447
FXUS61 KBTV 071846
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
246 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 246 PM EDT Monday...

No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 246 PM EDT Monday...

1. Mostly Dry and seasonable into Wednesday.

2. More widespread precipitation arrives late Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

3. Another gorgeous weekend on tap.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 246 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Ridging will become more established and dominate the
synoptic pattern going into Wednesday, continuing the quiet and
relatively seasonable stretch. A dying cold front will come through
tonight and early tomorrow morning and bring a few light showers,
but weak forcing and dry low levels will minimize the impacts.
Overall, highs will be in the 70s and lows will be in the 40s and
50s with low humidity.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A more dynamic fall-like synoptic pattern is beginning
to become established. On Wednesday into Thursday, a deepening low
will move east from northern Ontario and into northern Quebec, with
ensemble guidance indicating it will likely drop to around 985 mb by
the time it reaches Atlantic Canada. The center of the low will pass
by well to the north and the best dynamics should miss the region.
While warm air advection will occur Tuesday and Wednesday and bring
a more humid airmass into the region, there will not be enough time
for a fully tropical airmass to become established. Therefore, this
will limit instability as the system passes by. The highest
instability will be across the St. Lawrence Valley where the warm
airmass has the most time to become established. Dew points there
should briefly reach the mid 60s to around 70 and a few rumbles of
thunder are possible there. Rain arrives for late Wednesday in
northern areas as a warm front pushes through, though it appears to
lack much elevated instability so the rain should just be
stratiform. A strong southwesterly low-level jet will reach the 40-
50 KT range at 850 mb, causing downsloping in the typical spots like
the Champlain Valley, limiting rainfall totals. It will also lead to
widespread gusts in the 20-30 mph range, with locally higher gusts.
The cold front passes through Wednesday night, but the warm sector
never looks to become fully established in the region, so most
convection should remain to the southwest. St. Lawrence County and
southern Vermont look to be the places that may see more convective
enhancement, while the rest of the region should mostly see
synoptically forced rain. Overall expected totals range in the 0.25
to 0.5 inch range for most places, with some higher totals locally
across northern New York.

KEY MESSAGE 3: High pressure will dominate the weekend. The potency of
cold air doesn`t seem quite as strong as a couple days ago, but
Friday will likely only reach the mid 60s and lower 70s. Then, with
the very dry air in place, temperatures are likely to take a nose
dive Friday night. There may be a little return flow that gets
started over northern New York, but otherwise unimpeded radiational
cooling should bring temperatures into the 40s with a handful of
mid/upper 30s in cold hollows except near Lake Champlain or the St.
Lawrence River where some lower 50s are more likely.

High pressure will amble offshore as the weekend progresses.
Temperatures will steadily climb to seasonal norms on Saturday, and
then above normal on Sunday as a stretched out cold front
approaches. The frontal boundary may not push very far given minimal
forcing and a stronger system developing over the northern Plains
next Sunday. So there doesn`t seem to be much in the way of
widespread rain Sunday evening into next Monday when that front will
approach.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. North to northwest winds 6-11 knots will trend light and
variable overnight. High clouds and fast 500-1000 ft flow will
likely preclude any widespread fog development. A trough with light
rain showers will drop south about 09z-18z Tuesday, but will be
decaying. Highest chances for light rain will be across KMSS, KPBG,
KBTV, and KEFK. However, there aren`t expected to be significant
reductions in visibilities. Ceilings should trend towards 1500-5000
ft agl along and just behind the trough. The trough washes out over
the region, which may slow how quickly ceilings come back up and
keep northerly winds relatively light.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Myskowski
AVIATION...Haynes