217
FXUS64 KBRO 230417 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1017 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1246 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

After a few cool mornings and pleasant afternoons, a warming
trend will ensue across Deep South Texas, bringing well above
normal temperatures for late November. Low level southerly to
southeasterly flow will allow for an uptick in humidity, but the
influence of mid level ridging will keep it rain-free. Light to
calm winds and clear skies will promote another night of
radiational cooling processes, but it won`t be quite as cool as
previous nights with the return of light onshore flow. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the low 50s across the
Northern Ranchlands to upper 50s across the Rio Grande Valley,
but a few locales make dip into the upper 40s across the Northern
Ranchlands. Persistent onshore flow will yield a warm and mild
Saturday afternoon with highs in the 80s, about 5-10 degrees above
normal for late November. The warming trend will continue into
Saturday night, with lows mostly in the 60s region wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1246 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

The upcoming work week should boast of mostly quiet weather, with
a couple of weak cold fronts to keep an eye on Tuesday morning and
Thursday. I loaded the latest NBM model suite for the afternoon
forecast package. That said, I will try not to be sesquipedalian
with what should be an abbreviated, straightforward discussion.

Hazards will be limited except for modest marine impacts,
discussed in the marine section below, of slightly higher winds
Saturday night through Monday due to a tighter pressure gradient.
The slightly enhanced wave heights could result in a moderate risk
of rip currents. Another period of elevated rip current risk
(moderate to high) might occur later in the week in association
with a second push of high pressure and another cold front. Not
only will return flow increase on Wednesday, but the second,
stronger front will bring a shift to strong north winds and higher
seas Thursday afternoon to Friday and possibly even Saturday.
Notwithstanding the above, rain chances will be limited through
the forecast and the only mention right now is over the marine
areas.

Perhaps the main discussion point will be the lower temperatures
following the Thursday cold front. For the first half of the week,
temperatures will trend warmer (above normal) with ongoing return
flow. While the temperature decrease Thursday night into Friday
will be short-lived and will only bring temperatures down to near
or even slightly below normal, the change will be enough to
conjure up the term "fall-like" weather. Relative humidity values
will indeed plummet all the way to the coast resulting in very
pleasant, moderate, Friday weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1016 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light and
variable winds will turn more southeasterly later tonight into
Saturday. Saturday afternoon winds will pick up slightly with
gust in the afternoon up to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Tonight through Saturday night...Favorable marine conditions will
prevail through the period with generally light winds and low
seas. Wind speeds will begin to increase late Saturday night due
to a tightening pressure gradient.

Sunday through Wednesday night...Mainly moderate southeast to
south winds and moderate seas will prevail. Slightly enhanced
winds (15 to 20 kts) will develop Saturday night through Monday
due to the tighter gradient caused by Gulf high pressure
interacting with lower southern Plains pressure. Small craft
should exercise caution headlines will be possible on the Gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             60  82  67  85 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               55  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 59  86  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         55  84  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      69  78  73  81 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     60  81  65  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....54
AVIATION...68