551
FXUS61 KBTV 060634
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
234 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 233 AM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 233 AM EDT Sunday...

1. Mostly dry weather will continue through Tuesday.

2. Widespread rain expected Wednesday night and Thursday
morning. Mostly dry conditions expected late week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 233 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A few rain showers continue across the region this hour,
but will gradually diminish through the morning. Although an
isolated shower or two may be possible today, especially across the
high terrain, dry weather is expected to prevail. Temperatures today
will be on the cooler side, generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Clearing skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling tonight,
with lows falling into the 40s and 50s, with some of the colder
hollows dropping into the upper 30s. A brief period of ridging looks
to build in for Monday, continuing to bring mostly dry conditions
throughout the day. A weak cold front pushing through Monday night
may bring spark some light rain showers, particularly near the
Canadian border.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A rather vigorous shortwave trough will be speeding
through the longwave pattern Wednesday night and Thursday. This
feature is expected to entrain an impressive plume of moisture from
the Gulf with PWAT values surging to 2+ inches (2-3 standard
deviations above normal). This will allow a period of moderate to
heavy rainfall to move across the region during the overnight hours.
However, moist adiabatic lapse profiles up to 200 mb leave much to be
desired in terms of instability which should inhibit any
thunderstorms potential, Thus, we expect more of a beneficial
rainfall event with the hydrological issue appear unlikely at this
time. A strong 100+ knot 500 mb jet and 30-45 kt LLJ will help to
quickly push this system to our east with most of the rainfall
exiting the region by daybreak on Thursday.

A broad upper level trough will remain across the region Thursday
and Friday which could set the stage for some isolated to scattered
afternoon showers but additional rainfall will be light as the deep
plume of moisture will be shunted eastward. Global deterministic and
ensemble guidance are coming into better agreement in showing that
mid-level height rises appear likely late Friday into next weekend
which should bring drier conditions back to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...A gradual lowering in ceilings is expected
between now and 12Z. Widespread MVFR ceilings with pockets of
IFR ceilings are expected overnight. Following sunrise, we will
see ceilings lift and clouds will dissipate through the morning
hours yielding widespread VFR conditions. Winds will be from the
north at 5 to 15 knots today going light and variable after
sunset.

Outlook...

Labor Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Clay/Kremer
AVIATION...Clay