665
FXUS64 KBRO 230419 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1019 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

An area of low pressure off the Lower Texas coast will continue to
maintain well below normal temperatures, overcast skies, and periods
of light rain/drizzle tonight into tomorrow across Deep South Texas.
Persistent northerly flow at the surface will maintain cold air
advection, and in combination with cloudy skies, will keep low
temperatures tonight in the upper 30s and 40s. High res guidance
indicates another round of light rain will develop generally along
and east of US-281 tonight, with patchy drizzle west of US-281 not
out of the question. All in all, another cold February night for
Deep South Texas.

We should start to see an improvement in conditions by mid to late
morning tomorrow from west to east as the aforementioned area of low
pressure translates northward and its influence lessens across the
region. Periods of light drizzle and rain will continue through late
tomorrow morning into early afternoon mainly over the northern and
eastern portions of the region before coming to an end. Cloud cover
is also expected to clear by the early to mid afternoon hours, with
the exception being along the Lower Texas beaches where cloud cover
may linger into the late afternoon hours. The return of plentiful
sunshine should allow for better insolation despite weak northerly
flow at the surface and result in high temperatures warming mostly
into the 60s. Highs may remain in the upper 50s along the Lower
Texas coast if cloud cover lingers into the late afternoon hours.
Minor adjustments to tomorrow`s high temperature may still be needed
in subsequent updates depending on how quickly or slowly cloud cover
clears as the low pressure exits the region. Sunday night will
feature clear skies and light winds, which should aid in promoting
radiational cooling processes and allow for temperatures to fall
into upper 30s and 40s after a generally warm Sunday afternoon (in
comparison to the latter half of the week).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

The start of the long term forecast will move off the Lower Texas
Coast during the day on Monday as well as the coastal trough that
has been hanging around Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
This will allow for a near normal weather for around late February
to return to the area. Generally rain free conditions are expected
even with the front expected to push through the region on Thursday.
While a short lived northerly flow will affect the area right after
the front, allowing for some colder air to move into the region
behind the front. Given that the skies for the long term forecast
period are expected to be mostly clear, this will mean that there
will plenty of Radiational cooling for Thursday night. However by
Friday, the winds are expected to turn back to the south again,
allowing for temperatures to warm back up quickly again.

As mentioned in the previous Long Term Forecast Discussion, the
minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop into the range
of mid 20s to low 30s for most of the region. However, with the 20-
foot winds appearing to stay under 10 mph, the concern for elevate
fire weather this far out is low. There is a possibility of some
marine dense fog that could impact coastal areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

IFR conditions will prevail through the overnight with light
northerly wind. Some patchy fog may develop overnight, but
confidence is too low on this development to add to the TAF
package. Conditions will begin to improve west to east with MVFR
conditions expected by midday Sunday and further improvement to
VFR by mid to late afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Tonight through Sunday night...Adverse marine conditions will
prevail through the period over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre as
an area of low pressure over the western Gulf translates north. A
Small Craft Advisory is in effect through tomorrow evening over the
Gulf waters as winds and seas remain elevated, and Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions will prevail over the Laguna Madre.
Periods if light rain and drizzle will continue through early
tomorrow morning before gradually tapering off as the low pressure
shifts north.

Monday through Next Saturday....As the coastal low moves off towards
the east, more favorable conditions will take over the Lower Texas
Coast until a cold front brings more breezy conditions to the area
on Thursday. However winds should come down soon after. There is a
possibility of some marine fog during the early part of the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             41  62  45  73 /  30   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               38  61  43  75 /  30   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 42  66  45  79 /  20   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         41  69  42  80 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      43  57  51  67 /  40  10   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     39  59  46  70 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....64
AVIATION...68-McGinnis