160
FXUS64 KBRO 100537 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1237 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

* Isolated showers will persist through Friday morning as rain
  chances/trends continue to decrease.

* Following a weak cool fropa, drier air and weather conditions
  return Friday evening and persist through next Friday.

* Temperatures will continue to run slightly above normal levels
  through next Friday.

* A High Risk for Rip Currents and a Coastal Flood Advisory
  remains in effect till 7 AM CDT Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Latest sfc analysis reveals a weak cool front over the Gulf Waters
adjacent to the border of Kenedy County. Multiple clusters of
showers were also taking place over the Gulf Waters with much of
the activity well to our south over Northeastern Mexico. Through
Friday morning, expect for isolated showers to be around with
trends decreasing in time as the cool front continues to slowly
shift southward through Deep South Texas and adjacent Gulf Waters.

Drier air and weather conditions return Friday afternoon/evening
following the cool fropa as mid-upper ridging builds over the region
and sfc high pressure increases its influence over the area. Drier
air and weather conditions are expected to then persist through the
rest of the forecast period or through next Friday.

East to northeast winds will continue breezy on Friday with speeds
between 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph, thanks to a continued
enhanced pressure gradient from a broad and anomalously strong high
pressure system over the Northeast U.S.

With the normal high temperature at Brownsville/South Padre Island
International Airport (KBRO), anomalies through next Friday will
continue to run slightly warmer than normal levels. Overnight lows
will be in the 60s and 70s through the forecast period.

Finally, a Coastal Flood Advisory and a High Risk for Rip Currents
are in effect till 7 AM CDT Friday morning based on observations
seen from webcams along the South Padre Island beaches earlier and
observations/forecasts from the SPI Brazos Santiago Station.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the 06Z TAF cycle.
Showers and thunderstorms traveling westward are popping up over
the Gulf, and are expected to move inland through the morning. Low
confidence in exact timing of any showers over a specific site,
however, most likely timing of impacts are denoted by PROB30s
(BRO/HRL between 10Z to 17Z, MFE 14Z to 20Z). Some hi-res
guidance suggests showers will continue through the afternoon (to
00Z). Any shower or storm that passes over an airfield has
potential to bring gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain reducing
visibility.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

An enhanced pressure gradient from a broad and strong sfc high
pressure system over the Northeast U.S. will continue to result in
elevated east-northeast winds and seas with wave heights between
3-6 feet (SCEC conditions) through Friday evening. Marine conditions
will begin to improve over the weekend as winds relax resulting in
wave heights between 2-4 feet. Favorable marine conditions will
continue through next week with wave heights between 2-4 feet on
light to moderate east-southeast winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  71  89  69 /  40   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               91  68  91  64 /  40   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 93  70  94  67 /  40   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  65  93  65 /  40   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      86  78  85  77 /  30   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  72  87  69 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-
     454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma
LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma
AVIATION...69-HK