132
FXUS64 KBRO 121132 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
532 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 404 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Today will be very warm to hot with well above normal temperatures.
Highs this afternoon are expected to reach the low to mid 90s due to
downsloping winds in advance of a cold front. Near to record
breaking will be possible today. The records for today are as
follows, Brownsville...89, Harlingen 93, and McAllen 91. A
stationary front extends across central Texas early this morning.
This boundary is expected to linger roughly in the same place for
much of the day before transitioning to a cold front this evening. A
surge of surface high pressure early tonight will push the cold
front through Deep South Texas late tonight into early Thursday
morning. Lows tonight should range from the low 50s across the
northern ranchlands to the low to mid 60s across the lower Valley.
Fog will be likely tonight ahead of a high pressure surge and cold
front. The fog is expected to diminish late tonight into Thursday
morning as the front sweeps through the area. The front then is
expected to become stationary south of the Rio Grande River on
Thursday. Broad mid-level troughing over the West will provide a
southwest flow over the Deep South Texas through the period.

The combination of weak lift along the stationary frontal boundary
and ample moisture (PWATs between 1.3 to 1.6 inches) will support a
low to medium chance (20 to 40 percent) of light rain on Thursday.
The best rain chances will remain over the Gulf waters. Otherwise,
Thursday will be cloudy and cool with daytime temperatures between
20 to 25 degrees cooler than today. Daytime highs on the Thursday
should remain in the 50s, a few locations near the coast may reach
the low 60s early.

The Rip current risk is Moderate for today and tonight becoming High
on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 404 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Isolated to scattered showers are anticipated Thursday night
through Friday due to the passage of a cold front prior to the
start of the period. Despite the late Saturday night to early
Sunday morning passage of another cold front, dry weather will
prevail Friday night through the end of the long term forecast
period.

Temperature-wise, rollercoaster daytime highs and overnight lows
will occur, as the passage of the fronts cools values and the
approach of the late weekend front briefly warms them. The warmest
highs are anticipated for Saturday in advance of the second cold
front, with the coldest lows expected Monday morning in association
with that same boundary.

At the local beaches, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast
will nearly guarantee a Moderate Risk to High Risk of rip currents
due to the two frontal passages.

Beyond the end of the long term forecast period, some model
guidance suggests that high pressure building south from Canada
will drive a cold front through the BRO CWFA around Wednesday 19
February. This scenario could lead to a brief, but significant,
cool-down around that time and a return to more winter-like
conditions for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Moderate to gusty southeast to south winds and MVFR ceilings
prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Ceilings are
expected to lift around mid-morning, especially at HRL and MFE.
The continued southeasterly flow near the coast may keep periods
of high MVFR ceilings at BRO through late morning into the early
afternoon. Light and variable winds are likely this afternoon at
MFE and HRL with mainly southeast to south winds prevailing at
BRO. Low clouds and fog with MVFR/IFR conditons are expected to
develop later this evening, mainly after 03Z. LIFR conditions will
be possible late in the period as ceilings lower and visibilities
drop.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 404 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast winds around 14 knots gusting
to around 16 knots with seas slightly over 3.6 feet with a period
of 5 seconds at 2:50 CST/8:50 UTC. Light to moderate south to
southeast winds and moderate seas are expected today. Light to
moderate east winds this evening will become northeast late
tonight as a cold front moves into the Lower Texas Coastal waters.
More widespread and thicker fog will develop tonight ahead of the
front across the Laguna Madre and the nearshore Gulf waters. In
the wake of the front, strong north to northeast winds and high
seas will prevail on Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely
be needed by this evening.

(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Adverse marine conditions, requiring Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution and Small Craft Advisory, are anticipated Thursday night
through Saturday due to the passage of a cold front prior to the
beginning of the period. Another burst of Caution and Advisory
winds and seas is expected Sunday through Sunday night due to the
passage of another cold front. Conditions will then improve for
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 404 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Today: Drier air is expected to filter into the western portions of
the region this afternoon. However, the combination of winds at the
20-foot level and relative humidity percentages is not expected to
prompt a Fire Weather Watch or subsequent Red Flag Warning for that
time. In fact, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement also may not be
needed, either.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             89  64  65  52 /   0   0  40  50
HARLINGEN               90  60  62  49 /   0   0  30  50
MCALLEN                 93  61  64  50 /   0  10  30  40
RIO GRANDE CITY         92  59  59  47 /   0   0  30  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      76  64  64  56 /   0   0  40  60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     86  63  63  52 /   0   0  40  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Thursday
     afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...63-KC