436
FXUS64 KBRO 261720
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

The latest radar and satellite imagery depict isolated to
scattered activity along the immediate coast and Gulf waters this
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should
develop over the next few hours as increasing diurnal instability
interacts with high moisture content transported well established
low level southeasterly flow. Similar to previous days, any
impacts will be limited to brief, heavy rainfall, lightning, and
gusty winds to around 40 MPH. With the loss of daytime heating,
activity should wane by the evening hours.

Expect another mild night tonight and tomorrow night with lows in
the 70s. As winds become light, some patchy fog may develop
across portions of the region late tonight into early tomorrow
morning, but should quickly burn off by tomorrow morning.
Otherwise, expect near to slightly above normal temperatures
across Deep South Texas with heat index values ranging from
100-106 degrees this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Low
precipitation chances continue on Friday, but look to remain
around or below 20% as a plume of Saharan dust/slightly drier
begins to filter in from the east. This may result in some hazy
skies late in the day on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Near normal temperatures and daily low to medium (20-60%)
precipitation chances continue through next week. Most of the
region should remain rain-free on Saturday, with the exception
being along the immediate coast and Gulf waters. However, still
expecting more limited coverage and development as the plume of
Saharan dust translates west/northwest. An uptick in rain chances
(around 40-60%) return on Sunday and Monday as a shortwave
approaches the region. Most activity should remain diurnally-
driven with any thunderstorms that develop being capable of gusty
winds, lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. Heading into the
first few days of July, precipitation chances continue but should
be lower (around 20-30%) each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR and southeasterly winds will continue through the forecast
period at all TAF sites. Isolated to scattered convection may
develop near the terminals once again this afternoon. If activity
develops near/over the terminals, the main impacts will be brief
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning. Otherwise, activity
should dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Some patchy fog
may develop once again late tonight into early tomorrow morning,
but confidence at this time is too low to warrant a mention in the
TAF at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail through the
forecast period with low to moderate seas and light to moderate
southeast winds. Occasional gusts upwards cannot be ruled out
during the afternoon hours due to a locally enhanced pressure
gradient. Otherwise, daily chances for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will continue through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             77  92  78  92 /   0  10  10  20
HARLINGEN               73  94  75  93 /   0  10   0  20
MCALLEN                 77  97  77  97 /   0  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         74  95  76  95 /   0  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  87  79  87 /  10  10  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     76  91  77  91 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...22-Garcia