386
FXUS61 KBTV 221124
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
724 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief warm up will take place this weekend. Dry weather will
continue through Saturday. Saturday night into Sunday, a slow moving
frontal boundary will begin to shift east before stalling near
eastern Vermont on Monday. Increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms for the new week will bring some beneficial rain
across the forecast area. Cooler air returns for the midweek, and a
few showers will remain possible as weak disturbances will
periodically pass nearby.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...Conditions will be quiet today and
tomorrow. Today will be relatively dry with mid-level dry air and
subsidence across the region helping to mix lower dewpoints to the
surface. Winds will mainly be northwest to northerly around 5 to 10
mph, though. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s
today with comfortable humidity. All-in-all, quite a pleasant late
Summer day.

For tomorrow, temperatures and humidity will begin to climb as
southwesterly flow becomes reestablished. Dry air and an inversion
layer will prevent most precipitation until Sunday. So warming well
into the 80s across the region is expected. Tightening pressure
gradients between a building ridge in the Atlantic and a strong
upper low approaching James Bay will begin to speed up winds across
the region. Sustained winds around 10 mph, channeling to 15 mph or
so in the Champlain Valley with gusts 15 to 25 mph are likely. With
relative humidity values around 35 to 45 percent and developing
drought, some fire weather concerns are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...Heading into Saturday night and Sunday, a
stretched out frontal boundary will gradually slide east. A brief
increase in frontal forcing as moisture rides along the boundary
will send precipitation up across northern New York around midnight.
The better forcing will lift north of the international border
towards Sunday morning, and rain chances will begin to taper off
midday. An incoming shortwave and diurnally driven instability will
result in precipitation redeveloping mid to late Sunday afternoon
with the potential for thunder. As remains the concern, there will
be about 35 to 45 knots of 0-6km bulk shear present. Outside
thunderstorm activity, the development of a mixed layer could result
in non-thunderstorm gusts of 20 to 30 mph, locally up to 35 mph near
Lake Champlain. The main limiting factors for stronger thunderstorms
are marginal instability of around 500-1000 J/kg and that the best
synoptic forcing will be west or north of our forecast area until
Sunday night. Moisture parameters feature about 1.5" PWATs, which
isn`t extreme, but could result in heavy rainfall in stronger
convective elements. The orientation of flow is not totally
paralleling the frontal boundary. So there should be some forward
motion to the front as showers and storms bubble along the ill-
defined wind boundary. Rainfall totals across Sunday will mainly be
0.10"-0.33" with a few locally higher totals up to an inch within
thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...A deep upper level trough will build into
the region for the start of next week, bringing unsettled weather
and cooler conditions. With the trough overhead, daily chances for
showers will be possible. Temperatures will be on the cooler side
during this time frame with abundant cloud cover and showers, with
high temperatures on the mid 60s to low 70s for both Tuesday and
Wednesday with overnight lows dropping into the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Some patchy fog at several terminals will
continue to dissipate over the next few hours, with VFR conditions
prevailing at all terminals thereafter. Winds will trend light and
northeasterly this afternoon, less than 10 knots, before becoming
light and terrain-driven once again overnight with some increasing
high clouds streaming into the region.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer