418
FXUS61 KBTV 211109
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
709 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stretch of dry weather will continue into the weekend as high
pressure builds into the region, with temperatures gradually warming
each day. A frontal system is anticipated to move through the region
Sunday bringing widespread chances of rain and a few thunderstorms
followed by lingering shower chances and cooler temperatures next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 142 AM EDT Thursday...Another dry day with seasonable
temperatures is expected today as high pressure continues to build
into the region. High temperatures this afternoon will climb into
the 70s to around 80, with plenty of sunshine to make for a pleasant
afternoon. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the 40s to mid
50s with clear skies allowing for better radiational cooling. Some
patchy fog development possible in the more favorable river valleys
and sheltered areas, although lack of moisture may limit this
potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 142 AM EDT Thursday...The stretch of dry and pleasant weather
will continue into the weekend, as high pressure remains the
dominant weather feature across the region. Temperatures will warm a
few degrees each day, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on
Friday and low to mid 80s for Saturday. Plenty of sunshine is
expected for Friday, with increasing clouds expected for Saturday
ahead of the next weather system approaching. Another night of
overnight lows in the 40s and 50s is expected Friday night under the
ridging across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 142 AM EDT Thursday...Beneficial rain will be in the forecast
Saturday night through much of the extended. A slow moving front
will gradually shift east with deep channeled southwest flow between
an anomalous upper low across James Bay while strong Atlantic
ridging is in place. With PWATs running about 150-175% of normal,
modest instability, and synoptic scale forcing for ascent, we should
achieve needed rain. Fortunately, the configuration of flow should
limit training, though a few areas could get multiple rounds as
multiple batches of moisture and embedded shortwaves lift overhead
through confluence overhead. Given recent dryness, some areas need
to achieve about 2" or more in an hour and 3" or more in 6 hours to
reach flash flood guidance based on the latest analysis from the
Northeast River Forecast Center. There will also be several
additional dry days between now and Sunday/Monday. So this rain will
be much needed. Despite the favorable line up of ingredients, most
guidance feature muted precipitation totals, mainly of about
0.50-0.75" of rain with wetter scenarios ranging around 1.00-1.50"
amongst various ensemble suites. We`ll take what we can get, because
we certainly need the rain.

As noted, Sunday will likely be breezy ahead of precipitation.
Channeled flow will allow the development of a 25 to 35 knots
southwesterly low-level jet. Mixing conditions will be favorable,
with a modest warm layer noted on GFS forecast soundings around
ridge tops. So gusty 20 to 30 mph winds will be likely.

Assessing thunderstorm potential, there has been little change.
Shear values across the region will range between 35 to 45 knots
between 0-6km, and it remains a matter of instability. On Sunday,
higher values will likely be present across northern New York due to
a warm nose remaining present across much of Vermont. On Monday,
instability will favor Vermont where better moisture remains. Values
don`t appear overly high, mainly ranging between 500-1000 J/kg. With
such fast flow and marginal vertical velocities, shear may inhibit
thunderstorm activity. Simulated satellite and lightning forecast
products are not highlighting much activity, and we`ll see how it
pans out as we get in the region of higher resolution modeling.

The rest of the forecast remains cool and breezy with embedded
shortwaves over a large scale East Coast trough. This will keep
temperatures below normal with shower chances continuing much of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Valley fog has settled in eastern Vermont,
but failed to develop over northern New York. Fog should persist
at KMPV through roughly 13z before lifting. Skies will remain
mostly clear today with winds trending east to northeasterly
over much of the region, though terrain influences may result in
some variability. Winds speeds will be about 4 to 9 knots, and
then become light and variable or terrain driven after 00-02z.
Fog is likely again for KMPV after 07z Friday.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Haynes