935
FXUS61 KBTV 050152
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
952 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds thicken tonight ahead of a storm system that arrives during
the day tomorrow. While it will be rain for most areas, the higher
elevations may see some wintry mix at the beginning, particularly in
eastern Vermont. Winds will also be strong tomorrow evening, with
this highest gusts expected in the northern Champlain Valley. The
steady rain moves out for Sunday, but temperatures will be below
average heading into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 951 PM EDT Friday...No changes to the forecast needed with
everything in excellent shape. Wispy, thin cirrus continues to
crest over an incoming upper ridge from the strong convection
ongoing over the Mississippi River Valley.

Previous discussion...
The lingering low clouds over the Northeast Kingdom should
dissipate this afternoon and skies should be clear going into
the evening. High clouds will increase tonight out ahead of this
weekend`s storm system, and the clouds will lower and thicken
tomorrow morning. Temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to
mid 30s tonight, but they will rise well above freezing tomorrow
morning before any precipitation arrives. Subfreezing surface
dew points and a dry layer in the lower atmosphere will help
cause evaporative cooling as the precipitation arrives, though
the dry layer could delay the onset slightly.

The coldest air will be entrenched east of the Greens, and a brief
period of snow and sleet is possible at the onset, particularly in
the highest elevations. Even if temperatures are slightly above
freezing at the surface, there will be a deep subfreezing layer
below the warm nose that will be able to refreeze any precipitation
that melts, and cause sleet. Warm-air advection will quickly erode
this cold layer and by late afternoon, the precipitation will be
restricted to freezing rain where surface temperatures are below
freezing and rain elsewhere. Right now, it looks like only the
higher elevations will be cold enough for any freezing rain. The
freezing level looks to be around 2,500 feet in New York and 2,000
feet in Vermont. Some light ice accumulations are possible in these
areas before temperatures rise above freezing Saturday night.
Periods of rain will continue overnight but they will become more
scattered toward Sunday morning. Some elevated instability looks to
develop Saturday night and some thunder is possible. Overall
precipitation amounts should be under an inch, so even though there
will be river rises, no flooding is expected. A strong low-level jet
will pass over the region Saturday evening. Southerly flow will help
it channel up the Champlain Valley and gusts up to 50 mph are
possible there. Since there should be widespread precipitation
during this time frame, there is uncertainty on how much the winds
will mix. Restricted mixing could confine the strongest winds to
areas immediately along Lake Champlain. Some local gusts up to 50
mph are also possible in the typical downslope areas of the northern
Adirondacks, though the mixing looks less favorable there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM EDT Friday...Low pressure will quickly scoot across our
region Sunday morning, followed by a rush of colder air. This will
help change any wintry mixed precipitation back over to either plain
rain or plain snow. However, the incoming airmass is also fairly
dry, so while there will be scattered to perhaps numerous showers in
the morning, activity will quickly wane by the afternoon. Cooling
will result in steep low level lapse rates, making for a breezy
afternoon. Temperatures may hold steady or even fall slightly at the
onset of cold air advection, but expect we`ll warm into the low 40s
to around 50F as we see some sunshine in the afternoon. Sunday
evening will be dry, but a secondary wave of low pressure moving by
to our south may be just enough to spread light snow over our
southern sections later in the overnight hours. Most areas will only
see a dusting to perhaps a half inch, especially in lower elevations
where temperatures will remain close to freezing, Higher elevations
may get an inch or so by daybreak Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Friday...Light rain/snow showers may persist into
Monday morning as a wave of low pressure slides by to our south, but
better chances arrive Monday night into Tuesday. An upper trough
will dig into the eastern Great Lakes and across northern New
England, with scattered to widespread showers developing as it does
so. The bulk of the activity will occur late Monday night through
Tuesday morning and should generally fall as snow, even in the wider
valleys. Some showers may be briefly heavy, and temperatures will
fall sharply as the upper trough and surface cold front move
through, which may make for a bit of a tricky commute Tuesday
morning. Drier air will allow activity to wind down through the
afternoon. Otherwise, Tuesday will be cold and blustery with highs
only in the 30s. High pressure and follows for Wednesday and
Thursday, with temperatures warming into the 40s and 50s.
Precipitation chances return by the end of the week as another
trough digs into our west and moisture starts to lift back
northward, though there remains some question how quickly ridging
exits. Have stayed close to NBM for the latter half of the week due
to differences in model solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...High level cirrus clouds will spread
overhead this evening, thickening and lowering through the
night. Between 15Z and 20Z, expect ceilings to lower to MVFR
level from west to east as stratus clouds and precipitation
move into the area. Ceilings will remain low MVFR through 00Z
at most TAF sites, except locally fall to IFR levels at KMSS and
KSLK towards the end of the 24 hour TAF period.

Surface winds will start off light and variable overnight, then
increase from the southeast Saturday morning (locally northeast
in the Saint Lawrence Valley). After 15Z, expect gusts 15 to 25
kts to develop, increasing to 25+ knots after 18Z especially in
the northern Adirondacks and Champlain Valley. In addition to
gusty surface winds, expect widespread LLWS to develop after 18Z
as a strong southerly low level jet moves overhead. Areas of
turbulence are also likely, especially around terrain.

Precipitation will mainly be in the form of rain tomorrow,
although some higher elevations of eastern Vermont may see some
brief freezing rain/snow mixed in. Some light icing is possible
in these areas, though no ice is forecast at any of our TAF
sites at this time. Visibilities will briefly reduce within
heavy rain showers, but for the most part will remain 4SM or
greater.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Definite RA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for VTZ001-
     002-005.
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ028.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Duell