766
FXUS61 KBTV 222026
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
326 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a brief break in precipitation, more elevationally dependent
snow and rain spreads back through much of the region late tonight.
This time, greater precipitation amounts will be focused over
central and eastern Vermont, where light snow accumulations are
expected primarily tomorrow morning. Then a breezy, upslope pattern
will develop, supporting several inches of snow through the weekend
in the northern Green Mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EST Friday...A pronounced dry slot over the region
continues to bring mostly dry weather this afternoon and tonight,
with surface low pressure centered over the Catskills of New York.
After becoming fairly scattered this afternoon, cloud cover will
increase throughout the evening ahead of the next round of
precipitation arriving late tonight into tomorrow morning as low
pressure strengths off the New England coast. Overnight low
temperatures will generally be in the 30s, with locations near Lake
Champlain closer to 40.

The next round of precipitation will bring the greatest amounts of
rain to eastern Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom, which missed out
a bit during the earlier precipitation. Some light snow
accumulations will be possible tonight into tomorrow morning above
1500ft as snow levels lower, with an inch or so along the spine of
the Greens. High temperatures will generally be near seasonal
normal, generally in the 40s but breezy northwesterly flow due to a
tight pressure gradient will make it feel quite brisk. By tomorrow
afternoon, widespread precipitation will taper off, with upslope
snow regime becoming favored with blocked flow. These showers will
continue to bring additional inches of snow accumulation to the
higher summits, generally above 2000ft elevation. Overnight lows
Saturday night will be very similar to tonight, with temperatures
dropping into the upper 20 and 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EST Friday...Upslope snow conditions with light rain in
the valleys continue on Sunday as an upper vort moves across the
northern part of the region before quickly being absorbed by the
retreating upper low. Models still show weak moisture in the DGZ
which should limit the high elevation snow to a couple inches during
the day. Lower elevations east of the Greens could see snow light
snow lingering through mid day, but totals right now look to be less
than an inch. Gusty northwest winds will continue through the day
out of the northwest before finally abating after midnight. As
precipitation comes to an end Sunday, evening cloud cover will
decrease overnight as a weak ridge moves into the region bringing a
brief period of dry weather. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 30s
to mid 40s with overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 PM EST Friday...While the period will start off quiet,
things will get active as we move later into the week. Monday will
be dry for most of the day as weak ridging moves through the region.
This will give way to rapidly deepening upper trough that moves
through the Great Lakes region Monday night and into our area early
Tuesday morning. Timing will be key as the system moves in, some
areas, east of the Greens and NEK in particular could still below
freezing at the surface which could lead to pre-dawn freezing rain.
Right now, the models are struggling with the system this far out,
so while the forecast currently has rain-snow mix, keeping an eye on
the future runs and the freezing rain in particular will be very
important, especially with potentially early travelers on the move
for the holiday weekend. The good news is that temperatures will
warm through the day, changing over any mix to just rain, save the
highest elevations.

Wednesday will see mainly mountain snow showers with a potential for
a few flakes in the lower Vallie`s due to a mix of upslope and lake
effect snow. While Thanksgiving Day should start out dry, another
system moves in that looks to bring another round of snow and some
rain in the valleys. It`s still far out, but right now things look
to be unsettled for the entire Thanksgiving Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions across
terminals this afternoon as widespread precipitation comes to
end, with just a few lingering showers at the moment. Some
additional improvements towards VFR will be possible as the
cloud deck becomes more scattered through the afternoon. Towards
06Z, conditions will trend back towards MVFR and even IFR as
additional precipitation moves into the region, with this
conditions continuing for the remainder of the forecast period.
A mix of rain and snow will be possible at higher sites like
KSLK and KMPV (and possibly KRUT and KEFK), with rain expected
at all other terminals which should continue into tomorrow
afternoon. Easterly winds have becoming more southeasterly over
the last several hours, with gusts between 20 to 30 kts at time,
which should taper off towards 00Z. Winds will become more
northwesterly, increasing overnight as the next round of
precipitation moves in, with gusts increasing in the afternoon.
Some LLWS will be possible at the end of the forecast period
across KRUT and KMPV.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Scattered
SHRA, Scattered SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Scattered SHRA,
Scattered SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance RA, Chance FZRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Kremer