739
FXUS61 KBTV 040518
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY
118 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface and upper level ridges will remain over our area
through Wednesday. Warm and dry weather will continue during
this time with high temperatures reaching 90 in some locations
Wednesday afternoon. Thin veil of smoke is visible in the upper
levels of the atmosphere this afternoon. A cold front approaches
our area on Thursday and will bring our next chance for showers
and thunderstorms during the afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...Southerly winds will start to advect
higher dewpoints into our region overnight, which will lead to
a warmer night than the past few. Areas east of the Greens may
radiate out a bit better than the rest of the area as they still
have some dewpoint readings below 40 degrees. Minimum
temperatures will range from the upper 40s to around 60 degrees.
Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week as high
temperatures reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Warmest
temperatures will be in Champlain and Connecticut R valley, and
especially downslope of the Adirondacks on the western side of
the Lake as we have some southwesterly downslope flow. Downslope
winds will also mix down some drier air helping to keep
humidity to reasonable levels. Some haze/filtered sunshine is
expected again as Canadian wildfire smoke impacts the area. As
the gradient sharpens on Wed afternoon, localized
south/southwest surface winds of 15 to 25 mph are possible in
the south to north aligned valleys. Wednesday night will be the
end of the quiet weather for a bit, and it will be a mild
overnight with minimum temperatures in the upper 50s to upper
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...Thursday continues to look like a
fairly active day with moist southerly flow ahead of an
approaching cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
spread across the area, especially in the afternoon. Along with
the surface trough, some shortwave energy will also pass
through upper level flow, a moderately unstable surface with
some models indicating CAPE values over 1500 J/kg, as well as
deep layer shear. SPC continues to keep our region in Marginal
risk for Thu, so storms will likely need to be monitored for
potential to develop strong to severe cells. With unidirectional
flow in place, mainly gusty winds and small hail expected with
any stronger storms that manage to develop. Maximum temperatures
Thursday afternoon will reach the lower 80s in Northern New
York with upper 80s to around 90 across Vermont. Any convection
that develops should wane after sunset with loss of daytime
heating and also surface based instability. Areas of patchy fog
will be possible Thursday night, especially in areas that have
heavy rain from thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Minimum
temperatures on Thursday night will dip into the mid 50s in the
Dacks, and 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 430 PM EDT Tuesday...A secondary cold front will cross
the region on Friday ushering in cooler air. Front that crossed
the area on Thursday will remain draped to our south, in a
nearly stationary state. There`s potential for some heavy rain
somewhere in the northeast over the weekend, but not much model
consistency on where this area will be. Temperatures will trend
cooler headed into the weekend as we will likely be on the
cooler side of stalled frontal boundary. Upper level trough
should push east of the region Saturday night, bringing drier
weather back to the region for Sunday into the beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z Thursday...GOES-19 shows high thin cirrus clouds are
moving across our taf sites early this morning with VFR
conditions prevailing. High confidence of VFR for all 7 taf
sites for the next 12 to 24 hours. South winds 4 to 8 knots will
become south to southwest at 10 to 15 knots with localized gusts
20 to 25 knots after 15z. These winds will continue through
late afternoon before decreasing toward sunset at 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Taber