547
FXUS64 KBRO 212330 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
630 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 629 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

 - Hot and dry conditions will continue through the forecast period.

 - Moderate (level 2 of 4) to major risk (3 of 4) of heat-related impacts
   through the weekend with peak afternoon heat indices generally
   between 105 to around 110 degrees.

 - The combination of breezy and mostly dry weather coinciding
   with low afternoon minimum relative humidity values brings a
   continued risk of fire weather into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

No changes to the going forecast. Upper level ridging continues to
lead to hot temperatures and dry conditions across Deep South Texas.
Temperatures each day will rise into the upper 90s (closer to the
coast) to low 100s with heat indices between 105-110F expected. We
continue to remain just shy of Heat Advisory criteria each day but a
few locations may briefly exceed 111F. Will continue to monitor for
the need of Heat Advisories, though at this time Special Weather
Statements should suffice. There is a Moderate (level 2 of 4) to
Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk every afternoon into next week.

While dry conditions will prevail (less than 5%), can not rule out
very isolated sea breeze activity through the remainder of the
period.

Breezy conditions in combination of lower RH value and abnormally
dry conditions could lead to the potential for rapid wildfire
spread if ignited. While we will look to fall shy of and Red Flag
Warnings or Fire Danger Statements, outdoor burning is not
recommended.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Southeast winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts around 25 kts prevail
across Deep South Texas early this evening. Winds are expected to
decrease later this evening and overnight. Southeast winds will
increase and become moderate and gusty mid to late morning. Some
gusts up to 25 knots will be possible in the afternoon. VFR
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

While generally favorable conditions will prevail, an enhanced
pressure gradient along the immediate coast may result in brief
Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions at times across the
Laguna Madre. Otherwise, expect light to moderate southeasterly
winds with 2 to 3 ft seas and 4 to 6 second periods.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  99  79  98 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               76 104  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 79 105  78 104 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         77 105  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  90  80  89 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  98  78  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68-AM
LONG TERM....68-AM
AVIATION...63-KC