691
FXUS64 KBRO 032323 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
623 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

 - Increased Rip Current risk this weekend.

 - Daily chance for isolated showers along the sea breeze.

 - Increased rain chances later half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

This Weekend Broad mid-level high pressure over the Ohio River
Valley and mid-level low pressure over the Central Gulf will look
to largely remain in place through the weekend, supporting low-
level easterly flow across the Gulf. This long fetch length will
lead to increased surf height and stronger rip currents this
weekend. Additionally, this low level easterly flow will continue
to advect additional moisture to the region, presenting the
opportunity for daily isolated to scattered showers along the
afternoon sea breeze. The best rain chances look to be confined to
areas along and east of I-69C/US281. Dry air aloft will likely
inhibit deep convection, limiting the potential for thunderstorms
to develop.

Monday through next Friday The low pressure system over the Gulf
dissipates early next week as the aforementioned high pressure
system moves off the eastern seaboard. This will support primarily
southerly to southeasterly winds across the Gulf, allowing surf
heights and rip currents to subside. By midweek, an upper-level
ridge looks to build over the Southern Plains, with the mid level
high displaced slightly to the east. This will once again support
generally easterly low-level flow across the Northern Gulf, which
could increase surf height and rip current strength by the end of
the period. Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers along
the sea breeze will continue early next week.

At the same time, a weak surface low looks to develop over the
South-Central Gulf, and progress westward. Depending on how far
north this system tracks, it could increase rain chances across
the CWA in the later half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the TAF
period, with a NE breeze Saturday afternoon. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected along the coast early Saturday
and inland along the sea breeze through the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

High pressure over the eastern US and a weak low over the Central
Gulf will likely support moderate easterly flow across the
Northern Gulf. The long fetch length will likely support moderate
seas and increased swell periods through the weekend. This pattern
looks to break down early next week, allowing generally slight
seas to return through mid week as winds across the gulf shift
more southerly. The easterly fetch will likely return by mid week
as high pressure develop over the Southeast, once again building
moderate seas by the end of the period.

Light to moderate onshore winds look to persist through the period
along the Lower Texas Coast. The latest forecast guidance keeps
seas just below criteria for Small Craft Should Exercise Cation
headlines this weekend and late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             75  89  75  92 /  20  30  10  20
HARLINGEN               71  91  70  92 /  10  30  10  20
MCALLEN                 73  94  74  97 /  10  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         70  95  70  97 /  10  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  86  79  86 /  20  30  20  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     74  87  73  89 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...56-Hallman