465
FXUS61 KBTV 212341
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
641 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered, light precipitation will continue across the region today
as a cold front crosses the region, with cooler and drier conditions
for tomorrow. Another system will move through the region Sunday
into Monday, bringing a light snowfall to much of the area. A warm
front will follow with mainly rain on Tuesday, and unsettled weather
will continue into Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 111 PM EST Friday...Precipitation is making its way east
from the Champlain Valley. The main frontal axis is still to our
north. So bumped up PoPs for a bit longer this evening until
that boundary clears the area later this evening. The forecast
is in good shape otherwise. Have a great night! Previous
discussion below...

Any precipitation amounts are still expected to be light,
especially as drier air continues to move into behind the front.
Overnight lows tonight will be seasonable, with temperatures in
the 20s to low 30s.

High pressure will build in late tonight and during the day
tomorrow, bringing cool and dry conditions for the start of the
weekend. Daytime high temperatures will generally be in 30s to low
40s, a few degrees cooler compared to this afternoon. Chilly
overnight lows are expected Saturday night into early Sunday
morning, with temperatures dropping into the teens and 20s across
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 111 PM EST Friday...Chances for snowfall continue to look
likely for the later half of this weekend as a quick-hitting
shortwave trough pushes through the region. A bulk of the
precipitation looks to move through during the day Sunday, with some
lingering showers overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Temperatures
look cold enough to support snow across the entire region, although
they will be marginal within the broader valleys which may allow for
more of a rain/snow mix with high temperatures on Sunday generally
in the 30s. Snowfall amounts look to be rather light, with little to
no accumulation in the valleys and a few inches possible in the
higher summits. Overnight lows Sunday night will generally drop into
the 20s, allowing for any lingering showers to fall as snow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 111 PM EST Friday...Upslope mountain snow showers are expected
to start the work week, particularly in the morning. Moisture and
forcing are limited though, so any accumulation would be minor. A
more substantial round of precipitation will then arrive later
Tuesday into Tuesday night as a warm front lifts across the region.
Temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s at the onset Tuesday
night, so there could be a bit of wintry mix when precipitation
starts, especially in eastern VT where cold air will be tougher to
scour out on the east side of the Greens. Precipitation will become
all rain, though it`ll turn more scattered on Wednesday. Wednesday
will also be the warmest day of the week, as south winds behind the
warm front will allow temperatures to warm into the mid 40s to low
50s. For Thanksgiving...models have come into better agreement for
the holiday, especially the GFS which had a somewhat extreme
solution at this time yesterday. The parent low of Wednesday`s warm
front will move northward through the Great Lakes toward Hudson Bay,
pushing a frontal boundary eastward through our area sometime late
Wednesday or Thursday. Though timing is still uncertain (some 12-24
hours different between various models), it does look to move
through relatively quickly with no real secondary low development.
The result would be rain showers changing over to snow, especially
over the higher terrain. Once the initial front moves through, winds
will turn toward the west, and would anticipate snow showers to
become focused downwind of Lake Ontario, streaming into northern NY
and potentially into the northern or central Greens. However, there
continues to be differences in how progressive this system is and
how quickly the low and its fronts push eastward. So while the start
of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend continues to look unsettled,
there`s still plenty of uncertainty in the details, including
precipitation type, amount, and where the highest amounts will
occur. We continue to ask that you please follow the latest
forecasts through this upcoming weekend and into early next week,
especially if you have any travel plans.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...A weak cold front continues to gradually
progress southeastwards towards Vermont and northern New York.
Light showers are moving east-northeast across the Champlain
Valley right now, and a few isolated showers are present north
of the international border along the frontal boundary. Any
precipitation should wrap up by about 03-04z. A mix of MVFR and
VFR ceilings are being observed with clouds generally 2000-6000
ft agl, with localized 700-1000 ft ceilings at KSLK, and
there`s not expected to be meaningful change in ceilings over
the next 12-18 hours. One thing to monitor is the progression of
lower ceilings and visibilities currently near Ottawa and over
Montreal. It doesn`t appear likely for these conditions to shift
south of the international border, but will be watching it in
case AMDs may be necessary. Winds are currently out of the south
to southwest around 5 to 8 knots. Speeds will slow towards 5
knots overnight, but the direction may be briefly variable
before becoming persistently west-northwest to northwest at 5
to 9 knots during the daylight hours.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN, Likely
RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN,
Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance RA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA.
Wednesday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV