Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
079 FXUS64 KBRO 110758 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 258 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Low pressure works into the Southern Plains by mid-week, gradually strengthening the pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast into Wednesday, increasing southerly winds. Expect generally comfortable conditions today with abundant sunshine and near normal temperatures for early to mid March. Much warmer temperatures arrive on Wednesday with a stronger southerly breeze. Fire weather concerns remain limited both today and tomorrow for either the lack of 20 foot wind speeds or RH values just above criteria for any Fire Danger Statements. Fuels remain cured and dry to critically dry. Patchy fog may develop across the ranchlands early this morning and late tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 A weak upper level ridge looks to move into the Southern Plains Thursday, before being replaced by an upper level trough traversing the Central US Friday and Saturday. As this trough moves across the Plains, it will likely drive a cold front south, moving through the CWA late Friday into early Saturday. Upper level ridging looks to begin working back into the Central US Monday. A gradual warming trend is expected to continue Thursday and Friday as southerly winds and mostly sunny skies support afternoon high temperatures in the mid 90s Thursday and upper 90s to just above 100 on Friday. With these warmer temperatures, decreasing relative humidity values are expected, with afternoon min relative humidity values ranging from the teens to around 30% Thursday and single digits to around 20% across most of the area Friday. Winds are expected to shift to the northwest behind the frontal passage Friday night and Saturday morning, as a slightly cooler and drier air mass moves into the region. High temperatures behind the front are expected to remain in the 80s Saturday through Monday. With the drier air behind the front, afternoon min relative humidity values are expected to remain in the single digits to teens across all of Deep South Texas except for the immediate coast Saturday and Sunday. As winds shift back to the southeast on Monday some moisture is expected to return to the area, however afternoon relative humidity values will still likely be below 30% everywhere except the coast. With these warm temperatures and low relative humidity values there will be some concern for elevated fire weather conditions daily through the period. However, wind speeds look to remain just below criteria for Fire Danger Statements or Red Flag Warnings through most of the period. The highest probabilities for winds reaching criteria ( 15 MPH gusting to 25 MPH) occur on Saturday (30-50%) and Monday (40-60%). Based on the forecast relative humidity values for these days, this could support a Red Flag Warning Saturday and a Fire Danger Statement Monday if these wind speeds are reached. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Through 00z Wednesday....VFR conditions with plenty of sunshine are expected to prevail through the entire 00z TAF cycle as high pressure remains dominant over the area. Winds will be out of the east if not light and variable with magnitudes between 5-10 kts through this evening/tonight. On Tuesday, winds will shift out of the south-southeast 10-15 kts with gusts as high as 20 kts or so. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Today through Wednesday...Low pressure deepens across the Southern Plains into mid-week, increasing southerly winds across the lower Texas coast. Expect generally favorable marine conditions today with increasing winds and building seas on Wednesday. SCEC conditions are possible across all coastal waters on Wednesday. Wednesday night through Monday...Pressure gradients will likely tighten Friday ahead of a cold front that looks to move through the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines may be needed for all of the Coastal Waters Friday as wind speeds are forecast to reach 15-20 kts. Otherwise, generally favorable marine conditions are expected through the period. Light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate seas are expected Thursday. Behind the front, light to moderate northerly winds and slight to moderate seas are expected to persist through the remainder of the weekend with winds becoming easterly to southeasterly Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 64 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 83 60 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 86 64 96 65 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 88 61 97 59 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 63 73 62 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 61 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....60-BE AVIATION...56