915
FXUS64 KBRO 170520
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1220 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Heat is likely to remain the main focus of the forecast into the
beginning of this upcoming week as a mid-level high pressure over
eastern Texas gradually slips north of our region Sunday night,
moving west-northwestward and over the Four Corners by Tuesday.
Resulting subsidence aloft is expected to suppress probabilities of
afternoon convection to less than 15% through Monday. As the high
moves further northwestward, mid-level troughing over the Gulf
extends to eastern and southern Texas, increasing probabilities from
a low (20%) chance on Tuesday afternoon to a low-medium to likely
(30-50%) chance each afternoon beginning Wednesday and lasting
through the weekend as near average PWAT values trend upward to
near and above average (> 2.0 inches). Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to be diurnally driven along the seabreeze
boundaries, occurring late morning into the afternoon hours, with
the highest probabilities near and east of US-281. Convection is
likely to be brief in nature, though able to produce heavy rain,
frequent lightning and stronger gusts.

Near to slightly above average highs continue into Wednesday, with
upper 90`s across inland portions along and east of I-69 E while
nearly widespread lower 100`s continue to the west. As clouds
increase into Wednesday and Thursday, most of deep south Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley are likely to range from the mid to upper
90`s. Mid 80`s to lower 90`s continue for the island and coastal
areas, respectively. Overnight lows in the 70`s inland and lower
80`s near the coast persist. Mostly moderate (level 2/4), with
pockets of major (level 3/4), heat risks maintain into Monday before
ranging from minor (level 1/4) to moderate Tuesday and onward.
Afternoon heat indices remain between 100-110 degF, with a few
locations possibly surpassing 110 degF for a brief period of time on
Sunday and Monday for portions of the coastal counties and near the
Rio Grande in the mid and upper Rio Grande Valley, though likely
keeping beneath SPS criteria.

A low risk of rip currents continues tonight and through the
day Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Through 06z Monday.....Flying conditions will mainly be VFR through
the 06z TAF period. There could be some MVFR low stratus around,
particularly during the overnight hours into the morning due to the
copious amounts of low level moisture left behind from recent rains
and lighter winds. Can`t rule out the low, yet non-zero probability
for some mist/fog developing as well overnight into the morning
hours for the same reasons described above.

Winds will continue out of the southeast 5-15 kts through the 06z
TAF period. Winds could gust between 20-25 kts during the afternoon
hours before waning later in the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate (2-3
feet) seas become light to gentle, and variable at times, with
slight (1-2 feet) seas by Monday. Showers and thunderstorms increase
over the eastern portions of the offshore (20-40 nm) Gulf waters on
Tuesday, becoming a daily low to medium (20-40%) chance across all
lower Texas coastal waters by Wednesday. Heavy rain, frequent
lightning and stronger winds are possible in the strongest of
convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             96  79  96  78 /  10   0  10   0
HARLINGEN               98  75  98  74 /  10   0  10   0
MCALLEN                101  78 102  78 /  10   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        103  77 103  76 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  81  88  81 /  10   0  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  78  93  77 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma