerpt of previous discussion below.

As the front dips south of the forecast area this evening, gusts
will likely increase further to 30-40mph for a short period around
midnight as the upper levels begin to dry out and mixing deepens as
high pressure begins to build in. Still looking at sub advisory
gusts for the most part, but given the depth of mixing a few +40mph
gusts can`t be ruled out. Temps will drop rapidly this evening as
well into the 20s and 30s for overnight lows, and with winds gusting
through the night, it will feel more like the teens and 20s. Winds
will finally begin to slacken by Saturday afternoon with skies
clearing through the day. Highs will be sub-normal in the upper 30s
to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 327 AM EST Friday...Quiet weather is expected for the last half
of the weekend with ridging slowly crossing the area. Clearing skies
and light winds will allow for chilly temperatures Saturday night;
lows in the 20s are expected, with some of the usual cold spots in
the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks likely dipping into the teens.
Sunday will start out with plenty of sunshine, but clouds will
increase from west to east during the day ahead of our next system.
Although a few showers may make it into the St Lawrence Valley late
in the day, overall the day will be dry. Highs will be in the upper
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 327 AM EST Friday...High pressure exits to the east Sunday
night while an upper trough pivots along/just north of the
international border. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will cross from
the Great Lakes and through our region Sunday night into Monday
morning. Showers will quickly spread from west to east Sunday
evening and continue across our region overnight. Lows will be in
the mid 30s to mid 40s, but snow levels will remain fairly high due
to a warm layer around 800mb, so the precipitation should fall as
rain. The trough will move through pretty quickly, so precipitation
amounts will be mostly be a quarter of an inch or less. We will see
a brief break in the precipitation Monday morning once the front
moves by, but expect showers to redevelop during the
afternoon/evening as another upper trough and secondary cold front
approach from the northwest. This second round of showers will
continue Monday night into Tuesday, focusing mostly in the north and
especially in the mountains as flow turns to the northwest. Some
snow will be possible in the higher elevations Monday night into
Tuesday morning. High pressure returns by Tuesday night, with dry
weather to persist into midweek. Monday will be the warmest day of
the week with temperatures warming into the 50s to near 60F, but
cooler conditions return after the cold frontal passage Monday
night/Tuesday. Wednesday will be dry, but uncertainty grows
thereafter as models diverge with handling of our next upper trough.
Have stayed close to the NBM for the end of this period given the
varying model solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are
expected the next several hours. Ceilings at KSLK remain MVFR,
but are around 4000 ft agl for most. Little change is expected,
with a broken band of showers approaching KPBG and KEFK, and
then more numerous shower activity that will shift south between
about 22z and 02z. Any activity later in the evening will be
more likely to decrease visibility, and where it is cold enough,
may mix in with snow, though temperatures will remain above
freezing preventing any from sticking. Winds have increased to 8
to 14 knots with gusts 20 to 26 knots out of the west to west-
northwest. Wind speeds will increase towards 12 to 18 knots
sustained, with gusts 27 to 34 knots possible. At 2000 ft agl,
west to west-northwest winds will remain around 40 to 45 knots.
Any lull in winds could result in brief intervals of low-level
wind shear or rough air near mountain levels. After 06z, high
pressure will enter the region and shift east, allowing winds to
gradually subside and trending skies clear.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA.
Veterans Day: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 327 AM EST Friday...A lake wind advisory is in effect for
gusty southwesterly winds this morning becoming strong this
afternoon and evening up to 30 kts. Waves will build through the
day, peaking this evening into early Saturday in the 3 to 6
foot range before diminishing Saturday afternoon. Small craft
should exercise caution if heading out into the broad waters of
Lake Champlain over the next 36 hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes
MARINE...