481
FXUS64 KBRO 052323
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
623 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

 - Coastal Flood Statement in effect through Monday evening along
   the Lower Texas beaches.

 - Moderate risk of rip currents through the weekend.

 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
   each day, increasing in coverage mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Daily low (20% or less) precipitation chances will continue
through Monday, mainly along and east of I-69E, as a weak mid
level low gradually translates from the north central Gulf toward
Texas Coast. This mornings 12Z sounding measured a precipitable
water value of 1.32 inches, which is with just above the 25th
percentile for this time of year according to SPCs sounding
climatology. Limited moisture content should result in mostly
rain-free conditions, although an isolated shower cannot be ruled
out along the immediate coast. Deterministic and ensemble guidance
indicate more favorable moisture content will arrive by Tuesday
or Wednesday, with precipitable water values expected to range
near or above the 75th percentile as southeasterly flow transports
rich, Gulf moisture. In combination with diurnal instability and
the sea breeze, low to medium (30-60%) rain chances are expected
each day Tuesday through the end of the week region wide. The
highest rain chances will reside closer to the immediate coast,
coinciding with the highest moisture content. Otherwise, expect
near to slightly above normal temperatures throughout the week,
with a minor (level 1 of 4) to moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk.

The Coastal Flood Statement was extended through Monday evening
based on observations seen from webcams along the South Padre
Island beaches. The combination of long-period swell and
proximity to the full moon and associated astronomical high tides
will result in narrow beaches near high tide cycles. High tide is
expected at 2:06 PM CDT this afternoon, 2:46 AM CDT Monday
morning, and 3:33 PM CDT Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Through 00z Tuesday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the 00z TAF cycle.

Easterly winds with speeds between 5-10 kts this evening will
trend towards light and variable to calm tonight. A southeasterly
component with speeds between 5-10 kts is expected to develop on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

A weak mid level low pressure over the north central Gulf is
expected to gradually move northwestward over the next day or two
and move inland along the Texas Coast by Monday. Expect light to
moderate winds and low to moderate seas throughout the forecast
period, with seas of 3-5 feet over the Gulf waters through the
weekend and 2-4 feet next week. Daily low to medium (20-50%) rain
chances return by Tuesday and continue throughout the week.
Locally enhanced winds and seas are likely within any showers or
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             75  93  77  92 /   0  10  10  40
HARLINGEN               71  95  72  93 /   0  10  10  40
MCALLEN                 75  99  77  97 /   0   0  10  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         71  99  73  97 /   0   0  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  88  80  88 /  10  10  20  40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     73  91  76  90 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma