859
FXUS64 KBRO 172317 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
617 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

The upper-level ridge over the central US will shift westward
over the next couple of days. This will allow an upper level
trough to slowly shift westward into eastern Texas by mid week.
While subsidence associated with the ridge will generally suppress
convection early in the week, rain chances will begin to increase
Tuesday and continue to increase into next weekend. A low
(20-30%) chance for daily showers and thunderstorms along the sea
breeze will begin Tuesday and continue through the forecast
period, with rain chances increasing to 30-40% next weekend.

High temperatures look to remain in the upper 90s to low 100s
through much of the week. Increased cloud cover late in the week
could limit high temperatures to the upper 90s across the area.
Heat index values will likely remain below Heat Advisory criteria
through the week, they some areas may briefly reach 110-112.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

East-southeasterly winds are expected to become light and variable
beyond sunset and overnight tonight. Although guidance is only
indicating a low (10-20%) chance of reduced visibility from fog
tonight, have decided to include a FM group at KHRL for MVFR
visibility by 08 Z, as well as a TEMPO for the potential of brief
IFR vis. between 10-12 Z, due to high levels of humidity and light
winds. A brief period of MVFR is possible at KMFE as well, but
probabilities and confidence are too low to include at this time.
Conditions improve to VFR by around 12/13 Z Monday and moderate
east-southeasterly winds return by Monday afternoon to around
10-15 knots, gusting to near 18-22 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Favorable marine conditions are expected to continue through the
period. Light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight seas will
likely continue through the next week. Daily 20-30% chances for
showers and thunderstorms over the waters will return Tuesday and
continue through the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  96  78  97 /   0  10   0  20
HARLINGEN               75  97  74  97 /   0  10   0  20
MCALLEN                 78 102  78 101 /   0  10   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         77 102  76 103 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  89  80  89 /   0  10   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  92  77  92 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...65-Irish