320
FXUS61 KBTV 271833
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
133 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will continue over parts of northern New York
through this evening, before ending by tomorrow morning. Upslope
snow will develop tomorrow morning and continue through tomorrow
night. Precipitation will taper off for Saturday before the next
storm system arrives on Sunday. An active wintry weather pattern
looks to unfold to begin December.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 126 PM EST Thursday...A disorganized lake effect band is
currently oriented into parts of St. Lawrence and Franklin counties.
Despite briefly high snowfall rates, a shifting orientation and
marginal surface temperatures have limited accumulations so far. As
colder air aloft arrives this afternoon and evening, and as we lose
diurnal heating, the band should become more organized. During that
time, local snowfall rates exceeding an inch per hour are likely. A
trough swings through during the night and flow will quickly become
northwesterly, and it will shift the band south of the region. As
the trough provides some better lift, it looks to help extend the
band into Vermont where a few snow showers are possible, even into
the Champlain Valley. However, outside the Jay Peak area, there will
not be much in the way of accumulations.

As the flow becomes northwesterly heading into tomorrow, the moist
cyclonic flow will continue and an upslope event will begin. These
snow showers will continue through tomorrow night and several inches
are expected in the most favored areas. However, unblocked flow will
cause the highest totals to be on the summits and immediately
downwind, so the route 100 corridor in northern Vermont should see
some accumulations while the western slopes should see almost
nothing. Deepening instability tomorrow afternoon could cause a few
convective snow showers to reach down into the valleys, but with
lots of dry air and marginal temperatures, any lasting accumulations
there will be tough to come by.

Strong winds will continue through tomorrow, with gusts in the 20 to
40 mph range expected. The strongest gusts should be in the far
northern Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley today due to
downsloping and channeling respectively. Strong winds will also
continue on Lake Champlain. Winds look to be slightly lower on
Friday, gusting between 20 to 35 mph. Winds will be southwesterly
today, before becoming northwesterly tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 126 PM EST Thursday...Ridging briefly builds in for Saturday
and Saturday night, putting an end to the upslope snow. Skies should
gradually clear during the day, and the clearing should even reach
the Northeast kingdom by the end of the day. However, by this point,
high clouds will be beginning to enter the region out ahead of the
next storm system. There looks to be a brief period where there will
be somewhat clear skies and relatively calm winds for the first half
of Saturday night, and temperatures could quickly fall if the
boundary layer decouples. Lower clouds and stronger boundary layer
winds arrive later in the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 126 PM EST Thursday...An active winter type pattern prevails
for the long term as mid/upper lvl trof persists acrs the eastern
CONUS, which wl support at or below normal temps and several chances
for precip. First moderately strong clipper like system wl pass to
our west on Sunday with a period of waa snow and gusty winds likely,
followed by a potential stronger system for midweek.

For Sunday, mid/upper lvl trof acrs the northern Plains wl help to
enhanced 1008mb sfc low pres over the s-central Great Lakes by 12z
Sunday, while southerly pres gradient strengthens acrs our cwa.
Several ingredients are supporting a brief burst of moderate snow on
Sunday morning acrs our cwa, such as nose of 850mb jet of 50 to 55
knots, favorable dual 250mb jet structure helping with synoptic
scale ascent, and brief axis of good 850 to 700mb fgen forcing
associated with initial surge of waa lift/moisture. So have
continued with high cat 90-100% for a 1 to 3 hour window of
accumulating snowfall on Sunday morning acrs our cwa. Expect a quick
inch or two with this burst of snow, which could briefly cause some
areas of slick travel. As better forcing and moisture lift north and
progged 850mb jet of 50 to 55 knots moves directly overhead, expect
downslope shadowing to develop acrs the CPV/northern NY with mostly
trrn influence precip coverage by Sunday aftn. Have confined higher
pops to favorable upslope areas on Sunday aftn/evening with bl temps
warming enough to support some mix in the CPV and eastern SLV, while
colder air stayed locked in acrs eastern/central VT, including the
NEK and immediate SLV.

The system is progressive and window for favorable upslope flow is
limited on backside Sunday night into Monday, as drier air
associated with 1028mb high pres quickly advects into our region.
Have just some minor lingering pops in the mtns Sunday night/Monday
AM. Temps warm into the l/m 30s east of the Greens to mid 30s/lower
40s CPV and parts of the eastern SLV on Sunday. Dry and chilly
conditions are expected on Monday into Tuesday with building 1030mb
high pres and associated dry airmass.

Meanwhile, our potential next system may impact our region late
Tuesday into Weds with another round of snow. As always in this time
frame, a wide spread in operational and ensemble guidance prevails
with little agreement shown in the latest 12z run. The general setup
shows developing full latitude mid/upper lvl trof acrs the central
Plains on Monday, which should help to enhance sfc low pres over the
northern Gulf States by 12z Tues. High pres centered over northern
New England wl provide a llvl CAD signature on the lee-side of the
Appalachian Mtns, helping to tighten the thermal gradient and
promote cyclogenesis. However, mid/upper lvl pattern remains
relatively progressive with minimal upstream blocking and this
results in a positively tilted and open mid/upper lvl trof axis,
which may produce a flatter/faster low pres track. UKMET/GEM/ICON
are slower and stronger with sfc low pres and would support greater
impacts acrs our cwa, meanwhile ECMWF/AI ECMWF is flatter/weaker
with low pres passing south and east of the benchmark, supporting
limited snowfall acrs our region. The 12z GFS run has trended toward
the ECMWF, so for now have bumped pops into the low likely range
late Tues into Weds with high chc near the International Border. Did
note the 13Z NBM run indicates a 20-40% prob of >4" north and 40 to
60% prob south, while suggesting a 60 to 90% prob of qpf >0.25" for
the event. We will continue to watch later guidance, especially as
energy becomes better sampled by this upcoming weekend and guidance
spread decreases with consistent trends identified. Otherwise,
profiles would be cool enough to support snow with highs mostly in
the mid 20s to lower 30s for mid week and lows in the teens to mid
20s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Aviation challenge will be timing lake
effect snow showers at SLK and associated IFR/LIFR conditions,
followed by gusty winds through tonight at all sites. Current
radar shows broken band of lake effect snow showers with periods
of IFR vis just north of SLK, while rest of our sites are
experiencing VFR conditions. This band should drop back south
and impact SLK between 20z-03z this evening with periods of LIFR
conditions in moderate to locally heavy snow shower activity.
Have placed several tempo groups to cover this probability thru
the evening hours. Otherwise, rest of our taf sites should see
mostly VFR cigs/vis with some 30 to 40% prob of MVFR cigs/vis at
MSS/EFK thru the evening hours. Gusty southwest winds of 15 to
30 knots prevail this aftn, slowly becoming 10 to 20 knots
overnight. Areas of turbulence and wind shear are likely,
especially acrs the higher trrn with some trrn peaks obscured
in the dacks expected. Additional snow showers with intervals of
IFR conditions are likely at SLK on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SHSN, Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: MVFR. Chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
A period of gusty winds will continue today over Lake Champlain
due to channeled flow. Winds will begin to taper off this
afternoon but wind speeds of 15 to 25 knots and gusts up to 30
knots will continue for much of the day. Waves will build
towards 2 to 4 feet, with values locally up to 5 feet over the
broad waters. Sustained winds should briefly fall into the 10 to
20 KT range tonight, but they will quickly increase into the 20
to 30 KT range tomorrow. Winds will eventually transition from
southerly today to northwesterly tomorrow.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at Colchester Reef will likely leave it
inoperable for an extended period of time. Its technicians have
no time of arrival of it being back in service. Use extra
caution when navigating the broad waters, and please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for NYZ029.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for NYZ030-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Kremer/Taber
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV