777
FXUS64 KBRO 042345 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
645 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

High pressure over the Gulf continues to maintain mostly dry
conditions. There is a low chance of precip this evening into
tonight in western counties (Zapata, Starr, Jim Hogg) as convection
to the north brushes the CWA. A similarly low chance of precip on
Saturday (<15%) for northwestern portions of the CWA. Breezy winds
today and tomorrow along the coast and into mid-upper RGV with gusts
up to 25 mph possible; no concern for wind advy, but important to
keep in mind for Independence Day celebrations into this evening.

Despite below average high temperatures in the low 90s, a Moderate
Risk (Level 2 of 4) of heat-related impacts persists tomorrow as
"feels like" temperatures climb into the triple digits, up to mid-
100s, primarily east of US Hwy 281. Lows overnight are seasonable in
the mid to upper 70s.

At local beaches, a Moderate Risk of rip currents is in place
through at least Saturday morning with elevated winds and swell.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

High pressure building over the desert SW will allow for moisture to
return into the region. There exists a chance each afternoon,
especially early in the long term, for showers along the coast
associated with the sea breeze.

Come midweek, high pressure building over South Central TX will
bring subsidence and leave little room for precip the remainder of
the period. Subsidence and increased sunshine may the bring
temperatures to or above normal, with at least a Minor Risk (Level 1
of 4) of heat related impacts expected through the long term.
Highs in the 90s and lows in the mid-upper 70s will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF
period with breezy southeasterly winds occasionally gusting
towards 30 kts. Brief MVFR ceilings are possible late tonight,
especially near BRO through just after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Tonight through next Friday...Gusty, moderate southeasterly winds
are maintaining seas of 3-4 ft. Seas are expected to lessen
overnight as winds lighten up, however, breezy (gusts around 20
kts) conditions return tomorrow. There is a low chance (10-20%) of
showers in the northern Gulf waters tomorrow. Sunday, high
pressure over the region settles in and allows for gentle to
moderate southeasterly flow and slight seas. Low chance of precip
returns early next week as an inverted trough approaches from the
Gulf, but should be overtaken by high pressure over TX midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  90  78  91 /   0  10   0  10
HARLINGEN               77  91  75  92 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 79  92  78  93 /   0  10   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  91  76  92 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  86  79  86 /   0  10   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  88  77  89 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...56-Hallman