763
FXUS61 KBTV 250604
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
104 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few additional showers and breezy conditions will continue this
evening, with high pressure bringing a period of quiet weather for
Monday. Another system will bring widespread rain to the region on
Tuesday, with some pockets of freezing rain during the morning. A
potentially more significant winter storm may follow for the
Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 104 AM EST Monday...Forecast is playing out well with
subtle expansion of a thin stratus deck around 3000 feet above
ground level. Precipitation in Canaan, Vermont where the best
moisture is across the region has tapered to occasional flurries
based on webcam images so have further cut back PoPs to nil or
under 10% in that far northeastern portion of the state. Winds
have also begun to further relax, with only northeastern/north
central Vermont and high terrain still gusty at this hour.

Previous discussion...Surface low pressure centered well to the
northeast over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to bring a
few additional showers and breezy winds to the region this
evening. A brief period of high pressure will begin to build
into the region, with shower activity tapering off into the
overnight hours and winds trending lighter. Overnight lows will
be seasonably cold with some partial clearing, with temperatures
dropping into the 20s and even teens in portions of the
Adirondacks.

A period of quiet weather will continue through Monday with the high
pressure overhead, bringing seasonable temperatures, dry weather, and
even some sunshine. Temperatures during the day will warm into the
upper 30s to lower 40s, with the Northeast Kingdom being on the
cooler side due to lingering cloud cover. Overnight lows will drop
into the 20s to near freezing in the broader valleys Monday night. A
shortwave trough and associated frontal system will move in Monday
night into Tuesday, which will bring another period of widespread
precipitation to the region. Some areas of light freezing rain will
be possible early Tuesday morning, with the greatest chances of ice
accumulation across the higher elevations and locations east of the
Green Mountains. Any ice accumulations, even just a glaze, can be
hazardous and lead to slick conditions, so any motorists and
pedestrians should be cautious. Temperatures should be warm enough
in the Champlain Valley before the precipitation arrives to limit
the potential for icy roads, but we will continue to monitor as we
get closer.

&&


.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 307 PM EST Sunday...Lingering light rains and pockets of
morning light freezing rain in eastern Vermont taper to
scattered rain/snow showers by Tuesday afternoon as best forcing
pushes east of the region. Brisk westerly flow in the lower to
mid levels along with modestly strong cold thermal advection
should allow some decent response off Lake Ontario with highest
PoPs in downwind sections of the lake across the southern SLV
and into the Dacks. Some of this may spill into the higher
terrain of the Greens as well with coverage in these latter
areas more heavily depending on the PBL wind direction.
Regardless, some minor snow accumulations will be possible in
the higher elevations of these areas into Tuesday night.
Elsewhere, QPF will be very light to nil and will fall as light
rain showers, at least during the daylight hours on Tuesday.
Highs to top of in the 40s area wide with overnight lows from 25
to 35 under variable cloud cover and continued modest
west/southwest flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 307 PM EST Sunday...The primary concern during the
extended periods of the forecast is the larger-scale storm
potentially affecting the region on Thanksgiving Day into
Friday. Deterministic solutions remain in disagreement with each
other, though are generally consistent with their respective
ensemble members. While some output, such as this morning`s
ECMWF output advertise a more impactful rain/snow system during
this period, the GFS, GEM and their ensembles are less bullish
showing a less amplified solution. A perusal of data suggests
the differences are largely hinging on the elevation of 500 hPa
troughing across south central Canada and a blocking upper ridge
to its north in the Ungava/Davis Strait region. The GFS/GEM
camp is showing this high latitude ridge as a stronger feature
and suppressing heights slightly southward whereas the ECMWF
less-so. Time will tell how this evolves, so for now will
continue to offer solid chance (40-50%) PoPs for this period for
mixed rains/snows and allow future forecasts to adjust
accordingly once we attain better agreement.

Behind the Thu/Fri system and toward next weekend there is broad
agreement that overall heights will lower as fairly deep polar
troughing settles southward across the northern tier of the CONUS
east of the Rockies. As such, expect a trend toward colder than
normal temperatures and periodic chances for snow showers here and
there, especially in the snowbelts to the lee of Lake Ontario and
across the northern higher terrain where additional light
accumulations should be likely.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Primarily VFR, although with ceilings near
3000 feet there are also MVFR conditions at higher elevation
sites MPV and EFK, with potential for a short period of MVFR
ceilings at SLK as well between about 09Z and 12Z. MVFR
ceilings may linger through the day at EFK and through about 16Z
at MPV. Otherwise, a lot of SKC conditions at terminals through
the period, with increasing high clouds incoming from the west
late towards 06Z. WNW winds will still be breezy thru at least 12z
at MPV and EFK with gusts around 15 knots gradually
diminishing. Meanwhile, northwest winds at BTV and PBG will be
about 7 to 10 knots, and lighter/variable winds are expected
elsewhere.


Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite FZRA, Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thanksgiving Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
RA, Chance SHRA, Chance SN, Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Kutikoff/SLW