280
FXUS64 KBRO 250331
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1031 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A weak upper level disturbance will continue to provide some
instability to help the development of showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon tomorrow. Rain chances for this part of the
forecast period are medium (around 40-50%). However, mid-level ridge
is expected to build into the region by the middle of the work week,
which will bring subsidence and dry air to the region. Thus, the
chances for rain will start to decrease by Wednesday and through
most of the forecast period. By the start of the next weekend,
another disturbance is expected to approach the region and that will
bring about another possible round of showers and thunderstorms.

With mid-level ridging returning to the forecast, heat risk will
become the focus of the forecast. The heat risk for the forecast
period is a mixture of Minor (level 1 of 4) and Moderate (level 2 of
4). The heat indices are mostly in the range of 105-110 for the
forecast period. However, there are a few days, notably Tuesday and
Friday that the heat indices do rise above 111 for a period of time
during the afternoon. However, confidence is not high at this point
to conclude that a Heat Advisory will be needed, but a Special
Weather Statement for elevated heat indices might be needed.

Lastly, the rip current risk along the Lower Texas Coast is low for
the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue for the majority of the
TAF cycle at all TAF sites. Light and generally southerly to
southeasterly winds are expected and some low-level clouds could
move over the region at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected for the forecast
period as light southerly to southeasterly winds persist. Medium
chances (40-50%) of rain through Wednesday each afternoon. After
that, mid-level ridge moves into the region limiting the chances for
rain until next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  93  79  94 /  50  50  20  30
HARLINGEN               73  94  75  96 /  40  60  20  40
MCALLEN                 78  96  79  98 /  30  60  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  97  76  99 /  20  50  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  89  82  89 /  50  40  30  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     76  91  78  93 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...64