783
FXUS64 KBRO 211744 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1144 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

KBRO Doppler radar is showing bands of light rain and drizzle
moving off of the Gulf of America and into the eastern and central
portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. This
precipitation is being generated due to an inverted surface trough
of low pressure along the Lower Texas Coast. As the trough
gradually morphs into a closed area of low pressure during the
short term forecast period, precipitation chances will increase
across the BRO CWFA, especially today. Overall, scattered to
numerous areas of rainfall will occur through the entire period,
with the best chance occurring today. As the low begins to shift
east Saturday afternoon, the light rain and showers will be
confined more along and east of the Interstate 69E corridor.

Temperature-wise, well below normal daytime highs and overnight lows
are anticipated, courtesy of overcast skies, the sustained chance of
rain, and cold air advection sustained and reinforced by the
developing low.

Additionally, for this forecast cycle, the inherited Freeze Warning,
Cold Weather Advisory, and Winter Weather Advisory, all in effect
this morning for portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley, have been retained with no adjustments.

Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will ensure a
High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches throughout the
entire short term forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

The coastal low gradually ejects northeastward on Sunday, clearing
rain chances for the new week and bringing back abundant sunshine
to Deep South Texas. This will bring high temperatures back
towards normal and then above normal for breezy Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons. Low temperatures are slower to come back
around without the blanket of any cloud cover and light winds.
Radiational cooling will drop lows back into the 40s both Saturday
and Sunday nights. Near normal lows return through mid week. The
next front arrives generally dry on Thursday from the Pacific NW
with a brief northerly breeze.

May have to monitor for enhanced fire weather following the front
on Thursday, with RH values expected to drop, freeze cured fuels,
and worsening drought conditions across Zapata, Jim Hogg, and
Starr counties especially. At the moment, 20 foot wind speeds only
briefly pick up with the front, but drop off soon after.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Mostly MVFR and IFR conditions are to be expected for the majority
of the TAF cycle at all TAF sites. There is a possibility of LIFR
conditions during the overnight hours due lower ceilings expected.
Mostly light northerly winds are also expected to continue to
persist through the TAF cycle as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Today through Saturday...Buoy 42020 reported northeast winds
around 18 knots gusting to around 21 knots with seas slightly
under 7 feet with a period of 8 seconds at 1:50 CST/7:50 UTC.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory
conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast during the
period as an inverted surface trough of low pressure gradually
transitions to a closed area of low pressure. Increasing winds and
building seas are anticipated as the pressure gradient increases
due to the formation of the low.

Saturday Night through Thursday...The coastal low gradually pulls
away from the lower Texas coast on Sunday, allowing marine
conditions to continue to improve into the new week. Expect any
lingering SCA or SCEC conditions to drop off by Monday. Generally
favorable marine conditions prevail into Thursday before the next
cold front arrives with SCEC to borderline SCA conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             48  39  49  44 /  70  50  40  30
HARLINGEN               47  38  48  42 /  80  60  50  30
MCALLEN                 45  38  49  44 /  70  50  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         43  36  48  41 /  50  50  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      57  50  52  47 /  80  70  50  40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     52  44  51  43 /  80  60  50  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ248>255-
     353.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...64-Katz