502
FXUS61 KBTV 212257
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
657 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent dry conditions will continue with high pressure over
the North Country resulting in a warming trend through
Saturday. A cold front will move into the region Sunday bring
widespread rainfall and chances of thunderstorms. Showers
chances are expected to linger into next week with a return to
cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 204 PM EDT Thursday...High pressure will remain will
dictate weather conditions through Saturday and will be
characterized by warming temperature trends and patchy morning
fog. Temperatures will warm from mid/upper 70s this afternoon
to low/mid 80s Friday and Saturday while lows edge warmer from
the low/mid 40s to upper 40s and upper 50s. A few spots could
reach the upper 80s Saturday afternoon, especially if dew points
end up being drier than currently projected (not too uncommon
given general model biases under persistent ridges). Southerly
flow and clouds will begin increasing late Saturday ahead of the
next system that will move through the North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 204 PM EDT Thursday...Precipitation chances increase
Saturday night with current projections favoring a cold front
to begin moving towards the St Lawrence Valley. Forcing along
the prefrontal trough may be sufficient to allow for
thunderstorms despite its nocturnal approach with scattered
coverage possible due to 250-500J/kg of CAPE coincident with
forcing late Saturday evening. 700mb flow is strongly favored
to be parallel to the front with, so could see multiple rounds
of showers. However, west-to-east progression and recent dry
conditions will mitigate any early system flooding concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 204 PM EDT Thursday...A deep upper level trough gradually
builds into the region for the start of next week, pushing through a
series of fronts. These look to contain broken lines of showers with
the potential for a few thunderstorms, though the severe threat is
low at this point. Fast enough storm motion should also keep the
flood threat low, despite multiple rounds of precipitation. The one
concern would be if the front slows down over the region due to a
surface low developing to the east, but this looks unlikely. GEFS,
EPS and CAN probabilities of an inch or more of rain range up to
around 33 percent, though the actual probabilities may be slightly
higher due to the convective elements that are tougher to resolve.
Temperatures will drop below average during this period, especially
with the highs due to the clouds and showers. Winds of Sunday will
be relatively strong, especially in the Champlain valley where there
will be channeled southerly flow. Gusts look to reach between 20-25
mph, though they will likely be higher on Lake Champlain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions look to prevail over the
next 24 hours with the only exception being the potential for
patchy valley fog under clear skies and calm to light variable
winds. Most likely site for visibility restrictions will be MPV
around 09Z-13Z, which is a reduced time frame from the IFR that
was observed last night as we have less moisture to work with
for tonight. Other potential fog spots are MSS, SLK, and EFK,
though confidence is low for conditions below VFR because as
stated, surface moisture will be limited. Winds will increase
tomorrow out of the northwest, but no higher than 4-7 knots.


Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Storm