211
FXUS64 KBRO 141725
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Slightly above normal temperatures continue through the forecast
period.

 - Low rain chances (around 20% or less) expected today, with
generally rain-free conditions returning this weekend into next week.

 - The combination of breezy and mostly dry weather coinciding with
low afternoon minimum relative humidity values brings a continued
risk of fire weather into next week.

 - Elevated risk of rip currents at the local beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Hot temperatures will continue across Deep South Texas through
the forecast period with generally rain free conditions under
upper level ridging. Temperatures each day will rise into the
upper 90s to low 100s with head indices between 105-110F
expected. While we look to remain just shy of Heat Advisory
criteria each day, a few locations may briefly exceed 111F. Will
continue to monitor for the need of Heat Advisories. There is a
Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk every
afternoon into next week.

While dry conditions will prevail, there does remain a low chance
(less than 20%) of an isolated shower or thunderstorm through
early this evening, mainly along the sea breeze. Can not rule out
any isolated sea breeze activity through the remainder of the
period.

The combination of breezy conditions, lower RH values, and
abnormally dry conditions, there will be the potential for rapid
wildfire spread into next week. While we will look to fall shy of
and Red Flag Warnings or Fire Danger Statements, outdoor burning
is not recommended.

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues tonight
through Saturday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all aerodromes. Breezy
southeasterly winds will be around 20 kts today with gusts up to
30 kts. Wind will decrease later this evening and overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

An enhanced pressure gradient along the immediate coast will result
in periodic daily Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions along
the Laguna Madre. Otherwise, expect moderate southeasterly winds
with 2 to 4 ft seas and 5 to 6 second periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             82  96  80  96 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN               79  99  77  98 /   0   0  10  20
MCALLEN                 82 103  81 102 /   0   0   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         80 103  78 102 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  89  81  89 /   0   0  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  95  79  94 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68-AM
LONG TERM....68-AM
AVIATION...68-AM