486
FXUS64 KBRO 212323
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
523 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1249 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Pleasant weather conditions will prevail through the short term
period across Deep South Texas as surface high pressure continues to
influence the region. Expect light and variable winds through Friday
morning, before gradual shift to the east and southeast Friday
afternoon and night. The combination of clear skies and light winds
will yield another night of efficient radiational cooling processes
tonight, so I have opted to trend closer to the NBM 50th percentile
to lower minimum temperatures around 1-4 degrees across the region.
The return of low level southeasterly flow on Friday will result in
a slightly warmer day and night, with highs ranging from the mid to
upper 70s along the immediate coast to low to mid 80s further
inland. Low temperatures Friday night will range from the low 50s
across the Northern Ranchlands to around 60 degrees across the Rio
Grande Valley due to the slight uptick in moisture content.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1249 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

A quiet pattern will persist over a majority of the long term. As
surface ridging shifts east this weekend, south-southeasterly
flow will increase, allowing temperatures and moisture content to
rise. Over the weekend and into early next week, high and low
temperatures are likely to be well above normal.

A shift in the dominant pattern is expected mid/late next week,
however, various global ensembles disagree on a potential mid-level
troughs location and timing. GEFS is anticipating this trough
over the TX panhandle Wednesday, while European ensemble guidance
expects the movement to be slower by a day or two. Coastal
showers and increased winds mid-week are possible with this
disturbance, but there is a week before this is expected to
influence the area, so it will continue to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Winds are
expected to be light and variable overnight, and may become calm
at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1249 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Tonight through Friday night...Favorable marine conditions will
prevail with light to moderate winds and low seas. North to
northeast winds will gradually shift to the east and southeast
through the period.

Saturday through Thursday...Southerly flow will increase late
Saturday into Sunday, becoming a moderate to fresh breeze Sunday
night. Small Craft Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisories
may be necessary Sunday. Winds Monday trough midweek are expected
to remain moderate out of the south/southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             54  80  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               50  81  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 53  83  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         48  81  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      66  75  70  79 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     55  78  60  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...55-MM