222
FXUS61 KBTV 070522
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
122 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue this afternoon into
tomorrow with heat indices into the mid-90s. Showers and
thunderstorms, some of which may be strong or severe, are
expected Monday and Tuesday with gusty winds and periods of
heavy rainfall possible. The weather turns quieter mid to late
this week with seasonal temperatures and occasional chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 714 PM EDT Sunday...The hottest temperatures have already
occurred today. We expect temperatures and heat indices to
continue falling throughout this evening. For this reason, we
have ended the Heat Advisory.

Previous discussion...Hot and humid conditions will continue
today with scattered showers and potentially some embedded
rumbles of thunder. Ridging over New England has led
temperatures to reach into the upper 80s and low 90s by later
this afternoon. Additionally, dewpoints have surged to near or
at 70 making it feel muggy out. As a result of the heat and
humidity, diurnally driven instability has formed a few showers
across the Champlain Valley, though no severe storms are
expected. While observations have not seen lightning in these
cells yet, instability is high enough to warrant some potential
rumbles. These cells are also high based meaning some gusty
winds up to 20 mph could be associated with them. Some brief
periods of heavy rain cannot be ruled out with Pwats around
1.5." In regards to the heat risk, these showers have brought up
dewpoints, but consequently lowered temperatures under rain
cooled air. Heat indices around the area are hovering around 90F
but are still forecasted to reach into the mid 90s by mid
afternoon. Behind these showers, satellite shows subsidence and
some more stable air across the St. Lawrence Valley which should
help mix out the higher dewpoints and briefly increase
temperatures in addition to leading to more sunny conditions. It
may be difficult to reach heat indices near 100 this afternoon
with the showers and clouds cover around, but indices in the low
to mid 90s appear more realistic.

Tonight, while diurnally-driven showers will dissipate, the
main area of showers, which is riding along the ridge just north
of the International Border, will sag south into northern
Vermont, primarily in the Northeast Kingdom. A few strong storms
are possible but should lift north by sunrise. Lows tonight
will offer little relief from the heat today with values in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

By Monday, the heat and humidity will continue with highs in the
mid 80s to near 90 and heat indices in the low 90s. A slow
moving cold front will begin to push moisture and shower chances
into the region by Monday morning. These showers and embedded
thunderstorms may be strong to severe with heavy rain and gusty
winds. The latest high-res guidance continues to show that
convection on Monday will largely be in the general vicinity of
a frontal boundary that will ever so slightly sink south
throughout the day. Moisture will build ahead of the front which
should allow for CAPE values in excess of 1000-1500 J/kg to
develop with shear values around 30 kts. Additionally, very high
Pwats, likely around 2 inches, should allow for torrential
downpours should any thunderstorms develop. Given the axis of
the front, and its slowness, training showers could lead to
localized flooding. The greatest threat area will be right along
the international border through Monday night. Showers chances
begin to wain Monday night across northern New York and northern
Vermont with lingering showers in southern Vermont. Overnight
lows will be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday...On Tuesday, the frontal boundary will
still be over portions of Vermont as it stalls due to the
presence of the remnants of Tropical Depression Chantal. While
the effects of Chantal will not be felt in our region, it will
help briefly stall the boundary leading to additional shower and
thunderstorm chances across southern Vermont. The main axis for
showers on Tuesday will not be in the same location as Monday
which should help mitigate any flood potential, however, heavy
rain in southern Vermont still seems probable. The boundary will
finally move out by Tuesday night as a shortwave will help
amplify the upper-level trough across the Great Lakes
responsible for the surface front thereby ending the rainfall
chances across the North Country heading into the middle of the
week. Temperatures will also see a relief from the heat with
highs in the upper 70s to near 80 and dewpoints near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday...During the long term our cwa remains
btwn mid/upper lvl ridge off the se conus coast and general
troughiness near Hudson Bay. This large scale pattern indicates
westerly flow aloft wl prevail with several embedded s/w`s and
associated boundaries impacting our cwa every 18 to 30 hours.
Timing of these features wl become increasingly more difficult
later in the extended fcst, but confidence remains high for a
period of unsettled/active weather on Thurs. Latest guidance
continues to support arrival of dampening mid/upper lvl trof and
associated s/w energy, and sfc boundary to support high chc/low
likely pops for Thurs. Still some spread on timing which wl
play an important role in amount of instability, but shear wl be
present given moderately strong mid/upper lvl flow. Weak ridge
builds for Friday into Sat, but additional energy is progged to
arrive late Sat into Sunday with more chances for precip. No
days look to be a complete rain out in the long term, but
several windows of unsettled wx is likely during the time frame.
No significant or hazardous heat is anticipated, as westerly
flow aloft should prevent thermo ridge from building into the ne
conus thru next weekend. However, temps wl be at or slightly
above normal with highs upper 70s to mid 80s and lows upper 50s
to mid 60s. A few muggier nights are possible at times in the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Mostly clear skies prevail across the
region this morning but we will see mid-level clouds begin to
spread from west to east after sunrise. Gusty south winds will
be possible at most terminals between 15Z and 22Z as a cold
front will be slow to move across the region this morning. An
abrupt wind shift from south to northwest is expected at most
terminals this afternoon/evening following the FROPA with winds
abating behind the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible this afternoon, especially across the
International Border. Given the lack of confidence in any one
shower impacting a given terminal, we have opted to use PROB30
groups rather than prevailing as the showers/thunderstorms will
be hit or miss. However, should a thunderstorm impact a
terminal, visibilities could drop below 3 miles with very heavy
rainfall. We should see rain showers taper off after 3Z with
ceilings beginning to drop below 3000 ft following the FROPA.


Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Forecast high temperatures for Sunday will bring us within a few
degrees of record temps for a few sites. Here are the record
high temperatures for Sunday:

Max Temp Records
Date     KBTV     KMPV     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
07-06  95|2010  91|2010  95|1993  93|2010  91|1933

Here are the record high minimum temperatures for Sunday:

High Min Temp Records
DateKBTV     KPBG     KSLK
07-06  74|1897  74|2010  65|1931

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     VTZ005-009.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig/Storm
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Clay
CLIMATE...NWS BTV