835
FXUS64 KBRO 011057 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
557 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Wet, unsettled conditions continue through the short term. Today,
showers are likely (60-80%) with a chance of thunderstorms as
moisture continues to surge north into Deep South Texas. The
chance for showers decreases to low (20-30%) overnight and through
Wednesday. PWAT values of 2.09" from the 00Z sounding indicate
plenty of moisture available and may allow for heavy rain rates,
which will lead to ponding on roads and poor drainage areas.
Moisture/PW will remain greater than the 90th percentile of
climatology for the short term. Within thunderstorms, possible
hazards include wind gusts up to 40 mph, heavy rainfall, and
lightning.

High temperatures below normal with highs in the 80s today and up to
low 90s Wednesday. The anomalously high moisture leaves apparent
temperatures in the 90s to around 100 by midweek. Seasonable low
temperatures in the 70s provide little relief.

At the local beaches, increased wave heights maintains a Moderate
Risk of rip currents.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Building high pressure over the central US will decrease rain
chances from low (10-20%) to almost none into the holiday weekend.
While PoPs decrease, temperatures are expected to increase as cloud
cover clears. Near normal temperatures in the 90s (approaching 100
in the mid-upper Valley) return for the weekend, with apparent
temperatures ranging from 100 to 110 across most of the CWA each
afternoon. Expect a mostly dry, hot 4th of July weekend - be sure
to practice heat safety and Look before you Lock.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Minor adjustments were made to the previous issuance of TAFs.
Overall, MVFR to VFR continues to be expected through the next 24
hours. Convection is affecting MFE right now, and will affect all
of the aerodromes as the day progresses. In fact, the TEMPO in the
TAFs for convection continues to be based on the HRRR model.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Moderate to gentle southeasterly winds will prevail over the period.
Moderate seas today will gradually decrease to slight by midweek,
with generally favorable conditions for the remainder of the period.
High chance (around 70%) of rain and thunderstorms are possible
today, decreasing to low (10-20%) Tuesday night through Thursday.
Gusty winds and heavy downpours are possible in any showers, along
with lightning in any thunderstorms, temporarily degrading marine
conditions. Rain chances remain low (less than 10%) through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             87  76  90  79 /  80  30  20  10
HARLINGEN               86  74  91  76 /  80  20  20   0
MCALLEN                 87  75  92  78 /  80  20  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         84  73  88  75 /  70  30  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      85  79  86  80 /  80  30  20  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     87  75  89  78 /  80  30  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$