778
FXUS61 KBTV 020632
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
232 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a period of cooler days, warmer weather is opening the month
of September. A few scattered showers will be possible today and
tomorrow, but better chances for more widespread rain will arrive
Thursday evening into Friday ahead of a large upper low. In addition
to wetting rain, there will be some stronger winds Thursday and
Friday, especially in the Champlain Valley and far northern
Adirondacks.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 232 AM EDT Tuesday...Surface high pressure will remain centered
over the region today before it gradually pushes off to the east
tomorrow. Despite the surface high, there is a weak upper low moving
through and it is bringing some high cloud cover. No rain is
expected for the rest of the night, but the low will bring cool
enough conditions aloft for a little instability to develop this
afternoon, so a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible. The areas with the highest probabilities of seeing
them are over the terrain of the Adirondacks and Greens, but even
there they are under 40 percent. A few showers are possible again
tomorrow afternoon, but the probabilities of seeing them are even
less than today. The surface high will cause another night of ideal
radiational cooling tonight. With less cloud cover than currently
out there, patchy fog will be more widespread in the favored
valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 232 AM EDT Tuesday...A deep trough will approach the region on
Thursday, increasing shower chances and bringing gusty winds. The
initial front currently looks to enter northern New York sometime
Thursday afternoon and reach Vermont sometime in the evening or
overnight. It will likely bring a round of steady precipitation,
with some embedded convective elements possible. However, weak
instability should prevent much of a severe threat. An associated
southerly low level jet will bring strong winds late Wednesday night
through Thursday. Channeling in the Champlain Valley and downsloping
in the far northern Adirondacks will enhance the winds there, and
gusts to 30 mph are expected, though they could be locally higher in
the most favored locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 232 AM EDT Tuesday...Still expecting some gusty winds Thursday
night ahead of surface boundary which will bring showers with
possible thunderstorms to our area. As a series of boundaries move
across the region Friday into next weekend, additional threat for
showers are likely, especially across the higher terrain.
Temperatures will slowly trend back below normal by late weekend
into early next week with a drying trend expected by early next
week. Highs generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s for Friday and
Saturday, before cooling back into the upper 50s to mid 60s by
Sunday/Monday, while lows are in the upper 40s to near 60s to start,
but cool back into the mid 30s to upper 40s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fog has already formed at MPV, and additional fog formation is
possible at both SLK and EFK as some clearing works it`s way into
the region. Winds shift southerly in the morning becoming westerly
through the afternoon with an upper low circulation dragging across
the region. Lapse rates and daytime surface instability will support
some showers, especially over higher terrain of the Adirondacks.
There will be about a 30% chance of a shower in the 18-24Z time
frame for SLK/MSS/EFK with 15-20% at BTV/PBG/MPV.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles