167
FXUS61 KBTV 081759
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
159 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Passing showers are expected this afternoon and evening,
especially across the Champlain Valley. Sharply colder air is
expected, particularly Thursday afternoon into Friday morning
where a few daily record lows may be tied or broken. Conditions
will gradually warm up again over the weekend. The next work
week will begin with increasing clouds, but whether or not we
receive widespread rain will depend on how far north a coastal
system tracks. Stay tuned for updates on whether or not we will
receive more beneficial rains and perhaps some breezy east winds
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 148 PM EDT Wednesday...A subtle low-level trough is shifting
south. At the southwest corner, it has interacted with unstable
lake conditions over Lake Ontario to produce a meso-low. It`s
pretty cool on satellite, and you should check it out. This
trough will bring showers and a reinforcing push of cold air.
We`re starting to see activity cross the St. Lawrence River.
Some convergence over Lake Champlain and lake instability of our
own should allow activity to blossom as it reaches the Champlain
Valley with more isolated coverage elsewhere. Temperatures in
the mid 50s to lower 60s will becomes mid 20s to mid 30s behind
cold advection. The challenging aspect of this is frost
potential. We will have the temperatures for it, but if we
maintain winds, then frost will not form. At the very least,
tender plants and outdoor pipes may not like the freezing
conditions. Just in case, frost advisories and freeze warnings
are in effect. If there are lingering showers associated with
the trough overnight, a few flakes of snow are not impossible at
summit level.

Thursday will be rather chilly with the cold air mass overhead. Any
lingering clouds will scatter out as steady 5 to 15 mph
northwesterly flow continues. High temperatures may fail to climb
over 50 in parts of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom, and the
broader valleys will reach at least the mid 50s. Strong surface high
pressure will build, and this will set the stage for efficient
radiational cooling. Frost/freeze will be a slam dunk. Excepting
areas surrounding Lake Champlain, everyone should fall below
freezing, and KSLK should reach the teens. A few sites may approach
daily record lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 148 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will move away Friday,
which will allow temperatures to get closer to normal again with mid
50s to lower 60s. Under mostly sunny skies, Friday will typify a
pleasant October day. Temperatures will become cool again Friday
night into Saturday morning. Some frost/freeze is likely again. The
broad valleys will maintain a light south wind keeping temperatures
in the lower 40s, but sheltered bowls within the Adirondacks and
east of the Green mountains will likely take another dive well below
freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 148 PM EDT Wednesday...The only noteworthy weather going on this
period is conditional on the track of an expected Nor`Easter to our
south over the weekend. Trends in the data continue to show a slight
increase in probability of some impacts, most notably locally strong
easterly winds in the southern/central Greens, late Sunday into
Monday in Vermont and northern New York. Probabilities of wind gusts
reaching 40 MPH Sunday night off of the ENS in southeastern Windsor
County are currently above 30%, and even the grand ensemble mean 850
millibar winds are about 30 knots despite large spread in storm
tracks. Taking a look at the latest ensemble guidance, low tracks
show quite a bit of spread, although they tend to be clustered south
of the area consistent with higher PoPs (peaking near 30%) in
southern portions of Vermont, tapering off to 15-20% in our northern
counties. Otherwise, large scale ridging and dry weather is expected
into early next week with near to above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions through the
period. Some temporary MVFR ceilings are possible with a brief
period of BKN to OVC favored at BTV and possibly at PBG/MPV
roughly 21Z to 02Z, as a subtle secondary front and some showers
bubble up before much drier air enters the airspace.
Thereafter, clouds will scatter effectively with mainly SKC by
06Z with strong northwesterly flow, resulting in gusts overnight
remaining in the 15-25 knot range briefly before mixing
decreases. Following sunrise, gusts will be most favored at
RUT/EFK/MPV as high pressure building in from the west leads to
decreasing gradients with time.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Areas frost.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds over Lake Champlain are currently about 10 to 20 knots
sustained. There is an occasional gust or observed wind speed
approaching 25 knots. North winds funneling through the valley
are expected to continue, with low level flow increasing this
afternoon again. Faster winds are thus expected by this
afternoon and evening. The strongest winds will be from the
broad waters down to the southern waters of Lake Champlain at 20
to 30 knots. Waves will build from 2 to 4 feet up to 3 to 5 feet
over southern waters in the vicinity of Diamond Island.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Strong radiational cooling is expected Thursday night into
Friday morning. The follow will approach daily records.

Record Low Temperatures:

October 10:
KMPV: 24/1986 (Forecast value: 26)
KSLK: 18/1934 (Forecast value: 17)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
     VTZ006-008-010-011-019-020.
     Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     VTZ002-005-006-008>011-016>021.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
     VTZ016>018.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ026-027-087.
     Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     NYZ026>028-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
MARINE...BTV
CLIMATE...BTV