019
FXUS61 KBTV 111740
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
140 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 311 AM EDT Friday...

No changes to the current forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 311 AM EDT Friday...

1. Dry, clear, and seasonably cool weather will lead to
pleasant, fall-like, conditions today and most of tomorrow. Light
shower chances will approach southern Vermont late Saturday, with a
weak frontal passage across the north and central portions of the
area Sunday.

2. Patchy frost possible on Tuesday morning, followed by warmer
and unsettled weather for mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 311 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A picture perfect start the weekend looks to be in store
beginning today through Saturday. Temperatures will trend slightly
below seasonable levels today as northwest flow advects cooler air
from Canada. Highs will be in the mid 60s to near 70 with clear
skies. A few light breezes near the International Border, and
Champlain Valley, to 10-15 MPH could bring a slight bite to the air
Friday afternoon. Clear skies will persist through tonight with
areawide strong radiational cooling. Temperatures will cool into the
low to mid 40s for most locations, and near 50 for areas around Lake
Champlain. Raw guidance denotes low to mid 30s for areas in the
heart of the Adirondacks. Tonight looks like the better night for
patchy valley fog in the favored river valleys of Vermont and
northern New York. Though it will not be widespread fog with it
being 2 days detached from rain. Nonetheless, areas near Montpelier,
the lamoille Valley, CT river, and sheltered areas of the
Adirondacks have a good chance for patchy fog. Saturday looks to be
a repeat of Friday with slightly warmer highs into the mid to upper
40s with mostly clear skies. Gusty channeled winds in the Champlain
Valley, and mountain summit winds, will be possible by Saturday
afternoon with winds turning more southerly, hence our warmer
temperature advection. Winds could gusts up to 25 MPH will be
possible, with locally higher on Lake Champlain itself. A Lake Wind
Advisory may be needed during the day Saturday through Saturday
evening.

Saturday looks to remain dry up until the late evening. A weak
shortwave looks to pass just to our south, brining some light shower
chances to southern Vermont, mainly along or south of US-4. Showers
will be confined to the overnight hours, shifting east by sunrise.
Overnight lows Saturday will be mild as a result into the upper 50s
to low 60s. Clouds associated with the showers will build across the
region keeping the area socked in with cloud cover on Sunday. A
frontal passage will bring additional shower chances to the central
and northern portions of the areas. Showers will be scattery and
broken in nature. Model soundings do show the potential for some
isolated rumbles of thunder, mainly across northern New York, but
any storms will be weak with limited instability, and lagging
dynamics. Temperatures will return to seasonably cool level in the
60s by Monday, with drying conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A fast/progressive flow aloft prevails acrs the northern
CONUS for next week as our cwa remains in the battle ground btwn
very warm/moist airmass over the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys and much
cooler/drier air to the north over central Canada. As boundary
sharpens acrs the Mid Atlantic/NE CONUS for mid to late next week,
potential for widespread precipitation increases for our region.
Still a large spread in potential solutions from the globe guidance
and associated ensemble members on placement and timing of heaviest
precip, given fast flow aloft and some agreement of boundary
paralleling the mid/upper lvl winds.

Progged 1025mb high pres directly overhead on Tues morning wl
produce light winds and clear skies with valley fog and pockets of
patchy frost possible. Lows range from near freezing SLK/NEK to
upper 40s near Lake Champlain. First weak boundary and associated
s/w energy drops acrs our cwa late Tues into Weds with ribbon of
enhanced mid lvl moisture, but limited instability. Expect a brief
period of rain showers with latest WPC still indicating chc-likely
(40 to 70%) pops. Also, progged 850mb winds of 30 to 40 knots are
expected acrs our cwa ahead of approaching boundary on Tues, so
anticipated breezy south to southwest winds, especially
central/northern CPV and higher trrn of dacks/northern Greens. Temps
wl warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s per latest WPC fcst. Temps wl
be highly depend upon what side of the boundary our cwa wl be on for
mid to late week, along with areas of clouds/precip. WPC has highs
in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows mid 40s to mid 50s for Weds
thru Friday, which looks reasonable attm.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail at our taf
sites through around 06Z Saturday as high pressure and dry air
continue to build across our region. Northwest winds 4 to 8
knots with localized gusts at MPV of 12 to 18 knots. Overnight
the aviation challenge becomes timing and areal coverage of fog
and associated LIFR/VLIFR. Highest probability (80-90%) of IFR
or lower conditions is at SLK/MPV with likely (55-65%) at EFK
and chance (30-40%) at BTV/RUT and MSS. Have used prevailing
group at SLK/MPV for fog, tempo at EFK and just vcfg at RUT/BTV
for now, as confidence is too low to mention IFR attm with light
and variable winds. VFR conditions return 12-13Z with light
surface flow out of the south developing; PBG could see some
gusts 15-20kts with winds coming from off of Lake Champlain.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Taber/Danzig
AVIATION...Boyd/Taber