771
FXUS61 KBTV 051127
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
727 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer conditions are expected over the rest of this weekend with
high temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to mid 90s on Sunday.
A cold front will shift south on Monday bringing higher chances for
showers and thunderstorms, followed by more seasonable
temperatures. The rest of the week will feature hit-or-miss,
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 142 AM EDT Saturday...Little weather activity is happening
today, other than increasing warmth. Temperatures will rise into the
80s, except some holdouts in the Northeast Kingdom that just miss
the 80 degree mark. Comfortable humidity should make this a perfect
summer weather day! South flow overnight will yield warm
temperatures, tonight. The broader valleys could remain above
70, while sheltered sections of the Adirondacks and eastern
Vermont will fall into the lower 60s.

Then, it becomes another short-lived outbreak of heat. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for the Champlain Valley due to heat and
humidity producing heat indices up to 98 F during the afternoon. Be
mindful of heat illnesses during outdoor recreation, drink plenty of
water, seek shade often and take several breaks.

As ridging continues to build on Sunday, 925mb temperatures climb
into the mid 20s C, which is supportive of upper 80s to mid 90s.
Fortunately, the quick build up means that we won`t yet have the
upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints in place. However, with temperatures
already as high as they are, we`ll very likely observe heat indices
in excess of 95 in the Champlain Valley. Outside that, though, the
probabilities appear somewhat lower. With the heat and humidity, we
should sufficiently destabilize to produce isolated to locally
scattered convection. The ridge axis is still building overhead. So
there`s not much in the way of forcing or upward motion. Mostly
garden variety activity should take place. By Sunday night, a
frontal axis will approach the region and an increasing low-level
jet should support isentropic ascent. Showers will increase along
the international border, and there`s enough elevated instability
that there could still be some thunder. With this, expect
overnight/Monday morning temperatures to be in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 142 AM EDT Saturday...There`s some forecast uncertainty with
how a cold front shifts south on Monday. Ensemble temperature spread
is quite high. This could be a result of differences depicting
the ridging upstream from current Tropical Depression 3. I`ve
been on the receiving end of a tropical system slowing a front
down and having to make larger adjustments as a result. At this
time, model consensus appears relatively good with a frontal
passage over the latter half of Monday. This means there will be
continued heat and humidity, especially over Vermont, while the
international border and much of northern New York remains in
cloud and begins to pick up a northwest wind during the
afternoon keeping things closer to 80. However, there could be
some wiggle room as we approach Monday afternoon. A sluggish
front with 2" PWATs will need to be watched. However, 500mb flow
will be relatively fast for this time of year at 40-45 knots.
This will help keep activity moving, but this means that we
will have about 35 knots of shear present while we develop about
1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE potentially along a sharp thermal
boundary, which would be enough to allow for some organized
convection. We`ll monitor closely.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 142 AM EDT Saturday...Past Monday night, although temperatures
will be cooler, we don`t completely remove the air mass. So we`ll be
slightly above normal in terms of temperatures and humidity. It
doesn`t appear likely we`ll see any oppressive heat at the least.
This does mean we`ll likely see isolated to scattered showers
and storms during the afternoon for the remainder of the week,
though. If picking any day that`s likely to be the driest, it
appears Tuesday and Wednesday will need some time to recover
moisture behind the frontal boundary. Beyond that, various
models disagree on the amplitude, and thus the speed, of the
overall weather pattern as another system approaches from the
west over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail across all
terminals for the next 24 hours, with just some high clouds and
partly clear skies expected. Dry conditions are expected
throughout the day, although a shower may be possible across
northern Vermont. Winds are currently light and variable this
morning, become more southerly throughout the morning, generally
between 5 to 10 knots. A period of LLWS will be possible across
most terminals after 06Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for VTZ001-002-005-
     009-011.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Kremer