186
FXUS61 KBTV 100625
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
225 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A relatively quiet day with a few showers along mountain ridges
today will give way to more numerous showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday. The potential for hit or miss rain will decrease heading
into the weekend, a warming trend will begin. Hotter conditions will
peak on Sunday ahead of a weak cold front, which will bring
conditions a little closer to normal after rounds of showers and
storms. Then a return to climatological afternoon pop up activity
will resume with seasonably warm conditions expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 AM EDT Thursday...A stationary front sits to the
south of the area with increased cloud coverage and a few
thunderstorms across southern New England. Low-mid level cloud
cover has decreased the chances of valley fog, however, with
little surface flow, as any high clouds move to the northeast,
some fog is still possible leading up to sunrise. A surface
trough across the Great Lakes, along with a persistent ridge
across the Southeast will induce decent surface convergence
across our area. Surface forcing along a boundary in eastern
Ontario will help pull the southern New England stationary front
back into southern Vermont by sunrise morning. By about
noontime, with little cap to delay convection, mountain driven
showers and thunderstorms along the Green Mountains should find
little resistance in development. Eastern Vermont should remain
in the mid 70s while the Champlain Valley and areas west should
warm into the upper 70s to low 80s. As these showers develop
along the spine of the Greens, a differential heating boundary
along with any lake breeze interactions will help spur
additional convection across northern New York. Aided by the
surface trough, CAPE values will range between 1500-2000 J/kg
with shear between 20-30 kts. It is worthy of noting, that along
the Champlain Valley, modeled soundings in the NAM3K, and to an
extent the HRRR, do note some modest low-level shear in the
hodographs. Weak surface flow and generally high-base storms
will make any threats from the marginally curved hodographs
quite low, however. Lastly, in the presence of a sharp theta E
ridge, Pwats will be around 1.5" which continues the theme of a
marginal risk outlook for excessive rainfall today. Any storms
that develop in the later portion of the afternoon could have
the potential to lead to localized flash flooding from
torrential downpours and gusty winds. Current 3 and 1 hour flash
flood guidance are about 2.3" and 1.6", respectively. Of
concern is that models show some potential for training cells
across the Champlain Valley and the Northeast Kingdom. Overall,
ingredients are only marginally conducive for severe weather and
flash flooding, but we will be watching it closely.

By Thursday evening, the majority of the showers and storms
should dissipate, with some lingering showers hinted at by the
HREF in the southern Champlain Valley and Northeast Kingdom as
the base of the upper-level trough passes overhead. While by
definition a cold front, little cooling will take place Thursday
night, as warm advection will kick in. Lows Thursday night will
be in the low to mid 60s.

On Friday, the warming and building humidity will continue. Most
of the day should be fairly quiet. However, by the late
afternoon a weak boundary may provide enough lift to generate
some isolated showers as it tracks from north to south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 AM EDT Thursday...Warm advection will continue Friday
night with another seasonably warm overnight. Lows will only
fall into the low to mid 60s as humidity continues to build.
Saturday should be a clear day with only a few diurnally driven
fair weather cumulus clouds. However, the weekends heat and
humidity will begin to peak by Saturday afternoon. Modeled 925mb
temperatures are around +24C supporting surface highs in the
low 90s. Low surface flow, from being centered on a ridge axis,
will provide little relief in the way of a breeze making the
heat feel stagnant. Dewpoints will also be in the mid 60s making
the air feel quite muggy. This combines to lead heat index
values into the low to mid 90s with increasing trends towards
heat advisory criteria. Remember to drink plenty of water,
reduce outdoor exposure, and check on neighbors and the elderly.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 AM EDT Thursday...Upper level ridging persists over
the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday morning with warm
and dry conditions expected. By Sunday afternoon a slow moving
mid/upper level trough and weak surface cold front begin to
approach from the west with increasing southwesterly flow
providing the only day in the forecast period with any hint of
wind. That`ll be a good thing because 925mb temps up to +24C
support another day of high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Models appear to be in better agreement with the timing of the
trough/front passage, slowly working through the region Sunday
night through Monday. Likely to see showers and thunderstorms
through this period, but coverage is uncertain as is normal this
far out. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure build
back in for Tuesday and Wednesday with hot and humid conditions
returning with highs back into the mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the
overnight hours with the exception of periods of MVFR at KEFK
and IFR at KMSS/KMPV. Low confidence of IFR at this time at KMPV
due to cloud cover, but higher confidence at KMSS as skies will
clear within the next couple of hours. Any fog/mist will burn
off after 12Z where the focus turns to shower and thunderstorm
development after 15Z. Scattered convection is likely through
22-00Z but confidence of a storm hitting a terminal is low at
this time. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are likely within a
thunderstorm. Calms winds overnight will trend to light SSE at
8kts or less through the day.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Lahiff