455
FXUS64 KBRO 051121 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
621 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A weak mid-level low pressure will maintain non-zero (albeit low,
less than 20%) chances of rain through Monday along the coast.
The primary concern for the short-term forecast are coastal
hazards. A high risk of rip currents is in place through tonight,
and a moderate risk of rip currents is in place through Sunday due
to long swell periods and elevated seas. A full moon on Monday,
Oct 6th, coupled with the moon nearing its perigee, will lead to
higher than normal tides. This, along with elevated seas aided by
easterly flow, brings the risk of minor coastal flooding to Gulf
facing beaches around times of high tide Sunday (2:56 AM, 2:06
PM). This will lead to run-up near or to the dunes, making beaches
narrow - exercise caution at beaches. A Coastal Flood Statement
is in effect for all Lower Texas beaches on today from midnight to
6 PM.

Rain chances increase to moderate (40-60%) beginning Tuesday and
remain elevated through midweek as deeper layer moisture returns to
the region with southeasterly flow. Mid-level ridging building over
the Gulf and S TX will allow for daily low to moderate chances of
rain through the remainder of the period.

Expect near to above normal temperatures, with highs in the 90s
(upper 80s along the coast) and lows in the upper 60s (ranchlands)
to mid 70s. A minor risk (level 1 of 4) of heat related impacts is
expected through Monday, climbing to a moderate risk (level 2 of 4)
by midweek as moisture increases feels-like temps into the low to
mid 100s across the RGV and coastal counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR continues to be anticipated at the aerodromes through the next
24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Moderate easterly winds reduce to light and primarily easterly with
some variability through Monday as a weak low pressure system in
the north-central Gulf moves inland, and moderate seas reducing
to slight as winds lessen. Low chance (less than 30%) of showers
and thunderstorms over the waters persists each day through
Monday, before increasing to moderate (30-60%) Tuesday for the
remainder of the period. Tuesday, moderate onshore winds return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  75  93  77 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN               93  71  95  73 /  10   0  10  10
MCALLEN                 96  75 100  76 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         96  71  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      86  79  87  81 /  10   0  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     89  74  91  75 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...None.
&&

$$