221
FXUS61 KBTV 150531
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
131 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures and increasing humidity levels will create
conditions favorable for scattered showers and thunderstorms for
late week into the weekend. The greatest potential for precipitation
will be late Friday and again on Saturday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s with lows holding
in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 121 AM EDT Thursday...Minimal changes needed for this
update, with a few pop-up showers moving through the region at
this hour. Temperatures have fallen into the 60s for most
areas.

Previous discussion...GOES-19 shows a rather messy and
complex mid/upper lvl pattern acrs the eastern CONUS, with
sharp/narrow ridge over northern New England and deep negatively
tilted trof over the Ohio Valley. This high amplified omega
type blocking pattern wl be slow to break down, allowing us for
limited threats for showers tonight into Thurs. As we move into
Thurs aftn and evening, the fcst challenge becomes areal
coverage of showers and potential rumbles of thunder.

As mid/upper lvl trof slowly approach our cwa tonight, moisture in
the 700 to 300mb layer wl continue to increase from south to north.
In addition, increasing low level southeast flow wl continue to
advect Atlantic moisture toward our southern/eastern VT cwa tonight
with lowering cigs likely after midnight, especially eastern side of
the southern Greens. Based on aggregated cumulus field, weak
instability has developed over the SLV/Dacks, where a pop up shower
is possible, but forcing/instability is minimal, so cover wl be
limited. Continue with schc/low chc pops. Lows very similar to last
night with values in the upper 40s to near 60F.

Thursday the mid/upper lvl trof acrs the Ohio Valley shifts slowly
toward central/eastern PA, while forcing is very weak acrs our cwa.
Instability is slightly better, with the GFS showing the best sfc
based CAPE over the SLV of 600 to 1000 J/kg, while the NAM3KM shows
higher instability with values in 800 to 1500 J/kg, with highest
values over the CPV. Deep layer shear is weak with values <20 knots.
Even with the greater instability NAM3KM is very quiet with regards
to progged composite reflectivity, with GFS slightly more robust
with qpf. Given the lack of forcing and limited sfc convergence, I
have kept pops in the schc/ low chc range (20-35%) with highest
values over the Dacks into the CPV. Highs very similar to today with
many areas in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Thurs night is quiet with
any lingering showers dissipating as the sunset. Lows once again in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 347 PM EDT Wednesday...Friday and Friday night will feature
warm and unsettled weather. Southerly flow on Friday will push
temperatures into the lower 80s in parts of our area with upper 70s
elsewhere. A frontal system crosses our area and scattered showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated for Friday afternoon into the
evening, lingering into the first part of the overnight. Overnight
lows will also be warm Friday night, only dipping into the 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 347 PM EDT Wednesday...Showery weather will continue into the
weekend as an upper level low crosses our area. It`s a little tough
to pinpoint timing for the showers, but additional showers are
expected on both Saturday and Sunday. Thunder is looking a bit less
likely for Saturday than on Friday, but will reevaluate as we get
closer to the weekend. Surface and upper level ridging will build
back over the region for early next week, and cooler and drier
weather will return.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z FRIDAY...VFR conditions continue to prevail across
the region for the next few hours. Towards 09Z, ceilings may
trend towards MVFR at several terminals as southerly flow
continues to bring increased moisture into the region. MVFR
conditions are most likely at KMPV and KSLK, with chances at
KRUT and KMSS as well. Any MVFR ceilings that do develop will
linger for a few hours, with all terminals expected to trend
back to VFR by 18Z. A few spot showers may be possible across
the region, particularly over the next couple of hours, but
probabilities were too low to include in the forecast and little
to no impact is expected with any showers that do develop. Light
to calm southerly winds are expected overnight, increasing
slightly by the afternoon and continuing throughout most of the
TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Kremer