242
FXUS61 KBTV 052338
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
638 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will be quickly arriving on Thursday
morning, bringing widespread wintry precipitation including
light to moderate snow accumulations and a glaze of ice. Snow
squalls are possible Friday morning. Unsettled conditions return
over the weekend with increasing chances for snow Saturday
night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 550 PM EST Wednesday...A 1030mb high pres centered near
Montreal is providing our cwa with clear skies and light winds
this evening, which has resulted in temps dropping sharply.
Canaan VT already -2F, with many areas acrs central/northern VT,
including the NEK near 0F. Have lowered the hourly temps to
match crnt trends and also lowered low temps acrs the
NEK/eastern VT into the -10F to -15F with other areas btwn -5F
and 5F. Temps should start to warm after midnight as clouds and
southerly winds develop acrs our cwa. Snow arrives from
southwest to northeast btwn 13z and 16z on Thursday.

Previous discussion below:
Surface high pressure cresting overhead this afternoon will
slowly slide eastward overnight. Temperatures will drop sharply
following sunset under mostly clear skies and with light flow.
Minimum temperatures will be reached early in the overnight, and
will range through the single digits above and below zero.
Clouds will increase from the south overnight, and light snow
will move into the region around 7 AM Thursday morning. This
will be a quick moving system, but will see some heavy snow at
times on Thursday mainly from 15z to 19z. Then a dry slot will
lift into our area, and we`ll lose the cloud ice and saturation
in the dgz. This will lead to a transition to some freezing
drizzle. Before the snow ends, snowfall totals will range from
about two to four inches, locally higher amounts possible on
eastern slopes of the Greens with a little boost from upslope
flow. Ice accumulations should be light, generally a glace to a
few hundredths of an inch. Isolated spots could have up to a
tenth of an inch of ice. Looks like the precipitation will be
drizzly, but could still see some ice accumulations. Trickiest
travel time will be Thursday evening commute. During the
overnight period, snow will become more showery and we will have
snow squalls possible heading into Friday morning associated
with a reinforcing cold front crossing the area. Current model
data shows squall potential from about 06z in northern New York,
spreading across Vermont by about 12z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 252 PM EST Wednesday...Westerly cyclonic flow develops
behind the cold front early Friday morning and will bring
upslope snow showers during the day on Friday and into Friday
night. Flow looks to be unblocked during this period so the
highest snowfall will likely be along or east of the summits.
The bottom 5,000 feet of the atmosphere will be saturated and
that will be the location of the DGZ, so it should be enough
moisture to produce the snow. Since the moisture will not be
overly deep, rates should be on the lighter side, but the
consistent snow showers will be able to at least produce light
snow accumulations. Winds will also be quite gusty, with deep
mixing up to around 800 mb and with winds at the top of the
mixed layer peaking at 50-60 KTs, gusts up to 40 mph or higher
are possible in some areas. These winds will likely be most
pronounced in the downslope areas of the Greens and Adirondacks.
Friday will have another non-diurnal trend. Temperatures will
hold steady in the 20s during the day before falling back into
the teens overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 252 PM EST Wednesday...A more active pattern continues
through the weekend and next week, and cold air looks to mostly
stay in place. Ridging briefly builds in for the day on
Saturday, and should bring mostly dry weather. A few lingering
snow showers may continue into the morning, but they should be
light enough to not cause much accumulation. Some sun will be
able to break out before high clouds spread in from the west out
ahead of another storm. This event looks to be all snow, with a
storm track well to the south. NBM precipitation type
probabilities are above 90 percent for snow for even the most
southern areas. Probabilities of more than 6 inches of snow are
between 20-40 percent for far northern New York and up to 60-80
percent for much of southern and central Vermont. While
confidence is high on the precipitation type being all snow, it
is less high on the amounts due to uncertainty in the exact
storm track. Ridging builds back in for the beginning of the
work week, before another low makes a run at the region for mid
week. While confidence is relatively high that precipitation
with that would be snow, the bigger question looks to be whether
it stays too far to the south for much precipitation to fall.
Storm three looks to make a run at the region for Friday.
Overall, there will be a change from the orographic dominated
snowfall in much of January to the more synoptic dominated
snowfall upcoming.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail for all
sites through the most of the TAF period before snow showers
move in beyond 14Z. Winds tonight will be calm across all sites
with occasional light SE drainage flow at BTV/RUT.

Snow will begin to move into the area from the southwest
beginning at SLK at 14Z, MSS/RUT at 1430Z, BTV/PBG/MPV by 1530Z,
and EFK by 1630Z. Snow will drop ceilings to MVFR and
visibilities will quickly deteriorate to IFR at the onset of
the precipitation. Winds will become south/southeasterly 5-10
knots with gusts increasing to 10-20 knots once the snow begins.
LLWS is also expected once precipitation begins at 14Z. Periods
of LIFR visibilities and IFR ceilings are likely between 16-20Z
as more moderate to heavy snow passes through. Snow will taper
off to freezing drizzle by 20Z with mainly MVFR ceilings at
BTV/PBG/MSS/RUT, and IFR ceilings from continued low-level
moisture at SLK/MPV/EFK. Freezing drizzle looks to taper off by
23Z for most sites, with some lingering drizzle at
SLK/MPV/MSS/EFK.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Slight chance FZDZ.
Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Definite SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for
     VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Taber
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Danzig