966
FXUS64 KBRO 221129 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
529 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

The BRO CWFA will remain on the northeast periphery of 500 mb
high pressure that will remain centered just west of the Baja
Peninsula. A northwest-to-southeast flow associated with the mid-
level high will produce dry weather for Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley through the period.

Meanwhile, surface high pressure easing towards the east will allow
an onshore flow to redevelop, persist, and intensify. Overnight low
and daytime high temperatures will gradually warm, with values at
well above normal levels for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

The long term forecast period will be a pleasant and mostly stable
period along with being rain free as well. With a mid-level ridge
being the main influence for the weather over Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley for the long term forecast period and even
some zonal flow aloft, more aloft dry air is expected to move into
the area. Thus, the dry and stable air aloft will greatly hinder any
chance of rain development for the long term forecast period. Also
with the influence of the mid-level ridge in place, the area will
see a summer-like weather pattern resulting in higher than normal
temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with low
temperatures in the 60s through the period.

Meanwhile, on the surface, southeasterly to southerly winds are
expected to persist through the period each day. While the winds are
expected to be generally light each day, however by Sunday the
pressure gradient is expected to tighten as a low pressure system
interacts with high pressure over the Southeast. Around mid to late
week, a upper-level trough will push across the Southeast and bring
a front towards the area. The current trend in the models still
shows a large difference of in timing for the front. Currently the
GFS brings the front in sooner and the ECMWF is much later. However,
based on the current model analysis the front does not seem to have
much of an impact on the temperatures in the long term forecast
period. Further shifts will need to continue to monitor the forecast
trends to see how the model trends continue to evolve with this
event along with any changes for the potential impacts from this
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with
light winds and clear skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Today through Saturday...Buoy 42020 reported southwest winds
around 2 knots gusting to around 6 knots with seas slightly under
2.5 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 1:50 CST/7:50 UTC.
Generally light winds and low seas will prevail along the Lower
Texas Coast through the period courtesy of high pressure over the
western Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and
Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be needed.

Saturday Night through Thursday...Mostly favorable conditions with
light to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds and low to
moderate seas. The main exceptions to this pattern will be on Sunday
and Thursday as both days the pressure gradient is expected to
tighten, which will result in stronger southeasterly winds that will
mostly likely require Small Craft Exercise Caution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  61  82  68 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               80  56  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 83  59  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         80  56  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      76  71  78  74 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  61  81  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$