310
FXUS64 KBRO 061921 CCA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
221 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 109 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

* At least a low to medium (30-40%) chance of rain returns
  tomorrow into Friday across the entire region as well as a
  medium to likely (50-70%) chance along and east of US-281/I-69 C
  through Thursday.

* Heavy rain is possible, especially closer to the coast across
  the lower Rio Grande Valley along and east of I-69 E.

* A medium risk for rip currents continues through tomorrow and
  will be possible through the remainder of this week.

* A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through Tuesday
  evening along the Lower Texas Coast beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Dry conditions and southeasterly winds are expected through the
remainder of the day today as ridging and subsidence aloft continues
along with drier than average PWAT values, which is around 1.50-1.55
inches for this time of year. Overnight tonight, a high pressure
entering the Northern Plains shifts south-southeasterly winds to
more southeasterly-easterly, advecting more Gulf moisture inland,
resulting in above average PWAT values tomorrow into Friday,
potentially surpassing 2.0 inches across the RGV, highest along
the coast. As this moisture interacts with daytime instability,
there is at least a low to medium (30-40%) chance of rain across
all of Deep South Texas as showers and thunderstorms develop along
the seabreeze boundary throughout the morning and afternoon
hours. Along and east of US-281/I-69 C, daily PoP`s increase from
a medium (50-60%) chance tomorrow and Wednesday to likely (70%)
chance on Thursday. Drier air advecting into the CWA behind a cold
front over the southeastern US is likely to reduce chances of
rain from a low to medium (20-40%) chance on Friday to a low (15%
or less) chance over the weekend and early next week as ridging
and subsidence aloft return. In the meantime, any convection that
develops has the potential for producing heavy rain, especially
closer to the coast, where the highest PWAT levels reside.

Near average high temperatures (lower to mid 90`s) inland and mid-
80`s along the immediate coast continue. Above average overnight
lows persist through Thursday night, with lows mostly in the 70`s
before cooling to the 60`s and lower 70`s by Friday night, while
temperatures fall to near 80 degF at the coast. A mostly minor
(level 1/4) heat risk continues, though portions of the RGV can
expect a moderate (level 2/4) heat risk through Thursday.

A medium risk for rip currents through tomorrow and may continue
into the later parts of this week as south-southeasterly winds
become east-northeasterly tonight into tomorrow while long period
swells sustain. The combined effects from the full moon this
evening, long period swells and elevated wave heights have
resulted in the extension of the Coastal Flood Statement through
tomorrow evening. Minor coastal flooding is possible within a few
hours of leading into and out of high tide cycles, such as 3:33 PM
this afternoon, 2:39 AM tonight and 4:56 PM tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Southeasterly winds of around 5-10 knots, gusting to 15-20 knots,
are likely across all terminals later this afternoon, before
becoming light and variable overnight. VFR and dry conditions
continue for most of the rest of the TAF cycle, although PROB30`s
have been introduced for KBRO and KHRL beginning tomorrow morning
as moisture elevates across the region tonight into tomorrow.
Gentle (5-10 knots) easterly winds pick up by the afternoon hours
tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate (2-3
ft) seas continue into tomorrow, becoming east-northeasterly
tomorrow night. Moderate east northeasterly winds and moderate
seas (3-5 ft) develop Wednesday into Friday as the result of a
slight pressure gradient before gentle to moderate east-
southeasterly winds return over the weekend. There is a medium to
likely (40-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             93  77  92  77 /   0  10  60  50
HARLINGEN               95  73  92  73 /   0  10  50  30
MCALLEN                100  77  96  77 /  10  10  50  40
RIO GRANDE CITY         99  73  96  73 /   0  10  30  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  81  87  80 /   0  10  50  50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     91  76  90  76 /   0  10  50  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...65