777
FXUS61 KBTV 101857
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
257 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably hot temperatures are expected to continue for the North
Country through Tuesday as high pressure builds over the region.
Highs in the 90s are expected for broader valleys with some
locations warming into the mid 90s by Tuesday. Conditions will
remain mainly dry through Tuesday before a front brings more
widespread thunderstorm chances, some possible severe, by mid week
and a relative cool down for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 249 PM EDT Sunday...Unseasonably warm to hot conditions
will persist Monday afternoon with highs ranging from the mid
80s to low/mid 90s. Low RH will keep the worst at bay allowing
temperatures to cool into the 60s during the overnight hours
while the tamping the heat index down a degree or so from the
high temperature. However, caution is advised for those without
adequate cooling for Monday as high temperatures reach 90-95
degrees with three days above 90 for some locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

* A Heat Advisory is in effect for Tuesday and Tuesday night in
  the St Lawrence Valley and portions of the northern Champlain
  Valley and northern Vermont.

As of 249 PM EDT Sunday...Heat will peak Tuesday with little
relief overnight into Wednesday. Highs in the mid 90s and
overnight lows around 70 degrees are anticipated for the St
Lawrence Valley and northern Champlain Valley. This will be the
most hazardous period after multiple 90+ degree days since heat
impacts are cumulative. Those with plans outdoors or without
access to air conditioning will be most susceptible to heat
illness and should have a plan to mitigate these conditions.
Elsewhere, temperatures will range in the upper 80s to low 90s
remaining uncomfortably warm.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 244 PM EDT Sunday...A weak cold front will attempt to dislodge
the persistent ridge that is responsible for our heat mid week. With
dry air ahead, moisture will be limited, though with modest forcing
along the boundary it may eke out a few showers and a thunderstorm
or two across northern New York. The better forcing and chances for
any stronger storms will be closer to the international border and
north of our region, closer to the actual low in Quebec. With the
meager front propagation, some locations may see a fifth straight
day of 90s, especially across the valleys and southern Vermont. The
front will break down late Wednesday afternoon across the region,
though it will help shunt the center of the ridge axis to the south
of our region, allowing for some cooler air to filter in from the
north by the end of the week. Highs Thursday and Friday will only be
in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows in the 50s,
providing some brief relief from the heat earlier in the week.
Ridging looks to build back in for the weekend with highs returning
back into the upper 80s with a slower moving potential front by the
weekends end.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...High pressure overhead will keep VFR conditions
through at least 05Z at all terminals. Winds will generally remain
variable through the daylight with the exception of MSS/PBG where
valley channeling and lake breeze influences, respectively could
lead to light southerly winds near 10 knots. Winds will become calm
overnight across all sites. Based on persistence from last night,
and being detached from recent rainfall, probabilities of fog are
low. Only MVFR to 5SM with mist is forecasted at SLK/EFK/MPV. MPV
will likely have fog around the terminal, but it may not drift to
the terminal, which was the case last night. There may be brief
periods of IFR visibilities, though they will be short-lived with
visibilities primarily in the MVFR category at SLK/MPV. Furthermore,
light winds just off the surface may add another limitation
overnight. Calm winds and clear skies look to continue for tomorrow.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record daily high temperatures are likely on Monday, August 11,
and Tuesday, August 12. Below are some of the records in
jeopardy of being broken:

Max Temp Records

August 11th - Forecast|Record (Year)
KBTV         KMPV        KMSS        KPBG        KSLK
             90|90(2016) 94|93(2016) 92|91(1970) 89|93(1944)

August 12th - Forecast|Record (Year)
KBTV         KMPV        KMSS        KPBG        KSLK
95|93(2002)  91|89(2021) 93|91(1988) 93|90(2007) 89|93(1944)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
     VTZ001-002-005-009-016-017.
NY...Heat Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
     NYZ026>028-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
CLIMATE...WFO BTV