409
FXUS61 KBTV 301813
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
213 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through early this
evening across the region, before more light rain redevelops on
Thursday afternoon and night across central and southern Vermont.
Much cooler and drier weather is anticipated for Friday into the
upcoming weekend with comfortable humidity values. Areas of haze and
smoke are possible from time to time across the region over the next
couple of days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Wednesday...Upper air analysis with GOES 19 water
vapor imagery indicates fast confluent flow aloft is developing acrs
the Great Lakes into the NE CONUS, while a weak cold frnt is draped
along the International Border. Widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected thru early this evening, with brief
heavy rainfall, lightning, and isolated gusty winds as the
primary threat. Environmental conditions show sfc based CAPE
values in the 800-1500 J/kg range, while 0 to 6 km shear is
increasing to 45 to 60 knots, mostly driven off increasing 500mb
winds of 50 to 60 knots. The question wl be if enough
instability wl be present for vertical development to reach
these stronger winds before getting sheared apart. Areal
coverage and intensity of showers/storms should wane by sunset
with the loss of sfc heating/instability, along with limited
dynamics.

GOES-19 True Color imagery and upstream obs indicate large area of
smoke with Maniwaki vis at 3SM and vis in the 5-7SM range
already in the SLV with decreasing air quality, so have re-
introduced haze/smoke into the grids late this aftn into the
overnight hours. HRRR smoke model is struggling based on crnt
obs/satl trends. Also, as low level wind fields shift to the
north/northeast on Thurs, conditions should improve acrs our
cwa.

For Thursday, the challenge conts to be areal coverage of pops/qpf
acrs our central/southern cwa. Upstream radar shows a rather large
area of precip acrs the central Great Lakes, which is progged to
ride along a stationary boundary draped acrs central NY into central
New England. This boundary wl help to tighten the thermal gradient
and associated fgen low level fgen forcing parameters. Latest trends
in the HRRR/RAP and NAM solutions, along with the latest 12Z ECMWF
is to have light precip expand into our central/southern cwa on
Thurs aftn and continue into Thurs night. In coordination with WFO
ALY/GYX we have expanded our likely pops by 21z and carried
them into the overnight hours acrs Rutland/Windsor counties. A
sharp north to south gradient in pops/qpf is anticipated, as sfc
high pres wl be advecting in much drier air near the
International Border as pw values drop <1.0". These setups with
a sharp north to south gradient are extremely difficult to pin
point the exact northerly extent of precip and wl probably need
further adjustments in the future. Also, did cut the NBM for
highs on Thurs acrs Rutland/Windsor counties based on more
clouds/precip.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM EDT Wednesday...Showers with high pops linger
mainly south of Route 4 on Thurs night, before drier air
eventually develops acrs our entire cwa by Friday. Large 1028mb
sfc high pres slowly builds into our cwa on Friday into Friday
night with clearing skies and much less humidity. Pw values drop
below 0.75" by 18z Friday with light northerly winds. Did note
the MAVSLK is 35F, while the NBM is 43F for SLK on Sat morning.
Did trend toward the BCMOS for lows on Fri night, which supports
upper 30s SLK/NEK to upper 50s near the warmer waters of Lake
Champlain. Otherwise, comfortable highs in the upper 60s to mid
70s are expected on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 156 PM EDT Wednesday...Surface high pressure will continue to
build into the region this weekend, bringing dry conditions and
seasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures on Saturday look to
be quite comfortable, generally in the 70s to low 80s with dewpoints
in the 40s and low 50s. A warming trend can be expected Sunday into
next week as high pressure and a drier airmass remain situated over
the region, with highs climbing into the 80s areawide. The extend
period of dry weather combined with low relative humidities could
lead to increased weather concerns into early next week, especially
in locations where dry soils and some fire activity already exist.
The next chances of precipitation looks to arrive by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all
terminal. A few showers and thunderstorms have begun to pop up this
afternoon, although coverage looks to remain fairly limited and
scattered in nature so PROB30 groups were utilized for this
potential. Any showers or thunderstorms that pass over terminals may
briefly reduce visibilities due to heavy rainfall. Shower activity
will wane this evening, between 21Z and 00Z. Some reduced
visibilities will continue to be possible overnight due some haze
from wildfire smoke moving into the region behind the line of
showers, with terminals across northern New York most likely to see
reductions in visibilities, generally 4SM to 5SM based on upstream
observations. By 12Z tomorrow, VFR conditions look to prevail across
all terminals for the remainder of the forecast period. Winds this
afternoon will continue to be between 5 and 10 knots at most
terminals, with light and variable winds expected overnight,
becoming northerly throughout the day tomorrow.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Chance RA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer