513
FXUS64 KBRO 221731 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

A few low top showers, some with brief heavy rainfall, have been
observed across portions of Cameron Count. Satellite also showing
lots of puffing cumulus but no lightning is being observed likely
due to a moderate cap. Added low pops (20%) to Cameron and Hidalgo
for the first half of the afternoon as the sea breeze drifts west.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

After Monday`s convection, the opportunity for additional
precipitation becomes focused more to the west during this portion
of the total forecast. The approach and passage of a series of
disturbances at the 500 mb level will produce showers and
thunderstorms over the higher terrain of neighboring Mexico today
through Wednesday. This convection will have the potential to
reach the western inland portion of the BRO CWFA. As a result, a
20 percent to 30 percent chance of rainfall will exist, generally
for Zapata, Starr, Jim Hogg, and Brooks counties. Luckily, the
Storm Prediction Center does not suggest the potential for any
strong to severe thunderstorms for this region. Temperature-wise,
slightly above normal daytime highs and well above normal
overnight lows are forecast courtesy of the lessened chance for
precipitation (compared to Monday) and associated decreased cloud
cover.

Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will result in a
Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches through the short
term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Zonal upper level flow will persist through this week, bringing dry,
warm weather to Deep South Texas.  There is a small chance of
precipitation (around 20%) for Zapata, Starr, and Jim Hogg Counties
on Thursday due to dissipating convection navigating off the higher
terrain of Mexico.  After Thursday, however, Deep South Texas should
dry up and remain rain-free through the beginning of next week.

Winds are expected to be southeasterly throughout the week,
advecting humid air and warm temperatures into the region.  High
temperatures will steadily warm from the upper 80s/lower 90s to the
mid-to-upper 90s by next week due to decreasing cloud cover as the
weekend approaches. Low temperatures are expected to remain constant
in the low to mid 70s throughout the week, with mostly cloudy skies
overnights.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

MVFR ceilings are gradually rising with VFr ceiling anticipated
for the a few hours the latter half of the afternoon and early
evening. Marine layer moves inland before midnight with MVFR
ceilings developing once again around 2500 feet and trending
lowering overnight as the surface inversion lowers. Gusty
southeast winds with gusts as high as 25 knots tapper off later
this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Today through Wednesday...Buoy 42020 reported east-
southeast winds around 6 knots gusting to around 8 knots with seas
slightly over 4.5 feet with a period of 9 seconds at 1:50 CDT/6:50
UTC. Generally moderate winds and seas are expected along the Lower
Texas Coast through the period with surface high pressure in
control. However, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution cannot be
entirely ruled out for Wednesday on the lower Texas coastal waters
as the pressure gradient begins to strengthen.

Wednesday Night through next Monday...Southeasterly winds will
prevail and conditions should be slightly adverse Tuesday night
through the weekend.  On Monday of next week, winds should slightly
pick up and seas should slightly build due to a tightening pressure
gradient and SCEC conditions may be a possibility heading into next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             85  75  85  75 /  20   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               88  72  88  72 /  20  10   0   0
MCALLEN                 90  75  91  75 /  20  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         91  74  90  74 /  20  30  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  74  79  75 /  10  10   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     84  73  84  72 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...59-GB