350
FXUS61 KBTV 240740
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
340 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerous heat and humidity will continue through this evening
and heat headlines remain in effect for much of our forecast
area through 8 PM tonight. A cold front will slide southward
tonight, bringing some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms as well as a return to more seasonable
temperatures for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...Another dangerously hot day is on
tap, though temperatures will be just a few degrees cooler than
yesterday`s in most locations. An Extreme Heat Warning remains
in effect until 8 PM this evening in the Champlain Valley, where
heat indices will peak around 106 between noon and 4 PM today.
In addition, a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM today
for the Saint Lawrence Valley and much of Vermont for heat
indices up to 102. After yesterday`s record high temperatures
and little cooling overnight, the multiple days of heat without
relief support an NWS Heat Risk level of Major (level 3 of 4)
across almost the entire region. This means that this level of
heat affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration, so please take necessary precautions today to stay
cool.

A cold front will drop southward this evening, sparking some
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms amid a highly
unstable atmosphere. Notable DCAPE values of over 1000 J/kg are
progged during the day today, lowering to the 700 to 1000 J/kg
range going into the evening as depth of mid-layer moisture
increases. These values are more than sufficient to support
strong downdrafts, and indicate the primary hazard associated
with today`s storms will be damaging wind gusts. Surface to 6 km
shear today in our forecast area will generally be between 30
to 40 knots, which would support some organized multicells,
consistent with modeled radar output from the 00Z suite of the
higher resolution models. Higher wet bulb zero level heights
(over 12,000 ft AGL) are unsupportive of large hail reaching the
ground today. The main limiter on the areal coverage of showers
and thunderstorms today will be a deep dry layer between 600
and 300 mb, which will act to inhibit coverage of storms
becoming widespread, despite ample instability. The Storm
Prediction Center has maintained a Marginal severe weather
threat for today for our entire forecast area, or a level 1 out
of 5.

After the front clears the area, a return towards slightly more
seasonable conditions can be expected for Wednesday. Highs will
be in the low to mid 80s, expect locally higher in the
Connecticut River Valley. In addition, expect a decrease in
mugginess as dewpoints drop into the 50s Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...A quiet period of weather with near normal
high and low temps anticipated acrs our fa. Prevailing northerly
winds wl push much cooler and drier air into our cwa with progged
925mb temps in the 14C to 17C range on Thurs. These values support
highs in the mid 70s to near 80F with comfortable humidity values,
as sfc dwpts drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s on Thurs aftn. A
weak elongated piece of energy moves from nw to se acrs our cwa on
Thurs night, but with limited moisture and instability probability
of precip is <25% attm. Highest pops wl be acrs our central/southern
zns late Thurs into Thurs night. Comfortable overnight lows are
expected with readings in the 50s to locally near 60F here in the
CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...A period of unsettled wx returns for
Friday into the upcoming weekend, as a series of boundaries and
disturbances in the jet stream winds aloft impact our region. Still
some spread with regards to timing of greatest precip probabilities,
along with placement of heaviest axis of qpf. Latest trends suggest
greatest threat would be near the International Border late Friday
into Sat. Did note several ingredients favorable for localized heavy
rainfall, which include pw values in the 1.75 to 1.90" range, warm
cloud depths of 11,500 to 12,000 feet, and favorable sfc convergence
with warm frontal boundary in the vicinity. In addition, s/w energy
in the 700-500mb layer wl be riding along llvl boundary, helping to
enhance large scale synoptic ascent. WPC excessive rainfall does
place most of our cwa in marginal risk for both days 4 and 5.
Sounding analysis off the GFS suggests limited instability as
inversion prevails with rather cool sfc temps, given the clouds and
showers anticipated. We wl need to watch if some additional elevated
instability can develop associated with strengthening llvl jet and
developing waa by Sat. Latest ECMWF is a bit further north with axis
of precip/warm frontal position on Saturday and places part of our
cwa in the warm sector with increasing sfc based CAPE values in the
800 to 1400 J/kg range. This solution would also produce warmer sfc
temps with slightly higher dwpts. For now have stuck very close to
the NBM for highs this weekend, along with probabilities of precip,
which are in the 50 to 70% range for Friday into Saturday. Trends
are for drier and warmer weather to return on Sunday and Monday.
Progged 925mb temps warm btwn 23-26C off both the ECWMF and GFS,
supporting highs well into the 80s to locally lower 90s by Monday.
Lows generally warming from the 50s to near 60 on Friday night into
the 60s to lower 70s by Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to continue
over the next 24 hours with ridging in control. Surface winds
(generally around 5 knots) will start off south/southwest, but
a 30 knot low- level jet at 2000 ft AGL will result in some LLWS
for most TAF sites through around sunrise this morning. Winds
will trend west this afternoon, with some afternoon gusts 15 to
20 knots expected. Winds will become light and variable after
00Z.

There is around a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms affecting
most TAF sites between 18Z and 00Z, but given sparse coverage
and lower confidence at this point have omitted mention in the
TAFs. Will likely add in some PROB30 groups with mention of
tstorms in the next TAF package once more specific timing
becomes clearer. Visibilities may briefly become MVFR or even
IFR within any heavier thunderstorms. Some briefly gusty winds
of variable directions are also possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures were achieved at climate sites
yesterday, 6-23. In addition, the all-time record at Plattsburgh
of 101 degrees was tied.

Additional record high maximum and minimum temperatures are
likely. See below for details:

Max Temp Records for 06-23
Site  Observed   - Previous Record
KBTV  99 (Break) - 96|2020
KMPV  93 (Break) - 90|1975
KMSS  92 (Tie)   - 92|2020, 1975
KPBG 101 (Break) - 95|1983
KSLK 90 (Break)  - 89|1964, 1907

High Min Temp Records for 06-23
Site  Observed   - Current Record
KMSS 69 (Break)  - 66|1976
KSLK 66 (Break)  - 63|1976

Max Temp Records for 06-24
Site  Forecast   - Current Record
KBTV 97 (Break)  - 96|2003
KMPV 93 (Break)  - 89|2003
KMSS 92 (Break)  - 91|1957
KPBG 95 (Break)  - 93|1975
KSLK 90 (Tie)    - 90|2003

High Min Temp Records for 06-24
Site  Forecast   - Current Record
KBTV 76 (Break)  - 75|1894
KMPV 71 (Break)  - 65|1985
KMSS 74 (Break)  - 71|1975
KPBG 71 (Break)  - 70|1975
KSLK 67 (Break)  - 64|1921

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ006>008-010-
     011-016>021.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001-
     002-005-009.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026-027-087.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Duell
CLIMATE...Team BTV