946
FXUS64 KBRO 040330
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1030 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

High pressure across the Gulf continues to build into the weekend,
with drier air keeping most Independence Day celebrations rain-
free. Some CAMs increase the chance for thunderstorms in the
evening near Zapata County and across portions of the ranchlands
on Saturday, with a pocket of moisture and increased instability
across the brush country. Otherwise, expect near normal highs and
lows. The humidity will help drive a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat
Risk across the RGV on Independence Day and Saturday.

With it being a holiday weekend, nice weather, and a very
borderline rip current situation due to wave heights around 3 ft
and swell period at times reaching above 5 seconds, will maintain
a moderate rip current risk into Saturday morning for some
additional awareness.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The mid-level ridge pivots back across the Desert SW into next
week, allowing weak 500mb low pressure to nestle along the lower
Texas coast and some low level moisture to bring back some rain
chances. Above normal PWATs return through Wednesday, increasing
POPs each afternoon towards 20 percent, mainly along the sea
breeze, especially Monday and Tuesday. Drier air arrives by late
week as high pressure briefly builds again. Expect near to
slightly above normal temperatures through mid week, with above
normal temperatures by late week. Minor (level 1 of 4) to briefly
Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk is expected daily.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected to give way to MVFR late this evening
and continue into Friday morning before VFR ceilings return.
Breezy southeasterly winds are expected on Independence Day, with
gusts to nearly 30 kts possible during the afternoon and early
evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Now through Next Friday...Surface high pressure generally holds
across the Western Gulf with light to briefly moderate
southeasterly winds through the forecast period, allowing seas to
gradually diminish by the weekend and remain favorable through
Friday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms offshore taper off
tonight and return again Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  91  79  90 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               76  93  76  92 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 78  94  78  93 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  93  76  91 /   0  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  86  79  86 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  90  77  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...56-Hallman