378
FXUS64 KBRO 031114 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
614 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

The mid-level ridge of high pressure across Baja California builds
into West Texas through next week. Weaker pressure along the lower
Texas coast and daily pulses of moisture may help pop up isolated
showers or thunderstorms along the sea breeze each afternoon into
early evening, with most locations remaining dry. At the moment,
Tuesday afternoon has the best POPs of the forecast period at 25
percent along and east of US281. Expect near to slightly above
normal temperatures through the week, with Heat Indices of 105 to
110 degrees daily, driving a Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk across
most of the RGV Sunday and Monday, and a Moderate (level 2 of 4)
to Major Heat Risk the remainder of the week. Additional Special
Weather Statements will likely be needed or potentially brief Heat
Advisories along the coastal counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

VFR conditions are likely to prevail throughout the 12Z TAF cycle,
despite patches of lower clouds, which may result in brief
periods of MVFR ceilings over the next several hours before
dissipating. Moderate southeasterly winds return (generally,
around 10-15 knots, gusting up 20 knots) throughout the morning
and into the early evening, settling down beyond sunset to light
and/or variable overnight Sunday. A PROB30 has been included for
KMFE as high resolution models continue to hint at the possibility
of convection late Sunday afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Light to moderate southeasterly winds and favorable seas are
expected to prevail through the forecast period. There remains a
low chance of showers and thunderstorms offshore next week,
especially Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Brownsville broke a 123-year daily record high yesterday with 101
degrees (previously 100 degrees in 1902), with the daily record
highs at Valley International in Harlingen (102 degrees,
previously 101 degrees in 1953) and McAllen (105 degrees,
previously 104 degrees in 2009) also falling. Additional records
may be approached or broken Sunday and Monday.

Sunday, August 3rd Record High Temperatures
Brownsville: 102 in 1915
Harlingen: 102 in 2023
McAllen: 105 in 2022

Monday, August 4th Record High Temperatures
Brownsville: 101 in 2023
Harlingen: 102 in 2023
McAllen: 105 in 2023

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             98  79  97  79 /  10   0  10  10
HARLINGEN              101  76 100  75 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                104  79 103  79 /  10  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY        105  77 104  76 /  10  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  81  89  80 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     95  78  95  77 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
CLIMATE...56-Hallman
AVIATION...65-Irish