382
FXUS61 KBTV 242334
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
734 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent low pressure that brought us a prolonged period of cool
and wet weather will finally start to move away tonight and Sunday.
The result will be fewer showers on Sunday, along with more
seasonable temperatures. Dry, mostly sunny, and warm conditions will
return for Memorial Day through Wednesday, then rain chances
increase beginning Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 629 PM EDT Saturday...Our damp and cool conditions
continue as deep cyclonic flow prevails acrs our fa with areas
of rain showers and summit wet snow flakes. GOES-19 mid lvl
water vapor indicates the center of low pres just east of Maine,
with several embedded s/w`s rotating around the circulation.
One s/w near the International Border is helping to enhance rain
showers just north of our fa, which wl continue to move south.
Overall, as we head into the evening hours expected less areal
coverage to showers and activity to become mostly confined to
the trrn and east side of the CPV. All this is covered well in
crnt pop/qpf grids. Temps wl slowly fall back into the upper 30s
mtn towns to upper 40s warmer valley cites. Very little change
from previous couple of nights. Rainfall wl be light and
generally < 0.10 through midnight.

Previous discussion below:
Widespread showers will continue through this afternoon and
evening as a shortwave trough rotates around the backside of low
pressure centered off to our northeast. While no thunderstorms
are anticipated, steep low level lapse rates will allow some
heavier showers to produce brief downpours. The activity should
decrease in both coverage and intensity once the sun starts to
set, with just a few isolated showers still hanging around by
midnight. Expect skies to remain mostly cloudy across much of
the area overnight, but any spots that are able to see some
clearing could well have patchy fog develop late tonight/early
Sunday morning. Lows will be similar to the past few nights, in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Sunday will start out a little on the cool side, but we should see
temperatures warm through the day, especially in areas that see more
sunshine. Clouds will be variable through the day, but overall trend
should be for more sunshine, especially away from the northern
mountains. Another weak shortwave and just a bit of instability from
daytime heating will bring increasing chances for scattered showers
during the afternoon and early evening, mainly over northern New
York where lapse rates will be steepest. Like today, some brief
downpours will be possible, but shallow nature of any instability
will preclude any thunderstorms. Unlike today, shower coverage will
be much less, scattered at worst, with areas from the Champlain
Valley eastward likely seeing just isolated showers. Any
precipitation will quickly wind down after sunset. Highs on Sunday
will be in the mid 50s to low 60s, with the St Lawrence Valley
perhaps getting up into the mid 60s. Lows Sunday night will be just
a touch warmer than what we`ve been experiencing lately as most
areas will remain in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 254 PM EDT Saturday...Some very weak shortwave energy looks to
slide from north to south across the forecast area on Monday, just
in time to make use of diminishing atmospheric moisture. This could
result in a few scattered to isolated showers, particularly across
the mountains where orographic lift may assist in the production of
precipitation. Probability of measurable precipitation will be
roughly 15-35% at times. Clouds will likely be clearing throughout
the day, making way for sunny skies by the evening, particularly in
the wider valleys. This will allow highs to rise into the 60s to
lower 70s, warmest in the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys.
Some modest instability will make a few rumbles of thunder possible
in any showers, especially those across northern New York.

Precipitation will quickly cut off Monday night, and we anticipate
clear skies for all, causing temperatures to drop into the 40s and
lower 50s. Though some light, persistent west to northwesterly winds
aloft will challenge the possibility, it`s looking like the kind of
night to have some patchy valley fog (especially in any areas that
get measurable rainfall during the day Monday) as surface high
pressure and upper level riding build into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 254 PM EDT Saturday...Dry weather and warmth is anticipated
through Wednesday thanks to surface and upper level ridging across
the Northeast. Temperatures will soar above seasonal normals Tuesday
and Wednesday in the 70s, and skies will be a mix of clouds and sun,
though leaning more towards sun than clouds. Tuesday night has a
lower chance of valley fog than Monday night, but the possibility is
there, though temperatures will fall only into the mid 40s to mid
50s. For the second half of the week, we`ll see vertically stacked
low pressure sliding from southwest to northeast across the Great
Lakes into Canada, returning chances of precipitation to the
forecast area. Currently looking like Friday afternoon will have the
highest chance of showers or even some thunderstorms. Model
agreement falls apart over the weekend, though models seem to agree
that there is the potential for measurable precipitation falling on
Saturday as well with ensembles projecting 50-80% chance of a tenth
of an inch or higher in 24 hours around that time period. Highs for
the late week will be seasonable in the upper 60s to mid 70s, and
lows will be in the mid 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Showers are likely to continue across the
region through 5Z but we don`t expect to see any visibility
reduction below 6SM given the very light nature of the showers. We
are currently seeing a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings and the
thought is we will see a steady deterioration in ceiling heights
over the next few hours as the nocturnal surface inversion
develops. Given the current dewpoint depressions of 4-7 degrees,
it seems likely that most places will see ceilings drop into
the 1200 to 2500 ft range while KEFK and KSLK will likely see a
period of IFR ceilings between 3Z-11Z given the tighter
dewpoint gradient. The lack of any appreciable clearing tonight
should preclude any fog formation and the latest satellite
imagery shows no signs of breaks in the cloud cover upstream of
the region. We will see conditions steadily improve through the
day on Sunday with VFR conditions developing everywhere by late
morning.


Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KPBG and KMPV both broke record low maximum temperatures for
5-23 based on preliminary high temperatures. Additional records
could be set today, 5-24, as well, especially at KMPV.


Low Max Temp Records
Date     KBTV     KPBG     KSLK     KMSS    KMPV
05-24  49|1928  49|1992  43|1917  51|1956  48|1956

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Taber
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Clay
CLIMATE...Team BTV