033
FXUS64 KBRO 031123 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
623 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

High pressure across the Gulf continues to build through the end
of the week, with drier air gradually cutting off rain chances
before most Independence Day celebrations. Most of any leftover
showers remain generally light tonight, with the best chance of
rain shifting further north and coastal to offshore into early
Thursday and across the brush country on Friday. Still expect near
normal highs and lows, with cloud cover slowly diminishing
through Friday. The humidity will help drive a Moderate (level 2
of 4) Heat Risk across the RGV through Independence Day.

With it being a holiday weekend, nice weather, and a very
borderline rip current situation due to wave heights around 3 ft
and swell period at times reaching above 5 seconds, will bump up
the rip current risk to moderate Thursday and Friday for some
additional awareness.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

The mid-level ridge pivots back across the Desert SW through the
holiday weekend, allowing weak 500mb low pressure to nestle along
the lower Texas coast and some low level moisture to bring back
some rain chances. Above normal PWATs return Saturday into
Wednesday, increasing POPs each afternoon towards 20 percent,
mainly along the sea breeze, especially Monday and Tuesday. Drier
air arrives by mid to late week as high pressure briefly builds
again. Expect near to slightly above normal temperatures through
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Currently a range of ceiling levels from IFR to VFR are in the
region and could continue for a couple of hours till after
sunrise. However ceilings are expected to rise to VFR by mid-
morning and should persist until late tonight, when low-level
clouds return and ceilings return to MVFR. Southeasterly winds are
expected to continue as well with some gustier winds during the
afternoon hours with winds gusting around 20 knots. While a rogue
shower is possible, confidence was not high enough to include in
the TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Now through Next Thursday...Surface high pressure generally holds
across the Western Gulf with light to briefly moderate
southeasterly winds through the forecast period, allowing seas to
gradually diminish by the weekend and remain favorable through
Thursday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms offshore gradually
taper off through tomorrow before returning again Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             91  78  92  78 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               92  76  93  76 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 94  78  95  78 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         91  75  94  75 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      86  80  87  80 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     89  78  90  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...64-Katz