795
FXUS61 KBTV 232338
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
638 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A breezy, upslope pattern will continue throughout the weekend,
supporting several inches of wet mountain snow through the weekend
in the northern Greens and blustery conditions. Additional
precipitation will return as mainly rain Monday night into Tuesday,
with more uncertain chances towards late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 608 PM EST Saturday... Light showers continue across the
Northeast Kingdom and westerly upslope areas, whether they are
visible on radar or not. A more organized area of precipitation
is moving into northern New York from the west associated with
a weak shortwave. It will pass through the region tonight and
intensify slightly. Snow levels generally range between 1,000
to 2,000 feet, with the lowest levels in the Northeast Kingdom
and highest levels in southern Vermont. These will hold
relatively steady for a few hours before dropping later tonight
behind that shortwave. Decreased the winds a little to reflect
observations but they will pick up later tonight with cold air
advection behind the shortwave.

Previous Discussion...Surface low pressure centered over the
Canadian Maritimes will continue to bring unsettled weather to the
region this weekend as we remain under cyclonic flow. Throughout the
afternoon, precipitation has decreased in areal coverage and has
become more terrain focused. A shortwave will pass through the region
tonight, reinvigorating shower chances this evening, especially in
the favored upslope areas. Temperatures tonight will be seasonable,
in the 20s and 30s. The strong pressure gradient will allow for
gusty winds to continue throughout the night, especially on Lake
Champlain.

Tomorrow the region will continue to be under northwest flow and a
strong pressure gradient, continuing to bring upslope showers and
blustery conditions. Precipitation will largely be limited to the
northern Greens tomorrow, with strong westerly flow, so locations
like Jay Peak should see several inches of snowfall. Temperatures
tomorrow will be on the cool side, with highs in the 30sw to low
40s, but with strong winds it would feel more like 30s, and even the
teens across the higher terrain. By Sunday night showers will begin
to wind down as a brief period of surface high pressure begins to
build into the region. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid
to upper 20s, with some cooler spots across the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 346 PM EST Saturday...Monday will be characterized by partly
cloudy skies increasing to cloudy through the day with high
temperatures ranging from the mid/upper 30s (coldest in northeastern
Vermont) to low mid 40s(warmest in southern Vermont). Breezes will
be light with high pressure cresting and beginning to exit.
Overnight, temperatures should cool initially with northeastern
Vermont radiating more efficiently due to less cloud cover than the
rest of the North Country. This cooling will have implications as a
system moves into the Great Lakes region with a frontal boundary
pushing into the region. Sub-freezing surface temperatures in the
Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont combined with a warming profile
aloft will promote a period of freezing rain before profiles warm
enough to allow enough sensible heat transfer to warm surface
temperatures above freezing. Up to a tenth of an inch of ice is
possible overnight, but more could occur in northeastern Vermont
should a northerly cold wedge form replenishing cold air. Elsewhere,
rain is expected with some snow possible for highest peaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 346 PM EST Saturday...The system continues to push through
Tuesday with surface temperatures rising to preclude freezing rain.
Total QPF looks to range 0.2-0.5", so not as much as recent
rainfall, but enough to continue to provide beneficial wetting of
soils. A breezy northwesterly flow pattern develops behind the front
resulting in cooling late Tuesday and continue upslope precipitation
chances. Could see snow levels drop to near Lake Champlain level
Tuesday night with a transition to snow for most elevations. QPF
will be lower, so accumulating snow chances will be highest for
higher elevations with little expected below 1000ft given wet
surface conditions.

The region is favored to remain under the influence of the upper low
with winds promoting some lake enhanced showers off of Lake Ontario
Wednesday into Thursday. Most of these showers will stay south of
the Adirondacks, but could see some extending eastward into portions
of the southern Adirondacks. Elsewhere, the upslope pattern will
weaken by Wednesday night as relative high pressure moves through.
More certain will be cooler temperatures with highs generally in the
30s and lows in the 20s. The next system is favored to approach
towards the end of the week. However, models are split on the
surface track lending to uncertainty in the system`s character.
Consensus favors a southerly track keeping the North Country on the
colder side Friday with potential for snow while some single runs
show a westward track with potential for rain, snow, and mixed
precipitation. Either way, this system could impact post holiday
travel plans.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...A mix of MVFR and IFR will prevail across
the region over the next 24 hours, along with light rain and
snow showers. IFR most likely at KSLK/KMPV/KEFK, mainly due to
ceilings, though IFR visibility possible in snow showers at KSLK
and possibly KEFK, especially 02z-14z Sun. Other terminals to
remain MVFR with ceilings 18-2800 ft, and scattered rain showers
overnight. Rain/snow showers gradually taper to an end after 12z
Sun, lingering longest at KEFK. Ceilings will gradually lift as
well, with MVFR/VFR by 21z at all terminals. North/northwest
winds will continue to occasionally gust to 20 kt through 02z,
but expect gustiness to become more regular overnight and
persist through Sunday morning. LLWS will be possible overnight
as well, mainly at KRUT/KMPV/KEFK.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance FZRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Definite FZRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thanksgiving Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds on Lake Champlain have calmed down a bit this evening,
with gusts generally ranging in the 10-20 KT range. They will
pick back up later tonight and into the day tomorrow. Gusts
should reach the 25 to 30 KT range. Wind directions will switch
from northerly to more northwesterly later tonight. Wave
heights will be 2 to 4 feet tomorrow before becoming much
smaller tomorrow night.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Hastings/Kremer
MARINE...WFO BTV