


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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186 FXUS61 KBTV 100625 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 225 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A relatively quiet day with a few showers along mountain ridges today will give way to more numerous showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. The potential for hit or miss rain will decrease heading into the weekend, a warming trend will begin. Hotter conditions will peak on Sunday ahead of a weak cold front, which will bring conditions a little closer to normal after rounds of showers and storms. Then a return to climatological afternoon pop up activity will resume with seasonably warm conditions expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 225 AM EDT Thursday...A stationary front sits to the south of the area with increased cloud coverage and a few thunderstorms across southern New England. Low-mid level cloud cover has decreased the chances of valley fog, however, with little surface flow, as any high clouds move to the northeast, some fog is still possible leading up to sunrise. A surface trough across the Great Lakes, along with a persistent ridge across the Southeast will induce decent surface convergence across our area. Surface forcing along a boundary in eastern Ontario will help pull the southern New England stationary front back into southern Vermont by sunrise morning. By about noontime, with little cap to delay convection, mountain driven showers and thunderstorms along the Green Mountains should find little resistance in development. Eastern Vermont should remain in the mid 70s while the Champlain Valley and areas west should warm into the upper 70s to low 80s. As these showers develop along the spine of the Greens, a differential heating boundary along with any lake breeze interactions will help spur additional convection across northern New York. Aided by the surface trough, CAPE values will range between 1500-2000 J/kg with shear between 20-30 kts. It is worthy of noting, that along the Champlain Valley, modeled soundings in the NAM3K, and to an extent the HRRR, do note some modest low-level shear in the hodographs. Weak surface flow and generally high-base storms will make any threats from the marginally curved hodographs quite low, however. Lastly, in the presence of a sharp theta E ridge, Pwats will be around 1.5" which continues the theme of a marginal risk outlook for excessive rainfall today. Any storms that develop in the later portion of the afternoon could have the potential to lead to localized flash flooding from torrential downpours and gusty winds. Current 3 and 1 hour flash flood guidance are about 2.3" and 1.6", respectively. Of concern is that models show some potential for training cells across the Champlain Valley and the Northeast Kingdom. Overall, ingredients are only marginally conducive for severe weather and flash flooding, but we will be watching it closely. By Thursday evening, the majority of the showers and storms should dissipate, with some lingering showers hinted at by the HREF in the southern Champlain Valley and Northeast Kingdom as the base of the upper-level trough passes overhead. While by definition a cold front, little cooling will take place Thursday night, as warm advection will kick in. Lows Thursday night will be in the low to mid 60s. On Friday, the warming and building humidity will continue. Most of the day should be fairly quiet. However, by the late afternoon a weak boundary may provide enough lift to generate some isolated showers as it tracks from north to south. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 AM EDT Thursday...Warm advection will continue Friday night with another seasonably warm overnight. Lows will only fall into the low to mid 60s as humidity continues to build. Saturday should be a clear day with only a few diurnally driven fair weather cumulus clouds. However, the weekends heat and humidity will begin to peak by Saturday afternoon. Modeled 925mb temperatures are around +24C supporting surface highs in the low 90s. Low surface flow, from being centered on a ridge axis, will provide little relief in the way of a breeze making the heat feel stagnant. Dewpoints will also be in the mid 60s making the air feel quite muggy. This combines to lead heat index values into the low to mid 90s with increasing trends towards heat advisory criteria. Remember to drink plenty of water, reduce outdoor exposure, and check on neighbors and the elderly. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 225 AM EDT Thursday...Upper level ridging persists over the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday morning with warm and dry conditions expected. By Sunday afternoon a slow moving mid/upper level trough and weak surface cold front begin to approach from the west with increasing southwesterly flow providing the only day in the forecast period with any hint of wind. That`ll be a good thing because 925mb temps up to +24C support another day of high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Models appear to be in better agreement with the timing of the trough/front passage, slowly working through the region Sunday night through Monday. Likely to see showers and thunderstorms through this period, but coverage is uncertain as is normal this far out. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure build back in for Tuesday and Wednesday with hot and humid conditions returning with highs back into the mid 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the overnight hours with the exception of periods of MVFR at KEFK and IFR at KMSS/KMPV. Low confidence of IFR at this time at KMPV due to cloud cover, but higher confidence at KMSS as skies will clear within the next couple of hours. Any fog/mist will burn off after 12Z where the focus turns to shower and thunderstorm development after 15Z. Scattered convection is likely through 22-00Z but confidence of a storm hitting a terminal is low at this time. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are likely within a thunderstorm. Calms winds overnight will trend to light SSE at 8kts or less through the day. Outlook... Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Danzig NEAR TERM...Danzig SHORT TERM...Danzig LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Lahiff