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FXUS61 KBTV 221746
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1246 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief break in precipitation is expected today before more
elevationally dependent snow and rain spreads back through much
of the region. This time, greater precipitation amounts will be
focused over central and eastern Vermont, where light snow
accumulations are expected primarily tomorrow morning. Then
a breezy, upslope pattern will develop, supporting several
inches of snow through the weekend in the northern Green
Mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Friday...No changes needed to the forecast
with this update. Outside of a few showers, mostly dry
conditions are prevailing across the region, with some sun even
making an appearance as skies try to clear. Temperatures have
been warming through the morning, with the Champlain Valley in
the upper 40s and low 50s already, while northern New York has
seen more rain and clouds with temperatures generally in the
lower 40s. The forecast has all of this covered and is in good
shape.

Previous Discussion...
So far the first storm of two in quick succession is playing
out pretty well, including localized sloppy snow of up to a
couple inches in southern/western portions of the Adirondacks.
Early this morning we are seeing additional bands of light
precipitation (less than 0.1" per hour) spiraling in from the
east and pushing northward through the North Country. These
showers seem to be on the nose of a low level jet maximum, and
with a break in any precipitation, it will help bring in
periodic gustier winds early this morning, primarily near and
just west of the southern Greens. Expect the showers will
eventually provide the Northeast Kingdom with some measurable
precipitation finally this morning. By this afternoon, a
pronounced dry slot evident on water vapor channels of GOES-16
satellite imagery currently over southern New England will move
across our region, shutting off steady precipitation until
tonight. Clouds will scatter effectively with breezy easterly
winds, such that large periods of the day will be sunny and mild
with temperatures reaching near 50 in the warmest spots.

The latest HREF shows potential for some heavier snowfall rates
(liquid of greater than 0.1" per hour) over portions of
southern and eastern Vermont late tonight/early tomorrow
morning associated with another low pressure system deepening to
our southeast. There is substantial spread in precipitation
amounts amongst model guidance, however, especially in southern
and western portions of Vermont. Greatest confidence in snowfall
during this period is ironically in northeastern Vermont where
they have largely missed out on precipitation so far during this
long duration event. Northwesterly flow in the low levels while
being more underneath the upper level low should provide good
large scale and orographic lift while rich moisture circulates
back to the west of a deepening low pressure system passing well
to our east. As such, frontogenetic forcing will be much
greater east of Vermont where precipitation amounts will be
higher. Still, we`re looking at a swath of 0.2" to 0.35" roughly
near and north of I-89 from the western slopes eastward during
the overnight hours into tomorrow morning. Snow ratios will be
as low as 5-8:1 with near freezing temperatures close to the
ground and above freezing surface temperatures for most
locations. That will translate to a coating to a couple inches
of greasy snow at most, and the accumulations look
elevationally dependent snow across this region through tomorrow
morning.

While widespread precipitation will wrap up during the morning,
northwesterly upslope snow showers and valley rain showers will
become the main story across northern Vermont as relative
humidity remains high up to 700 millibars under stiff northwest
flow. Have boosted wind gusts quite a bit from the previous
forecast as uniform winds aloft should help transport winds
efficiently. Top of the mixed layer winds will be near 40 MPH
across much of Vermont, representing potential peak gusts.
Temperatures will be notably cooler than today, mainly in the
30s with some low 40s in the wide valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 324 AM EST Friday...Saturday night into Sunday looks favorable
for upslope snow. An upper vort will dive across the region as it
gets absorbed in the broader upper low pulling away from the region.
A jet streak will strength up to 120 knots aiding in upper
divergence. A few forecast soundings suggests some dubious moisture
in the DGZ, but there appears to at least be enough across our
northern mountains to produce some modest upslope snow showers.
Global model output of about 0.2-0.4" over the northern mountains
suggest we should eke out an additional 2-5" above 2000 feet. Lower
elevations may see a mix of snow early Sunday morning, but gradual
warming from the mid 30s to 40s should make this pretty short-lived
with minimal impacts. It will be breezy Sunday with 10 to 15 mph
winds and gusts 20 to 25 mph likely. It still looks possible for a
few gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible on eastern slopes of the
southern Greens and Adirondacks. The final vort max embedded in the
gyre of the upper low departs late Sunday afternoon, and
precipitation will start to more quickly taper off.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 324 AM EST Friday...Northwest flow will start off the extended
as ridging settles in briefly. Cold advection will result in a night
of mid 20s to lower 30s to start the new work week on only upper 30s
to mid 40s during the day. Our weather pattern will be a little more
active than recent weeks. Another upper trough will race east Monday
night into Tuesday. Southwesterly flow will prevent much cooling
overnight. Precipitation will begin to reach the area during the
pre-dawn hours Tuesday. The main thing to watch will be the exact
arrival time in parts of the Northeast Kingdom, where temperatures
will be below freezing Tuesday morning. If it makes it before too
much heating can occur, there could be some light freezing rain.
However, if it`s too late, then conditions will be able to warm
above freezing. Trends have been for a stronger surface low compared
to yesterday. This would support a slower arrival time of
precipitation, but also suggests we might be able to get a little
more liquid out of this, and we`ll happily take what we can get to
make up recent deficits.  Behind the system, there will be a
combination of mountain snow showers and a little lake effect snow
as well heading into Wednesday. Of course, the primary concern will
be how a fast moving area of low pressure progresses across the Ohio
River Valley and Mid- Atlantic region. An examination of
probabilistic bricks suggest the potential there could be some snow
on Thanksgiving Day, but the majority of individual ensembles
suggest next Friday or Saturday may be a bit more likely to observe
anything. There are also a few that have entirely nothing. So
there`s still plenty of uncertainty, as is natural for a Day 7-8
forecast. We`ll watch trends closely.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions across
terminals this afternoon as widespread precipitation comes to
end, with just a few lingering showers at the moment. Some
additional improvements towards VFR will be possible as the
cloud deck becomes more scattered through the afternoon. Towards
06Z, conditions will trend back towards MVFR and even IFR as
additional precipitation moves into the region, with this
conditions continuing for the remainder of the forecast period.
A mix of rain and snow will be possible at higher sites like
KSLK and KMPV (and possibly KRUT and KEFK), with rain expected
at all other terminals which should continue into tomorrow
afternoon. Easterly winds have becoming more southeasterly over
the last several hours, with gusts between 20 to 30 kts at time,
which should taper off towards 00Z. Winds will become more
northwesterly, increasing overnight as the next round of
precipitation moves in, with gusts increasing in the afternoon.
Some LLWS will be possible at the end of the forecast period
across KRUT and KMPV.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Scattered
SHRA, Scattered SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Scattered SHRA,
Scattered SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance RA, Chance FZRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Kremer