498
FXUS64 KBRO 061112 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
612 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

* Low to medium (20-60%) chances for isolated to scattered showers
  and thunderstorms are expected each day beginning on Tuesday.

* Warmer than normal temperatures are expected to persist through
  next weekend.

* A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through Monday
  evening along the Lower Texas Coast beaches.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

The main focus through the week ahead will focus on the increasing
prospects for showers and thunderstorms as the weather pattern
potentially becomes a bit more unsettled. Multiple forecast
models/ensembles are suggesting an increase in moisture and warm
air advection (WAA) from the Gulf. Precipitable water (PWAT)
values which have been rather low of late (relative to prior
weeks) are expected to increase just slightly from 1.30-1.50" on
Monday to 1.60- 1.90" by Tuesday and through the remainder of the
week ahead. This influx of moisture coupled with a nearby weak
shortwave trough, perturbations aloft, and sfc-based differential
heating could be sufficient enough to support a conditionally
unstable/buoyant environment. Factor in some convergence along the
sea breeze and the risk for showers and showers and thunderstorms
are certainly plausible. Much will depend on how strong the lift
will be from the seabreeze and potential outflow boundaries from
nearby storms.

Right now, we have low-medium (20-40%) chances beginning on
Tuesday (highest chances closer to the coast and along the RGV).
By Wednesday and Thursday, we have medium (30-60%) chances
developing with categorical chances over the Lower-Mid Rio Grande
Valley into SPI and the Gulf Waters. By Friday, chances decrease
to low-medium (20-50%) with the highest chances closer to the
coast and along the RGV.

Temperature anomalies will continue to run warmer than normal,
courtesy of a 588-591 dam heat ridge in place overhead. This feature
will generate daily daytime highs in the low to mid 90s through much
of the week ahead. Overnight lows will be in the 60s and 70s with
60s found across parts of the Northern Ranchlands and occurring
mainly late week into early next week (due to clearing skies and
increased radiational cooling).

Finally, a Coastal Flood Statement continues through Monday evening
based on observations seen from webcams along the South Padre Island
beaches earlier and observations/forecasts from the SPI Brazos
Santiago Station. The combination of long-period swell, proximity
to the full moon, and associated astronomical high tides will
result in narrow beaches near high tide cycles. High tide is
expected at 2:46 AM CDT Monday morning and again at 3:33 PM CDT
Monday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

The main focus through the week ahead will focus on the increasing
prospects for showers and thunderstorms as the weather pattern
potentially becomes a bit more unsettled. Multiple forecast
models/ensembles are suggesting an increase in moisture and warm
air advection (WAA) from the Gulf. Precipitable water (PWAT)
values which have been rather low of late (relative to prior
weeks) are expected to increase just slightly from 1.30-1.50" on
Monday to 1.60- 1.90" by Tuesday and through the remainder of the
week ahead. This influx of moisture coupled with a nearby weak
shortwave trough, perturbations aloft, and sfc-based differential
heating could be sufficient enough to support a conditionally
unstable/buoyant environment. Factor in some convergence along the
sea breeze and the risk for showers and showers and thunderstorms
are certainly plausible. Much will depend on how strong the lift
will be from the seabreeze and potential outflow boundaries from
nearby storms.

Right now, we have low-medium (20-40%) chances beginning on
Tuesday (highest chances closer to the coast and along the RGV).
By Wednesday and Thursday, we have medium (30-60%) chances
developing with categorical chances over the Lower-Mid Rio Grande
Valley into SPI and the Gulf Waters. By Friday, chances decrease
to low-medium (20-50%) with the highest chances closer to the
coast and along the RGV.

Temperature anomalies will continue to run warmer than normal,
courtesy of a 588-591 dam heat ridge in place overhead. This feature
will generate daily daytime highs in the low to mid 90s through much
of the week ahead. Overnight lows will be in the 60s and 70s with
60s found across parts of the Northern Ranchlands and occurring
mainly late week into early next week (due to clearing skies and
increased radiational cooling).

Finally, a Coastal Flood Statement continues through Monday evening
based on observations seen from webcams along the South Padre Island
beaches earlier and observations/forecasts from the SPI Brazos
Santiago Station. The combination of long-period swell, proximity
to the full moon, and associated astronomical high tides will
result in narrow beaches near high tide cycles. High tide is
expected at 2:46 AM CDT Monday morning and again at 3:33 PM CDT
Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
a ESE breeze this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas are expected
through the forecast period, with 3-5 ft seas developing by
Wednesday and persisting through the weekend, before decreasing to
2-4 ft by early next week. Daily low to medium (20-60%) rain
chances return by Tuesday and continue throughout the week.
Locally enhanced winds and seas are likely within any showers or
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  76  92  76 /  10  10  40  40
HARLINGEN               95  73  93  73 /  10  10  40  20
MCALLEN                 99  77  97  77 /   0  10  40  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         99  74  97  73 /   0  10  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  80  87  81 /  10  10  40  40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     91  75  89  76 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma
LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma
AVIATION...56-Hallman