500
FXUS61 KBTV 250225
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
925 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few additional showers and breezy conditions will continue this
evening, with high pressure bringing a period of quiet weather for
Monday. Another system will bring widespread rain to the region on
Tuesday, with some pockets of freezing rain during the morning. A
potentially more significant winter storm may follow for the
Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 921 PM EST Sunday...No significant changes were needed
with this update. Skies have cleared out across much of the
forecast area this evening, with the bulk of the cloud cover
continuing to linger across northeast VT. Snow showers have
pretty much ended across the region as well, though a few
flurries are still being reported in southern Quebec. Clouds may
increase a bit overnight as another weak upper shortwave rotates
southward out of Canada, but any lingering snow will continue to
dissipate. Winds have remained on the breezy side, though gusts
have definitely lessened since earlier in the evening. The
forecast has this all pretty much covered; only real changes
were to made to adjust cloud cover down to better match
satellite trends.

Previous discussion...Surface low pressure centered well to the
northeast over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to bring a
few additional showers and breezy winds to the region this
evening. A brief period of high pressure will begin to build
into the region, with shower activity tapering off into the
overnight hours and winds trending lighter. Overnight lows will
be seasonably cold with some partial clearing, with temperatures
dropping into the 20s and even teens in portions of the
Adirondacks.

A period of quiet weather will continue through Monday with the high
pressure overhead, bringing seasonable temperatures, dry weather, and
even some sunshine. Temperatures during the day will warm into the
upper 30s to lower 40s, with the Northeast Kingdom being on the
cooler side due to lingering cloud cover. Overnight lows will drop
into the 20s to near freezing in the broader valleys Monday night. A
shortwave trough and associated frontal system will move in Monday
night into Tuesday, which will bring another period of widespread
precipitation to the region. Some areas of light freezing rain will
be possible early Tuesday morning, with the greatest chances of ice
accumulation across the higher elevations and locations east of the
Green Mountains. Any ice accumulations, even just a glaze, can be
hazardous and lead to slick conditions, so any motorists and
pedestrians should be cautious. Temperatures should be warm enough
in the Champlain Valley before the precipitation arrives to limit
the potential for icy roads, but we will continue to monitor as we
get closer.

 &&

.Short Term /Monday through Monday Night/...

An unsettled start to the week is expected as widespread
precipitation associated with a warm front moving through the region
becomes showery. A few breaks in the showers may be possible as we
head into the afternoon, although it will still be a bit dreary with
plenty of cloud cover across the region and breezy winds. The
warmest temperatures of the week are expected Monday afternoon, with
highs in the 50s to near 60F in a few locations, which is about 10
degrees or so warmer that climatological normals for this time of
year. Shower activity will redevelop Monday evening through the
overnight hours as a cold front passes through the region, which
much of the shower activity focused across the northern half of the
forecast area. As the front moves through, winds will become more
northwesterly, with upslope showers becoming more favorable. Snow
levels will lower Monday night, with some snow mixing in, and light
snow accumulations possible across the higher terrain, although any
accumulations to be less than an inch. Overall rainfall amounts will
be a few tenths of an inch, ranging from 0.5 inches across the
Adirondacks and northern Greens to only 0.1 across parts of southern
Vermont. Temperatures overnight Monday will cool into the 30s to
near 40 in the broad valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 307 PM EST Sunday...Lingering light rains and pockets of
morning light freezing rain in eastern Vermont taper to
scattered rain/snow showers by Tuesday afternoon as best forcing
pushes east of the region. Brisk westerly flow in the lower to
mid levels along with modestly strong cold thermal advection
should allow some decent response off Lake Ontario with highest
PoPs in downwind sections of the lake across the southern SLV
and into the Dacks. Some of this may spill into the higher
terrain of the Greens as well with coverage in these latter
areas more heavily depending on the PBL wind direction.
Regardless, some minor snow accumulations will be possible in
the higher elevations of these areas into Tuesday night.
Elsewhere, QPF will be very light to nil and will fall as light
rain showers, at least during the daylight hours on Tuesday.
Highs to top of in the 40s area wide with overnight lows from 25
to 35 under variable cloud cover and continued modest
west/southwest flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 307 PM EST Sunday...The primary concern during the
extended periods of the forecast is the larger-scale storm
potentially affecting the region on Thanksgiving Day into
Friday. Deterministic solutions remain in disagreement with each
other, though are generally consistent with their respective
ensemble members. While some output, such as this morning`s
ECMWF output advertise a more impactful rain/snow system during
this period, the GFS, GEM and their ensembles are less bullish
showing a less amplified solution. A perusal of data suggests
the differences are largely hinging on the elevation of 500 hPa
troughing across south central Canada and a blocking upper ridge
to its north in the Ungava/Davis Strait region. The GFS/GEM
camp is showing this high latitude ridge as a stronger feature
and suppressing heights slightly southward whereas the ECMWF
less-so. Time will tell how this evolves, so for now will
continue to offer solid chance (40-50%) PoPs for this period for
mixed rains/snows and allow future forecasts to adjust
accordingly once we attain better agreement.

Behind the Thu/Fri system and toward next weekend there is broad
agreement that overall heights will lower as fairly deep polar
troughing settles southward across the northern tier of the CONUS
east of the Rockies. As such, expect a trend toward colder than
normal temperatures and periodic chances for snow showers here and
there, especially in the snowbelts to the lee of Lake Ontario and
across the northern higher terrain where additional light
accumulations should be likely.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Primarily VFR with SCT-BKN035-050 through
12z Mon then high-mid clouds advance ahead of the next system.
WNW winds will still be breezy thru 06-12z with gusts around 20
knots gradually diminishing. High pressure builds in to the
region, bringing VFR conditions and lighter winds to all
terminals around 12Z.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Chance RA, Slight chance FZRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite RA,
Likely FZRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thanksgiving Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SN, Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong westerly winds have developed over Lake Champlain early
this morning. Both the northern waters and broad lake are
seeing sustained winds near 25 knots with higher gusts.
Conditions will remain fairly consistent through the day with
winds more markedly tapering off tonight. Wave heights should be
2 to 4 feet, with largest wave action over Burlington and
Shelburne Bays given the favorable wind direction/largest fetch.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kremer
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV