753
FXUS61 KBTV 310631
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
231 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 231 AM EDT Friday...

Rainfall this weekend has been slowed down by about 12 to 18 hours
as a more amplified upper level trough will delay the better forcing
and moisture. Sunday is now looking mostly dry for much of the North
Country and northern New York.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 231 AM EDT Friday...

1. Seasonal weather expected today and Saturday.

2. Widespread rainfall expected late Sunday and Monday.

3. Increasing heat and humidity for the August 4th thru 6th
period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 231 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A foggy start is expected across the region this morning
as saturated soils, light winds, and clear skies help promote for
formation. With sunrise shortly after 5:30 AM, it`s likely most fog
will dissipate prior to the morning commute. Still, some patchy
dense fog in sheltered valleys and river valleys could continue
through 9 AM. Afterwards, we`ve got some beautiful weather on tap as
surface high pressure noses in from the west. Mostly clear skies
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected both today and
Saturday with an isolated shower or two across the higher peaks of
the Adirondacks. Limited mid-level steering flow will keep the
showers anchored across the higher terrain and will be short-lived
as increasing subsidence will kill any convection that tries to
develop. Northwest winds less than 10 mph will be seen today with
winds backing to the south at 5 to 15 mph on Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Quite a bit has changed in the last 24 hours as
deterministic guidance is struggling to understand the evolution of
a deepening upper level trough/low and short-wave energy. The latest
trends show a strengthening upper level trough that ultimately closes
off as shortwave energy rounds the base of the upper level trough
and increases vorticity. This ultimately leads to a higher amplitude
longwave trough which slows down the progression of both the deep
moisture and better frontal dynamics. The general thinking is that
most of Sunday is dry; albeit a bit humid as dewpoints start
approaching 70 degrees. Rainfall is now expected to move in Sunday
night from west to east and continue well into Monday as a surface
low develops across western New York and quickly move north towards
Montreal. A plume of 1.7" to 1.9" PWATs is still expected to advect
northward across New England during this timeframe which should
support efficient rain processes. The general thinking of 0.5 to 1.5
inches of rainfall still seems likely and the flood threat seems
more contingent on rainfall rates vs actual rainfall amounts.
Looking at the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, there are still about 10-20
percent of members showing over 2 inches of rainfall so there are
still some concerns to watch out for as we head into early next
week. The picture should become more clear tomorrow as we get better
upper air sampling which should help the models begin locking in on
a solution vs being so volatile from run-to-run.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A building low-mid level ridge in the wake of the
northern stream shortwave trough departing the area to the east will
yield warming temperatures Tuesday (8/4) through Thursday (8/6) next
week. GEFS 850mb mean temperatures support valley high temperatures
in the lower 80s for Tuesday, and then in the upper 80s for
Wednesday and Thursday. With increasing humidity through the period,
the best chance of thunderstorms will likely be Thursday, with PoPs
40-50% for Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, no significant weather is
currently anticipated during the Days 4-7 forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Areas of fog producing LIFR conditions is
the primary aviation weather concern thru 12Z this morning. All
TAF locations except PBG and BTV should see prolonged fog
during the pre-dawn hours along with light winds. After 12-13z,
FG will dissipate across the area and trend towards SCT-BKN
cumulus around 3500-5000 ft agl. Winds will become west-
northwest to northwest at 4-8 kts through the daylight hours
and become light and variable again tonight. Fog should be less
widespread for Friday night, but still possible at MPV/SLK
06-12Z Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Clay/Banacos
AVIATION...Banacos